'We won't be back to 2019 for five years'

[RainbowParadise]

www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-54661843

Has anyone else seen this? I feel completely on the edge after reading this, people surely will not comply with this shit show indefinitely?

[lovelemoncurd]

Yep we are going to hit multiple waves until a vaccine changes anything. I predict the next wave will be May 2021. I'm not sure why this is a surprise to anyone.

[MrPickles73]

There are multiple options

• Fiddle about as we are with lockdowns and run the economy into the ground. Loads of people on some kind of furlough. Massive cost and anxiety and uncertainty. Hope for a vaccine. Covid lasts 2 years from now i.e. into 2022/2023.
  
• We get a grip of who is at risk and who isn't. Financially support those who need to shield. The rest of us take sensible precautions e.g. WFH where possible but no lockdowns, no locking up university students. Sweden style. If we do this I think we can minimize it by next Easter / summer.
  
• Get to grip

[RainbowParadise]

Because at no point in modern history has a pandemic forced such massive changes to society and people's lives for five years? Maybe that's why I'm surprised this is being suggested?

I cannot understand the timing of this article either. Right before the prospect of another full lockdown when compliance isn't going to be as high as in March.

[KatherineJaneway]

Life will eventually get to the point where most of us are able to go about our business without masks and distancing but life in some respects has changed irrevocably and we will never 'go back'.

[RainbowParadise]

In what ways do you think life has changed irrevocably?

[ChardonnaysPetDragon]

Yep we are going to hit multiple waves until a vaccine changes anything. I predict the next wave will be May 2021. I'm not sure why this is a surprise to anyone.

Sorry, what are your qualifications that allow you to predict things with such a confidence?

[Racoonworld]

People just won’t comply with it. I certainly won’t and have stuck to the majority of the rules all year. There’s no way I will comply next year, I’m already considering not complying now if there’s another lockdown

[divafever99]

Jesus, what a depressing article. Wish I hadn't read it now. I'm in a tier 3 area, we've had restrictions on us since July. People are weary, I don't think they will comply for that long.

[RainbowParadise]

@Racoonworld and @divafever99 I really hope people don't comply. This isn't right, it just really isn't right at all.

[cushioncovers]

Until we have a vaccine widely available for all or the virus weakens and dies out we will not be returning to normal' imo

[diddlediddle]

I think that projection sounds about right. Even with a vaccine on its way I can't see us living in the same way for years, if ever - I see films of festivals etc and think, god imagine being that close to all those people.

The other concern is that the likelihood of another, different pandemic is still fairly high and apparently growing as climate change etc erodes the natural world. The next one might be even worse and could easily happen in 5 years time.

I agree with PP - it's not surprising, however it is incredibly sad and frightening. We all wish things could just go back to how they were.

[RainbowParadise]

There really is no point in being alive then is there. None at all.

[Racoonworld]

@RainbowParadise if enough of us don’t comply what are they going to do? There’s already a large amount not, what happens when it gets to 80%? I’m giving it until spring then I’m not doing it anymore.

[diddlediddle]

Well, it can certainly feel that way, I agree. I'm sorry you're feeling so low. It is hard to come to terms with the reality of the situation. The issue isn't whether people comply with whatever limits the government suggests, they may or may not. The virus doesn't care, it will still be here, affecting the way people live.

[lovelemoncurd]

@ChardonnaysPetDragon well I'm not a member of Sage but I am usually correct and worked in infectious diseases for a number of years and I've been studying the peaks and troughs. I don't really have to justify anything though. Like any poster on here this is just my opinion.

[RainbowParadise]

@Racoonworld I agree with you completely.

@diddlediddle it's not the 'reality of the situation'. We (well governments) have choices about how this is responded to and surely we should be questioning the response?

[diddlediddle]

Yes as I said, im not referring to the response, I'm referring to the fact that no matter what the response there are likely to be waves of infection/peaks and troughs, and even if the government did nothing, people would take their own view as to how to protect themselves from the risk (eg masks, social distancing etc) and things won't be normal.

[Racoonworld]

@diddlediddle I don’t care if things aren’t 100% normal. Can cope with not going into shops, going to large festivals, going to theatre etc. I cannot cope with not seeing family and friends. Not having them hold my baby. No small parties. I won’t comply with any rules that restrict those things and most people I know feel the same.

[RainbowParadise]

Ah ok. I guess it comes down to people making their own choices as to how they respond to the virus. I guess some people will remain cautious. But surely people need to be given freedom to choose.

If young people (and not just young but you know what I mean!) want to rub up against eachother in a field in Glastonbury then let them crack on basically! Same goes for theatre, live sport etc. No more making it illegal not to get close to friends/family.

I'm seriously thinking of starting smoking again. I really don't want to reach old age, life is awful!

[diddlediddle]

Yes I agree, those are the things that matter.

All I said was that I agree life won't be the same as before 🤷🏼‍♀️

[RainbowParadise]

[quote Racoonworld]@diddlediddle I don’t care if things aren’t 100% normal. Can cope with not going into shops, going to large festivals, going to theatre etc. I cannot cope with not seeing family and friends. Not having them hold my baby. No small parties. I won’t comply with any rules that restrict those things and most people I know feel the same.[/quote]
I agree with those being the most fundamental things @Racoonworld but I also think we can't put the rest of normal life on hold indefinitely either. All of our culture and the things that make us human.

I was discussing this with someone at work and we agreed that science/medicine preserves life but the arts/sports/literature and of course close contact, all of those things are what make life worth living. There really is no point hiding away from a virus to merely exist.

[midgebabe]

You can let people do what they want, but have you though about the consequences?

All those cancer treatments being stopped again because of a lack of hospital resources, beds, staff.

And don't suggest just shielding the vulnerable, because we know that means anyone over 45 if you want your child to get treated when they break their leg

I know it's tough. Our government are criminal putting us back in this situation. A bit of extra cash for the truely vulnerable ...those who had to go out to work even when they should have been isolating ....would have saved the country billions. But they hate handing cash to people.

[KatherineJaneway]

@RainbowParadise

In what ways do you think life has changed irrevocably?

One example - for some sectors working from home. I know my company will never go back to a majority being in the office. That's a huge change in work culture and on the businesses that survive around office workers.

[BuffaloCauliflower]

@midgebabe there’s still a choice going on there. They could choose to treat the cancer patients and not the covid patients couldn’t they? Why they assumption that is HAS to mean reducing services for everything except Covid? These lockdowns were meant to protect the NHS so it could continue vital services, not turn the NHS into a Covid only servicez

[RainbowParadise]

@midgebabe the thing is, most people agreed that we needed to take measures to slow the spread of the virus.

I would hazard a guess too that most people will not accept everything about our previous way of life being completely torn apart for such a length of time.

Life is about living, not existing. We are hearing good things about the Oxford vaccine so let's really hope that's a pile of shite in that article anyway.

I guess it comes down to this- it will be an absolute disaster for so much of our culture to be destroyed. But they will be completely unable to stop people dating/seeing friends and family. Perhaps that will happen- Very few will comply.