The government has told us it is safe to go back to school and the office because we now have a functional test and trace system in place.
However, its glaringly obvious that there is not enough testing capacity. There are already lots of stories on here from people who are struggling to get a test.
Let's assume the average person will need to be tested twice over the next six months of cold and flu season. (I'm being generous here and think this is likely to be an underestimate).
The population of the UK is approximately 68 million.
That means we need 136 million tests over the next 6 months.
Or about three quarters of a million tests a day.
This assumes that demand will be steady over the next six months but it will probably peak in December and January and we would need more like 1 million tests a day.
Current testing capability is said to be 200 - 250,000 per day so we need to triple or quadruple capacity for the winter.
It's vital that there is enough capacity over the winter so we can identify who has coronavirus and who has normal respiratory illnesses. Without this people will be isolating unnecessarily for days, parents will have to be off school looking after ill children and people will ignore guidance because they can't afford to take time off. More importantly, we need to identify where the true cases of coronavirus are quickly to prevent us being back in the same situation as we were in March and April.
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Covid
We don't have enough testing capacity for the winter
5 replies
MagicalThinking · 06/09/2020 13:16
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