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“No vaccine forecast for at least 15 months”

(40 Posts)
Molofololo Sun 23-Aug-20 18:59:32

They just said this on channel 4 news. I thought we were optimistic it would be beginning next year? 😕 They said it very matter of fact like it was a pretty certain forecast.

OP’s posts: |
PicsInRed Sun 23-Aug-20 19:14:49

They were keeping spirits up. Nothing more.

Their given, "optimistic", timelines were never realistic.

AKissAndASmile Sun 23-Aug-20 19:17:47

It's so weird that Russia has announced a vaccine and that was the end of the discussion 😂

Sunshinegirl82 Sun 23-Aug-20 19:22:42

I think it depends on what they mean by forecast. Do they mean everyone in the country vaccinated? Or something that is through testing and possibly has been licensed for emergency use and/or is being given to HCP's etc?

I'd be pretty hopeful of the latter by the end of this year/early next. Particularly if the Oxford vaccine is successful. I suspect countrywide vaccination is likely to take longer.

I assume this is based on Chris Whitty's comments today? If so that isn't exactly what he said.

Molofololo Sun 23-Aug-20 19:27:13

It was in a segment where they were discussing the likelihood of the Paralympics going ahead next year.

OP’s posts: |
GoldenOmber Sun 23-Aug-20 19:35:00

There isn’t a vaccine that’s passed testing and been licensed yet so I suppose there’s no way to forecast one.

But of the vaccines currently in Phase 3 trials it would be fairly surprising if they all failed to come up with any good results in 15 months. Three of them at least are aiming for enough data to send off to regulators before the end of the year. Of course there’s a chance they could all fail, or they could all take much much longer than expected to get evidence, but that doesn’t seem like the most likely outcome at this point.

IcedPurple Sun 23-Aug-20 19:43:39

Molofololo

They just said this on channel 4 news. I thought we were optimistic it would be beginning next year? 😕 They said it very matter of fact like it was a pretty certain forecast.

Who's 'they'?

minnieok Sun 23-Aug-20 19:51:23

Friend working on the Oxford trial expects prelim results in October, healthcare workers vaccinated first pre Christmas is still the hope. Rolling out to 65+ million yes next autumn.

feelingverylazytoday Sun 23-Aug-20 19:58:33

I've heard rumours that the US is hoping to start vaccinating in December as well.

MiniMaxi Sun 23-Aug-20 20:00:20

Yeah I think they have misunderstood Whitty’s comments. He said no vaccine available to the masses this winter but likely next winter. I assume he’s talking about winters because they are the riskiest times.

GoldenOmber Sun 23-Aug-20 20:00:43

There is no chance that any government is going to see a vaccine for this get licensed, have many millions of doses already bought and made and ready to go, and not vaccinate as many people as fast as they practically and safely can.

Molofololo Sun 23-Aug-20 20:02:39

Ah yes sounds like they misinterpreted Whitty. Thanks Minnie that’s interesting and reassuring.

OP’s posts: |
AKissAndASmile Sun 23-Aug-20 20:24:41

BUT WHAT ABOUT THE RUSSIAN VACCINE?grin

igot20joe Sun 23-Aug-20 20:31:39

@minnieok That’s encouraging. Would it be NHS staff before the extremely vulnerable does your friend know?

Sunshinegirl82 Sun 23-Aug-20 20:33:20

Russia's vaccine has only concluded its stage 1 trials as far as I know? The Russian government have just approved it at an earlier stage. They plan to now carry out further trials.

The Russian vaccine is behind the Oxford vaccine. We could be vaccinating more widely if they had started to do so after the phase 1 trials.

Eccle80 Sun 23-Aug-20 20:39:15

igot20joe

*@minnieok* That’s encouraging. Would it be NHS staff before the extremely vulnerable does your friend know?

This was published a while back on priorities, health and social care workers first
www.gov.uk/government/publications/priority-groups-for-coronavirus-covid-19-vaccination-advice-from-the-jcvi/interim-advice-on-priority-groups-for-covid-19-vaccination

annabel85 Sun 23-Aug-20 20:47:35

I believe we'll have some form of vaccine/antidote next year but I think it's important that it's earlier in the year. Writing another summer off (i.e. having to adhere to current restrictions) would be a disaster for the economy and would kill off the hospitality/events industry and the airlines etc.

tootyfruitypickle Sun 23-Aug-20 20:51:57

Do you reckon they’ll do over 50s, then gradually add in an extra decade at a time, eg add in over 40s, then over 30s? Or even start with over 70s and work down like this ?

tootyfruitypickle Sun 23-Aug-20 20:52:34

Once you’ve got the 40plus vaccinated I imagine life is pretty much as normal?

onedayinthefuture Sun 23-Aug-20 20:56:13

Maybe the urgency for a vaccine has calmed down because there is perhaps some evidence the virus is weakening? We won't know of course until this winter is underway but is a possibility....

annabel85 Sun 23-Aug-20 21:01:29

onedayinthefuture

Maybe the urgency for a vaccine has calmed down because there is perhaps some evidence the virus is weakening? We won't know of course until this winter is underway but is a possibility....

It's weakening in Europe (at least the first wave is, they keep talking about a second wave due).

However, around 1000 people are dying every day in USA, Brazil and India with no signs of things easing up there and Mexico/parts of South America still really struggling.

Purpledaisychain Sun 23-Aug-20 21:13:29

There are dozens of news channels and so far none of them have said the same thing about the timeline for a vaccine. We'll have a vaccine when we have a vaccine. Not before and not after.

Noextremes2017 Sun 23-Aug-20 21:18:46

Whitt’s should zip his mouth up.
50% of what he says is bullshit and now it seems the other 50% is liable to mis-interpretation.

Ponoka7 Sun 23-Aug-20 21:26:04

"Once you’ve got the 40plus vaccinated I imagine life is pretty much as normal?"

Except the vaccine isn't as effective in the over 65's. It's a, sliding scale, percentage wise from 60 and it has been said that we don't know if it will be effective in the over 70's. They will have to rely on herd immunity. That's the case with the flu vaccination.

The vaccine isn't mandatory, yet, my DD's SC firm has said it won't be and lots of care workers don't want it. So it's all speculation when we will get effective coverage from being vaccinated.

tootyfruitypickle Sun 23-Aug-20 21:42:13

But it might help reduce severity? I have this argument every year with my DF who won’t have the flu jab ‘as it doesn’t work’. It might work and it might reduce the severity? Is that not the same thing that might happen here? Eg , I had flu vaccine when it bad swine flu vac as part of it, I caught what I think was swine flu, I was pretty ill but not bedbound, rest of my household were wiped out and in bed for over a week and dd was a baby at the time and ended up in hospital. So a vaccine that reduces severity would be a game changer as well.

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