Some positive news....

[weepingwillow22]

With all the talk about r over 1 and cases rising in the UK it is easy to feel depressed. However looking at the zoe app data shows some reasons to be positive. This shows that at the UK level new daily cases are continuing to fall:

covid.joinzoe.com/post/incidence-update-21-aug
'The numbers have fallen to the low levels that were reported back in early July, suggesting that the recent situation has improved but that there is a persistent level of COVID within the population that is hard to eradicate'.

The trends are flat which is reassuring despite the multiple small outbreaks we have been seeing across the UK in places like Manchester. Our survey data is consistent with the ONS household survey, which estimates slightly higher numbers due to the inclusion of asymptomatic cases.

[icecreamvan]

Another magical thinking thread

[Ellsbells12]

@icecreamvan

Another magical thinking thread

Let's just stick to the doom and gloom shall we

[BadAbbot]

Encouraging but it is confusing that the Zoe figures have moved in the opposite way to Actual cases. Do they release a figure of how many are reporting each day. I’d be intrigued to see it.

[NothingIsWrong]

How are they moving in the opposite direction? The 7 day rolling average of new cases has fallen every day for the last 6 days.

[ballsdeep]

@icecreamvan

Another magical thinking thread

Or maybe just a poster whonis actually trying to catch onto a glimmer of hope instead of the bloody doomsday posters on here

[Jrobhatch29]

@icecreamvan

Another magical thinking thread

You sound fun

[weepingwillow22]

@BadAbbot

Encouraging but it is confusing that the Zoe figures have moved in the opposite way to Actual cases. Do they release a figure of how many are reporting each day. I’d be intrigued to see it.

Yes the chart I linked to shows the daily cases which have been falling. The main difference between the zoe data and ons data is that the zoe data does not include asymptomatic cases. I wondering if the proportion of these has been increasing over time with more younger people getting infected. It might also explain why hospital admissions and death rates remain relatively low despite the ons data on rising cases.

[weepingwillow22]

Here is the data on daily new cases. Currently 1265 per million people
covid.joinzoe.com/data

In early july there was 1492 daily new cases per million
covid.joinzoe.com/post/covid-incidence-uk

[NothingIsWrong]

Down again as of yesterday. It was 19,600 a couple of days ago.

Cautious, but definitely good news and following the dropping cases.

[LynetteScavo]

The Zoe app can only work with the information provided (by the public) so if you don't think it's accurate sign in and contribute daily.

Overall it does seem positive. If we have a warm Autumn and people are able to be outside as much as possible we could go through Winter without the country having a full on lockdown again.

[Orchidsindoors]

How are you saying it's going down when it's clearly going up if you look at it every day over say the last 5 weeks we are in another week of it beingcm 1000 plus daily, when about 3 weeks ago it steadily rose from 800 to 1000. 700/800 to 1000 odd is clearly a rise.

[cathyandclare]

The ONS surveillance survey also shows a drop over the last two weeks ( following a slight uptick in late July). They test community cases, which including asymptomatic people. There is a fall of around a third. (There are low numbers testing positive now so large confidence intervals)

[Layladylay234]

Nice post OP. But unfortunately a lot of people on here will argue with you. Come and join us on the good news thread. I'll post your link up there so it's at the top of the forum. X

[feelingverylazytoday]

@icecreamvan

Another magical thinking thread

I didn't know analysing data was 'magical thinking' now.

[NothingIsWrong]

@Orchidsindoors

How are you saying it's going down when it's clearly going up if you look at it every day over say the last 5 weeks we are in another week of it beingcm 1000 plus daily, when about 3 weeks ago it steadily rose from 800 to 1000. 700/800 to 1000 odd is clearly a rise.

We are testing more people so finding more cases. Methods that work on mass surveillance such as the Zoe app and the ONS are all falling - we are just detecting more of them. This is a good thing, as they can then isolate and break the chain.

[Redolent]

A bunch of middle class women tapping away on their phones, bears no resemblance to the populations actually getting infected in recent weeks.

[Redolent]

As with many other days, it's currently reporting there are zero active cases in Blackburn or Pendle, when those two authorities are in the Top 4 for cases/million in the last week.

[scaevola]

Cases have risen since the start of July - there have been a couple of lower days recently, but then up again yesterday. So I think it is premature to say the increase has been halted.

www.statista.com/statistics/1101947/coronavirus-cases-development-uk/

[JimMaxwellantheshippingforcast]

The number of cases which are found are increasing each day.
It doesn't necessarily mean the total number of cases are increasing.

[weepingwillow22]

@Redolent

As with many other days, it's currently reporting there are zero active cases in Blackburn or Pendle, when those two authorities are in the Top 4 for cases/million in the last week.

I think they must take into account underreporting in these areas in their model. If you look at the table here Blackburn is on their watchlist with 0.19% of the population estimated to have symptomatic covid
covid.joinzoe.com/post/incidence-update-13-aug