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What is the strategy?

(22 Posts)
Fandajji Tue 04-Aug-20 14:30:13

I assumed that the national sombrero flattening was to stop the NHS being overwhelmed, which happened and the government claimed a win (access to all other services however..). I also assumed that the sombrero was related to deaths and capalibty

Anyway, people are now out and cases are inevitably rising, am I wrong to think that as long as local hospitals aren't overstretched then local lock downs aren't necessary according to the government's initial aim of protecting the NHS?

When schools, hospitals and over services welcome people back and testing becomes widely promoted then cases will most probably shoot up, but if hospitals remain capable then, from the governments perspective, that's fine. But hospital admissions in Greater Manchester are remaining low and stable, yet they are being restiected again. So what exactly is the government's strategy now?

Have we swapped to the aim of elimination?

Whilst I'm rambling, LBC were discussing immunity passports. If that becomes a thing then good luck flattening anyone's sombrero, the young and healthy will be having corona parties!

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Flaxmeadow Tue 04-Aug-20 14:41:57

Anyway, people are now out and cases are inevitably rising, am I wrong to think that as long as local hospitals aren't overstretched then local lock downs aren't necessary according to the government's initial aim of protecting the NHS

I think the main problem has always been that the increase in infection can spike extremely quickly. The rise is very steep. Look back at the numbers/graphs in March.

There might be a few hundred in a northern restricted city, Bradford for example, one day but within days this could become thousands, potentially I suppose tens of thousands. The slope down out of infections is slow, but uncontrolled the rise up happens quickly and steeply

Blueberryham Tue 04-Aug-20 14:47:13

This is why I think eliminationstrategy would be preferred. Cos we are perpetually in this tug of war now with case numbers. Lockdown was lifted too quickly. We needed to drive down cases to zero. Then persist with elimation strategy and then we really could have normality back. It is frustrating that England don’t seem to be communicating what the strategy is. In Scotland it is clear they have a strategy of perusing elimation. People say we missed the boat and elimation is no longer possible but Scotland managed after once being one of the worst death rates in the world.

Redolent Tue 04-Aug-20 14:48:18

This from the government’s Joint Biosesecurity Centre - seems to suggest that the ‘acceptable’ level of positive covid swabs is 1000/day.

It was 938 yesterday.

GoingtotheWinchester Tue 04-Aug-20 14:50:51

I’m loving that you assume there is a strategy grin

Cupcakegirl13 Tue 04-Aug-20 14:53:35

I think whilst ever hosp admission rates remain low and death rates remain low or even better fall then things will continue as they are.
The massive increase in tier two testing over the last couple of weeks means it will look like we have more cases but in reality it’s an increase in testing.

MulierLite Tue 04-Aug-20 14:55:55

At one point the govt at least pretended to have a strategy - remember the 5 level/Nandos green to red chart? However, they soon abandoned that and proceeded to lift lockdown too soon and without any adequate track and trace in place. God only knows what they are playing at. Scotland, by contrast, seem to be doing pretty well.

Isotope456 Tue 04-Aug-20 14:58:30

Let's be honest, there is no strategy. They're busking it. Reacting to stuff as it happens.

Fandajji Tue 04-Aug-20 15:05:04

going I'm a hopeless optimist.

I assumed the strategy was monitor hospital capacity and deaths from covid. If hospitals reached 50% then act or something like that. But increasing testing whilst using that as the tool for lockdown decisions seems odd and will eventually put people off of getting tests. Maybe introduce shielding in areas of high cases but otherwise let it spread. That also sounds like a crap plan! But locking down when hospitals are coping will really start to tip the balance to covid interventions killing more people, if it hasn't already tipped that is.

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Flaxmeadow Tue 04-Aug-20 15:09:36

Scotland has also made mistakes, but haven't all countries? Per capita care home deaths in Scotland are way above many other countries, including England. It would also be easy to point out past mistakes made by Spain, Italy, France, Sweden etc but what would be the point in me hounding Scotland about now. Scotland, like other countries, yes even Englnad, have also done other things right.

This pitting countries against each other and political point scoring is getting tiresome. All countries have more or less followed the same procedures/lockdowns and all have adjusted strategy as new data and understanding of how the virus spreads became available. It's a learning curve for everyone

It wasn't that long ago that any discussion on here of the virus being airborne was banned. Nothing is perfect and 'hindsight is a wonderful thing'

Fandajji Tue 04-Aug-20 15:10:10

mulier didn't Scotland have the 3rd worst death rate in the world? Sturgeon also said she wanted to cry as a result of people in Scotland being silly once allowed back out.

They have done well to keep cases low I believe, but I'm not sure how long any country will be successful in this without closing borders and having constant lockdowns.

Any further vaccine news? I think that's the real strategy - do and say things that make it look like you're doing and saying the right things but hope and pray for a vaccine before the country revolts.

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JunkDNA Tue 04-Aug-20 15:12:06

I think the strategy is herd immunity. It always has been. Everything else is just pandering to the public's sensibilities. hmm

Blueberryham Tue 04-Aug-20 15:12:47

Oh, I think I read 3rd worst death rate a while ago. Maybe it has changed now. Whatever it was it was pretty bad at one point and they have done well to drive rates down. Unfortunately they can’t close borders with England or at least not easily so it is difficult to maintain.

Blueberryham Tue 04-Aug-20 15:13:56

I don’t think the strategy is herd immunity any more. That method is pretty well frowned upon and not expected to work.

Blueberryham Tue 04-Aug-20 15:14:20

Strategy is maybe cross fingers for vaccine soon?

Fandajji Tue 04-Aug-20 15:15:52

Toying with the idea of immunity passports could easily result in the public actively choosing herd immunity and the government being able to wash their hands of the consequences. It will be interesting to look back on all of this when it's over.

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Flaxmeadow Tue 04-Aug-20 15:27:18

Herd immunity was, and still is, the goal of every single country on earth. Herd Immunity means enough people are immune, either by naturally producing antibodies or vaccination, to stop the spread

The problem, as we know now, is that there is no guarantee of either a natural lasting immunity or an effective vaccine.

Redolent Tue 04-Aug-20 15:36:02

It’s not just the number of tests that is important, but the test % percentage rate.

Nobodyputsdaisyinthecorner Tue 04-Aug-20 15:39:32

The strategy is there is no strategy.

Just flip flopping from over-optimism to panic and back again.

secretllama Tue 04-Aug-20 16:09:59

There is none it seems. I'm in Scotland, and our numbers are pretty low. I thought the whole point was get the numbers low enough so that we can live normally and track/isolate any outbreaks using track and trace. But track and trace is now being used in a cluster of cases in Aberdeen, and its almost as if now the cluster is being used to show how we can't go back to normal as all these cases have come from one pub.

labyrinthloafer Tue 04-Aug-20 16:40:06

Hahaha strategy! Don't be silly.

Go to work, don't go to work
Eat out, lose weight
Over by Christmas, risk of second wave
Bustle about, take care
Shake hands with everyone

I want zero covid to be the strategy. Johnson presumably can't be bothered to read what it would entail

Fandajji Tue 04-Aug-20 16:44:10

secret I do think that testing is moving more towards feeling like you'll be punished if positive. Probably an irrational feeling but that's how the message is coming across to me!

Live life as normal! Oh you went to nandos and someone was positive and was also living their life normally. Now you all have to isolate and lose your income for a while! Negative test? Oh, well continue isolate. Isolation over? Great! Go to work, go back to nandos, back to the gym, back to school, live life as normal, you're free!

3 weeks later..

Hey, track and trace here again..

As infinitum.

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