A professor claims that UK on course for further 30,000 deaths unless Boris Johnson changes approach

[Guylan]

UK on course for further 30,000 deaths unless Boris Johnson changes approach according to a member of the non government Independent Sage Group.

Also from article:

“The UK is emerging from “our long national hibernation”, as Mr Johnson put it, with infections at a much higher level than other EU countries which are unlocking.

Independent Sage warned that:

• A “steady decline in new cases since April has stopped” – with 2,000-4,000 new infections each day.
  
  
• The test-and trace system was only catching and obtaining contacts from about one-third of people with symptoms.
  
  
• It was also failing to provide any data on how many people contacted are isolating – or how many go on to develop symptoms and get tested.”
  
  www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/uk-coronavirus-deaths-change-course-lockdown-plan-sage-a9587541.html

[Guylan]

Further to comment above, many public experts say these figures dont have to be inevitable. Proper local case finding, testing, tracing, isolation and support needs to be in place.

[Guylan]

And those predicted 30,000 deaths from now until March are before lifting of lockdown measures are in place.

[LarryTheLurker]

So-called 'Independent SAGE' is a left wing anti-government group with zero official standing. It exists solely to stir up trouble. As it is trying to do here.

The epidemic is past its peak and there will be no second wave.
Actual number of new infections yesterday? 1,006

[amicissimma]

Well expert A says this, expert B says the other, expert C says something else, expert D says they're all wrong.

There's no agreement between SAGE experts, nor among Independent SAGE experts. This model says x, that model says y.

No one knows. Will Covid-19 just fizzle out in the general population or will it be like the Spanish Flu or Hong Kong Flu and emerge again when we all huddle together indoors?

We can be reasonably sure that shutting down the economy for several months is a Really Bad Idea. If we're going to have another wave of Covid, or indeed any other illness, it's better if the government has plenty of money available to pay for what the citizens need.

[SmileEachDay]

Larry

Guido Fawkes is hardly a balanced news source given the right wing stance of Paul Staines.....

[PatriciaHolm]

But their maths doesn't make any sense.

On Infections of, say, 4000 a day - the top of their range, and above what both the ONS and the Covid Zoe app says - at IFR (infection fatality rate) of 0.5%, that's 20 deaths a day, not 100-150.

To continue with deaths at that rate, infections would have to continue at the rate of a month or more ago (and stats suggest this is untrue as hospital admissions are down considerably since then, as well as all other infection stats suggesting a drop since then), and the same % of those who get ill would need to be dying (which doesn't seem to be the case, as a piece in the press the other day said - fewer of those admitted to hospital are dying).

It sounds unlikely.

[Howaboutanewname]

The epidemic is past its peak and there will be no second wave

Do you have a functioning crystal ball? Whilst I agree we are past a peak, it doesn’t take much scientific knowledge to recognise that if around 5% of us have antibodies, anything is possible over the coming months.

[Guylan]

@amicissimma

Well expert A says this, expert B says the other, expert C says something else, expert D says they're all wrong.

There's no agreement between SAGE experts, nor among Independent SAGE experts. This model says x, that model says y.

No one knows. Will Covid-19 just fizzle out in the general population or will it be like the Spanish Flu or Hong Kong Flu and emerge again when we all huddle together indoors?

We can be reasonably sure that shutting down the economy for several months is a Really Bad Idea. If we're going to have another wave of Covid, or indeed any other illness, it's better if the government has plenty of money available to pay for what the citizens need.

There are many voices saying the alternative to current approach is not lockdown for months, but to put all focus on setting up a well run test, trace, and system which we still do not have . Furthermore for it to be the most affective it can be the numbers need to come down a bit further than currently.

[Guylan]

*typo - effective

[Baaaahhhhh]

Change approach how though? Every other country in the EU is following the same approach......

[Bol87]

Well, he’s incorrect straight away. Infections have been hovering at 670-1500 for a couple weeks now. Usually around 1,200. Where is he getting his 2000-4000 figure from?!

[Guylan]

@Bol87

Well, he’s incorrect straight away. Infections have been hovering at 670-1500 for a couple weeks now. Usually around 1,200. Where is he getting his 2000-4000 figure from?!

I believe there is an estimated case figure and positive case number figure. Presume he is using estimate figure.

I am unable to comment further today, but would like to tmrw or as soon as able.

[PatriciaHolm]

@Bol87 that's just the cases actually identified through testing. Actual infections will higher than that as many people won't get tested as they won't have symptoms.

ONS and Covid Zoe would suggest maybe 3-4K actual infections a day at the moment isn't unreasonable.

[Guylan]

@Baaaahhhhh

Change approach how though? Every other country in the EU is following the same approach......

Believe UK will be lifting some lockdown measures at a higher number of cases than when some other European countries lifted theirs. Know not until July 4 th officially but more and more of general public ignoring measures due to govt’s weak messaging already. Other European countries test, trace and isolate apps though far from working at full capacity are catching more than England.

[Bluntness100]

Sure. There is also professors saying it will die out and no second wave.

Pick your poison op

[InOutofmymind]

Would be wise to at least listen to the independent SAGE group and others in the official SAGE who are urging caution and to get Track and Trace working properly, with an app ASAP.

But i think we won't.

[lljkk]

I'm uncomfortable with Independent SAGE.
Yes they are more knowledgeable than me.
They are also self-appointed busybodies.
You only believe Indie-SAGE instead of SAGE if either A) you prefer what Ind-SAGE are saying B) you think that the actual SAGE are compromised or incompetent.
So recipe for confirmation bias.

Who is to say the Indie-SAGE aren't just as politically compromised or incompetent or zealously agenda driven as genuine SAGE are accused of? How would I know? Seems like Ind-SAGE are just there to promote themselves even if they undermine all trust in science otherwise.

Bad taste in the mouth.

[sashagabadon]

[quote Guylan]UK on course for further 30,000 deaths unless Boris Johnson changes approach according to a member of the non government Independent Sage Group.

Also from article:

“The UK is emerging from “our long national hibernation”, as Mr Johnson put it, with infections at a much higher level than other EU countries which are unlocking.

Independent Sage warned that:

• A “steady decline in new cases since April has stopped” – with 2,000-4,000 new infections each day.
  
  
• The test-and trace system was only catching and obtaining contacts from about one-third of people with symptoms.
  
  
• It was also failing to provide any data on how many people contacted are isolating – or how many go on to develop symptoms and get tested.”
  
  www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/uk-coronavirus-deaths-change-course-lockdown-plan-sage-a9587541.html[/quote]
  Co incidentally was reading an article in the times magazine today about sir david king. He set up the independent sage. He was the equivalent of patrick vallance in 2006.
  He wrote a paper in 2006 about pandemic response where his advice then was for people who were well to carry on with normal essential activities as far as possible while taking measures for self protection. So exactly what the Gov has done here too or tried to go until the imperial forecast that scared the Gov into our lockdown.
  So presumably he would have advised this course of action this time too
  He stirring trouble.

[sashagabadon]

Have a read if any of you get the times. Interview is by tom whipple. It was v interesting i thought

[sashagabadon]

@InOutofmymind

Would be wise to at least listen to the independent SAGE group and others in the official SAGE who are urging caution and to get Track and Trace working properly, with an app ASAP.

But i think we won't.

But they are trying yo do exactly that?!

[sashagabadon]

@Bluntness100

Sure. There is also professors saying it will die out and no second wave.

Pick your poison op

That's very true. There is a female oxford professor who is saying this.
No wonder it is hard for politicians who are not scientists to make decisions.
Which scientist do you believe. It's very difficult.

[SmileEachDay]

No wonder it is hard for politicians who are not scientists to make decisions.
Which scientist do you believe. It's very difficult

I think they believe which ever scientists say the thing that suits their political purpose- or at least they cherry pick the bits that suit.

[sashagabadon]

@SmileEachDay

*No wonder it is hard for politicians who are not scientists to make decisions.
Which scientist do you believe. It's very difficult*

I think they believe which ever scientists say the thing that suits their political purpose- or at least they cherry pick the bits that suit.

But thats not true as they have patrick vallance and chris whitty and sage. So they are taking their advice.
Not just random scientists they prefer.
Whoever was in power would be taking the exact same advice from the exact same scientists.

[SunbathingDragon]

@LarryTheLurker

So-called 'Independent SAGE' is a left wing anti-government group with zero official standing. It exists solely to stir up trouble. As it is trying to do here.

The epidemic is past its peak and there will be no second wave.
Actual number of new infections yesterday? 1,006

Totally agree with the first paragraph and completely disagree with the second. It’s how big the second wave will be that is the concern because it doesn’t need to be as significant as the first one.

[SmileEachDay]

But thats not true as they have patrick vallance and chris whitty and sage. So they are taking their advice
Not just random scientists they prefer

They absolutely are cherry picking the bits of SAGE advice they want. The schools modelling was an example of this.