More fearful of recession than Covid

[31133004Taff]

If this is already covered, please share the link. I’m having a major wobble. My first since we went into lockdown so I was doing well, until now.

My income stopped in March and I’m 57. Now looking at two awful outcomes. Out of lockdown and virus goes viral again, as we’re seeing in the States. Stay in lockdown and companies going under, as is Swissport.

What is the third way until a vaccine is available I can’t see? What’s the optimistic balance between the economy opening up and Covid still being highly contagious in the long term.

Thanks all

[RapidRainbow]

I personally feel that we're in a much better position now than we were in the few weeks before lockdown. If you recall, they would only test people if they had been abroad, yet we now have been told that Covid19 came to the UK on 1300 different occasions, from Europe, so as many suspected, the actual cases were much higher at this point, we just didn't know! Someone on MN said before lockdown there has been estimated as 100,000 daily cases, though in unsure if that's true and if that's UK or Worldwide.

This time, anyone can get tested, so we can keep a much clearer picture on local figures and act quickly now the testing systems are in place.

Add into this the vaccine developments and the newly discovered treatment for worse cases, we're in a position we had hoped for coming out of lockdown.

I think that many people like myself and many of you will be cautious, we won't head straight into packed pubs or mix closely and so the government and their scientists have probably used data from pubs to work out how much % of people will do this and how many % of these people may have Covid when they do and they will consider if those numbers are manageable. Its not great because we wnat numbers DOWN but at this point, new cases may be offset by an even lower community transmission and care homes more under control too. I hope!

Summer will help keep cases low, we can have friends for Bbqs and meet outside which is what most people do in the summer. By September when the kids are due to return, the cases should hopefully be low enough to really stamp it out, possibly died out before then.

With the continued restrictions on holidays and travel, whilst the UK hospitality industry will lose out, a lot of other businesses and local economies will thrive as people stick to UK day trips and holidays.

Disclaimer: Not a scientist, just applying my own logic.

[B9008]

The economy will be hit very hard as it relies on confidence and even if only 20% of consumers have lost confidence and stop spending then it has a huge knock on effect. I see Dart Group announced today that they are making over 100 pilots redundant (Jet2). This sort of news is just going to continue for the foreseeable future.

My advice would be keep outgoings to the minimum and save while you can afford to do so. If over 55 you can access pensions too which may help if the shit really hits the fan.

[Derbygerbil]

Someone on MN said before lockdown there has been estimated as 100,000 daily cases, though in unsure if that's true and if that's UK or Worldwide.

That was U.K... it was out of control, hence the 40-50,000 deaths.

[Newjez]

I really don't think you can separate covid from the recession. They are both deeply entwined.

The depts of the recession will be directly related to the government's reaction to covid.

Many seem to assume that a lighter reaction to covid will give us a lighter recession. That isn't necessarily true. As you can see from Brazil and India and the USA, failure to deal with the situation can and will lead to longer term effects that makes the recession worse.

We can only hope our government gets the balance right. So far, they could have done better.

[Frouby]

I listened to something on BBC news last week OP that made me feel better about the recession. Dh is a builder so a recession always hits us hard.

I think it was an economist being interviewed on the 9 til 10 bbcs news programme. He said that not since 19something, post ww2 had the Bank of England/Government borrowed so much money or been as in deficit. However the government didn't do austerity it invested and borrowed more, founded the NHS and made massive changes to the social systems to stimulate the economy. And the economists are apparently already working towards investing in the UK. There was another question at the daily briefing where Matt H was asked about what massive infrastructure projects would be shelved or delayed (presumably HS2) and the answer was non will be shelved and we intend to accelerate them to stimulate the economy.

It does give me some hope. I think things will change obviously but CV, combined with brexit will be an opportunity for the UK to be more self sufficient, to rely on the UK for food and resources (PPE anyone?) and to change things fundamentally with funding for schools and the NHS and care.

[frozendaisy]

Yes there is going to be a recession, can't see how there won't be. Consumer confidence, including the confidence to borrow for big ticket items, is just not there at the moment, how can it be. I don't think I have known so many different trades concerned about their job security at the same time.

[Newjez]

@Frouby

I listened to something on BBC news last week OP that made me feel better about the recession. Dh is a builder so a recession always hits us hard.

I think it was an economist being interviewed on the 9 til 10 bbcs news programme. He said that not since 19something, post ww2 had the Bank of England/Government borrowed so much money or been as in deficit. However the government didn't do austerity it invested and borrowed more, founded the NHS and made massive changes to the social systems to stimulate the economy. And the economists are apparently already working towards investing in the UK. There was another question at the daily briefing where Matt H was asked about what massive infrastructure projects would be shelved or delayed (presumably HS2) and the answer was non will be shelved and we intend to accelerate them to stimulate the economy.

It does give me some hope. I think things will change obviously but CV, combined with brexit will be an opportunity for the UK to be more self sufficient, to rely on the UK for food and resources (PPE anyone?) and to change things fundamentally with funding for schools and the NHS and care.

With a Tory government?

Not taking sides politically, but Tory government don't tend to do this.

I've always thought you want a Tory in charge during boom times, and labour in charge during down turns.

[31133004Taff]

@Frouby - an economist interviewed in last week’s Observer is promoting that approach.

[Frouby]

@Newjez I would normally agree with you but these are unprecedented times and we have the recent austerity project which has been counterproductive. Plus Bojo wants to be the hero.

Our children will be paying for this no doubt. And it will definitely be an excuse to raise taxes but hopefully we won't be in another 2008.

[TabbyMumz]

Weve had recession before, and we came through it, I'm sure we can do it again.