Daily numbers, graphs, analysis thread 11

[BigChocFrenzy]

Welcome to thread 11 of the daily updates

Resource links:

Slides & data UK govt pressers
NHS England stats including breakdown by Hospital Trust
ONS UK statistics for CV related deaths outside hospitals, released weekly each Tuesday
Financial Times Daily updates and graphs
HSJ Coronavirus updates
Worldometer UK page
Covidly.com to filter graphs using selected data filters ONS statistics for CV related deaths outside hospitals, released weekly each Tuesday
Plot COVID Graphs Our World in Data

We welcome factual, data driven, and civil discussions from all contributors 💐

[derxa]

.

[AlecTrevelyan006]

Numbers of daily deaths and new infections continues to fall steadily

[AlecTrevelyan006]

154 deaths and just 653 new positive cases

[BBCONEANDTWO]

Thanks that is good news.

[Doordine]

That 653 figure is amazing - I was starting to wonder if it would ever get below 1000

[TeaInTheGarden]

Huge drop in positive cases...!
I too was thinking it was platauing at 1000.

[MarcelineMissouri]

🤞🏻 It carries on!

[Qasd]

Is the drop in positive tests being reflected in other numbers that estimate prevalence- particularly wondering about the ons figure which I have not seen updated for a while?

[Nihiloxica]

@AlecTrevelyan006

154 deaths and just 653 new positive cases

Wow, that's heading in the right direction.

[Baaaahhhhh]

.

[clarexbp]

Qasd, I think the ONS updates every Thursday, so should get another one tomorrow.

[Derbygerbil]

Good news about reductions in cases... We’re approaching levels in mainland Europe.

Fingers crossed that the country doesn’t all go mad from 4th July and we repeat Arizona’s experience!

[oldbagface]

Thank you for these. Very helpful and help to rationalise

[oldbagface]

Not sure if this has been covered yet as I'm still on the last thread.

So Johnson said today in parliament that no other country has a working track and trace app.

Can we clarify this statement please.

Is he right?
Or is it the case that successful countries like Germany are relying more on shoe leather and pen and paper to track and he was being clever with his description?

It is reported that the UK is missing a third of cases through track and trace.

[ShootsFruitAndLeaves]

will add some more links as we've a new thread:

www.mrc-bsu.cam.ac.uk/now-casting/ -> daily infections and cumulative infections for England & regions. 4260 daily estimated (as of 19 June), daily infections falling by around 2.5%. updated infrequently I think? These are approximates for actual infections, not the much smaller number of lab tests, which can never be complete.

www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/bulletins/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveypilot/18june2020 - infection survey pilot, weekly - like the above shows continuous decline in covid-19

coronavirus.data.gov.uk/ - official lab tests by area

lginform.local.gov.uk/reports/view/lga-research/covid-19-case-tracker - same data from LGA at local level

www.nrscotland.gov.uk/covid19stats - weekly deaths in Scotland

www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/causesofdeath/datasets/deathregistrationsandoccurrencesbylocalauthorityandhealthboard - weekly deaths by date of occurrence or registration, by local authority and place of occurrence, in England & Wales. If calculating aggregate data first delete all the 'health board' entries, as they are duplicates for Welsh local authorities. Also note that the data structure is odd, 'covid-19' and 'all', not 'covid-19' and 'other than covid-19'

www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/birthsdeathsandmarriages/deaths/datasets/numberofdeathsincarehomesnotifiedtothecarequalitycommissionengland - weekly and daily deaths of care home residents. in table 4 breaks down deaths of care home residents in hospitals and other venues, as opposed to the other report, which only considers place of death, not place of residence.

Note that death statistics are largely now of retrospective interest as the daily infections are too low to cause much excess mortality - with 25,000 weekly infections, we expect around 200 extra deaths which is little more than noise at this point.

A second wave on the scale of the first is impossible insofar as infections have been continuously declining for many weeks and are now down by around 99% (not a typo) from the peak. We expect them to continue to fall, but if they don't that's not a problem in that current levels do not remotely begin to justify extra damage to the economy, but rather imply that we should further open it up (except that we just did that, so it's wait and see for a while).

However, it's to be assumed that if we went back to March madness then things would explode again - something that could happen in about 3 weeks flat with pre-covid behaviour.

So, not many extra covid deaths are likely. No sign of infection levels going up after weeks and weeks of continuous fall, but if they do increase it would be moderately, and we'd have to make adjustments.

[ShootsFruitAndLeaves]

daily infections are down 99%, that is.

so long as daily infections continue to decrease it's implied that covid-19 eventually dies out.

[Orangeblossom78]

Another BBC one here. I hope you don't mind if I ask your thoughts again

It seems more cases in UK but also more testing. I wondered about the impact of this; could it be we are picking up more cases due to more testing than the other European countries, perhaps

I read today there are 12 'active outbreaks' in Spain at present.

//www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-53157269

[Orangeblossom78]

I thought France or Germany has an app now?

[TheSunIsStillShining]

The effects of last months are showing. Now that in the past few weeks it feels like a fiesta and holiday for many these are bound to go up :(

[cathyandclare]

@Orangeblossom78
Interesting question, I was wondering this too- in fact, I started a thread asking about testing strategies in other countries but only got a reply about New Zealand. That was interesting, but they're so different from the UK's situation.

[Orangeblossom78]

We have family in the Netherlands and they still seem to just be testing more severe cases there as well

[cathyandclare]

The effects of last months are showing. Now that in the past few weeks it feels like a fiesta and holiday for many these are bound to go up sad

is that about Spain, here, or elsewhere TheSun ? I suppose there are bound to be clusters as things open up, the important thing is finding out about them, tracing contacts and isolating them.

[midgebabe]

Both Germany and France have an app, but usage is much higher in Germany ( bbc or guardinan today )

[Derbygerbil]

It seems more cases in UK but also more testing. I wondered about the impact of this; could it be we are picking up more cases due to more testing than the other European countries, perhaps

Yes, it would be really interesting to see testing levels are compare and contrast. For instance, it Spain’s testing is far lower and less available than U.K. testing, it’s infections don’t look so good. Besides, their data on deaths isn’t credible, so why should their infection numbers be.

[Orangeblossom78]

I have just read that Ireland have an app and using it next month