Possibly a stupid question re numbers of infected per ***

[Pinkshoe]

Do we know how many people are infected per 1000 or any other number?

I thought I’d read somewhere a little while ago that it was around 1 in 400 people infected which seemed very small and it helped me to put my risk of becoming infected into perspective.

Do we know this number?

[zippyswife]

A couple of weeks ago they said 1 in 1000 but I don’t have a link for that nor do I have the updated number. Sorry... that’s not much help is it?

[NeonK]

4447 cases per 1million population according to Worldometer

www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

[LizzieMacQueen]

1 in 1,700 I thought.

[zippyswife]

www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/bulletins/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveypilot/18june2020
1:1,700

[Pinkshoe]

Wow as high as that! So really it’s probably quite unlikely you’ll come into contact with someone with it.

[oxydrive73]

Boris said earlier 1 in 1760.

[SoloMummy]

So 4.5 people per 100 people.

[SoloMummy]

Based on worldometer

[PuzzledObserver]

So 4.5 people per 100 people.

No, 4.5 per 1,000

[NeonK]

4.5 per 1000 isn't it? Maths was never my strong point.

[ragged]

dunno about you lasses but I don't have contact with more than 5 unique people on an avg day. 4 of those are the same people every day, who live in my house. Gonna take a long time to encounter 1700, at one extra per day (is that... 4.5 yrs before I might meet someone with covid?)

[Artesia]

And the actual risk of encountering an infected person is even lower- of those infected, many are either self isolating, or in hospitals or care homes.

[PuzzledObserver]

Although, the worldometer figure is the total cases (everyone who has ever been officially diagnosed), not current cases. For an estimate of the latter, try the Zoe symptom tracker webpage. That gives you an estimate for the percentage of people currently showing symptoms, and you can drill down to very small areas.

For my area it currently says 0.3%, which is 3 per 1,000 or 1 in 333.

covid.joinzoe.com/data

[SoloMummy]

@ragged

dunno about you lasses but I don't have contact with more than 5 unique people on an avg day. 4 of those are the same people every day, who live in my house. Gonna take a long time to encounter 1700, at one extra per day (is that... 4.5 yrs before I might meet someone with covid?)

However, with the pace of the lockdown in England, the expectation everyone is to return to school and work, you'll be meeting someone far sooner. If the say shielding people can also carry on as normal it won't take long for us to be at 100000 dead!

[SoloMummy]

@Artesia

And the actual risk of encountering an infected person is even lower- of those infected, many are either self isolating, or in hospitals or care homes.

Have you seen the most recent multiple factory outbreaks leading to Closures?

[LivinLaVidaLoki]

@Artesia

And the actual risk of encountering an infected person is even lower- of those infected, many are either self isolating, or in hospitals or care homes.

Those are infections in the community, so excluding hospitals and care homes. Though I can imagine they will be self isolating.

[NaturalBornWoman]

Those are infections in the community, so excluding hospitals and care homes. Though I can imagine they will be self isolating

I’m less confident than you that many of them will be self isolating based on what I read on here.

[withgraceinmyheart]

Isn't is less than 1 in 1000? I think it's 0.6 in 1000.

[Cherryghost]

Please can someone work out the figures for my area.
My area is showing 1.2% it's high area for Covid , population 225,197
Can anyone help me work out the 1 in 1700 or equivalent please?

[Cherryghost]

This may sound stupid but if it's generally a 1 in 1700 chance of you meeting someone with the virus (which is reassuring) but that doesn't tell you the chances of you getting the virus by touching a contaminated surface which would be more than 1 in 1700 as people touch loads of things in a day.

[Thisdressneedspockets]

1 in 1700 or 0.06 percent around June 7th according to ons stats. That's circulating in the community and doesn't take into account care homes and hospitals

[Derbygerbil]

@NeonK

The figure you quoted was for confirmed cases since the start of the pandemic. It won’t bear any resemblance to the current number of people infected because:

a) most people who have had it have now either recovered or died
b) most cases aren’t tested for, even now, due to people either by asymptomatic, not bothering getting tested, or being tested too late (ie if you wait more than a few days after symptoms you may not be tested positive). Back in March and April, the vast majority of those who had it weren’t tested, only the very sickest.

[LilyPond2]

@Cherryghost I believe 1.2% would equate to 1 in 833, though I am not the best at maths, so perhaps someone more mathematically gifted could confirm?

[Derbygerbil]

1 in 1700 is low enough not to be worried on a personal level, but no so low that we can completely get back to normal... if we do that 1 in 1700 will rise steadily until its much larger.

[Derbygerbil]

@LilyPond2

1.2% is 1 in 83
0.12% is 1 in 833