Daily numbers, graphs, analysis thread 10

[BigChocFrenzy]

Welcome to thread 10 of the daily updates.

Resource links:

Worldometer UK page
Financial Times Daily updates and graphs
HSJ Coronavirus updates
Johns Hopkins Coronavirus Resource Centre
NHS England stats, including breakdown by Hospital Trust
Covidly.com to filter graphs using selected data filters
ONS statistics for CV related deaths outside hospitals, released weekly each Tuesday

We welcome factual, data driven, and civil discussions from all contributors 💐

[blodynmawr]

Thanks for the new thread bcf

[Mybrowneyedgal]

Long time lurker. Thank you to all the contributors on these threads for helping to keep me sane and grounded.

[FATEdestiny]

Checking in

[oldbagface]

Marking my place. Not finnished the last thread yet. Thank you for this and keeping me calm

[NeurotrashWarrior]

Checking in, thanks.

Just seen this:


www.axios.com/who-coronavirus-asymptomatic-patients-08d84e31-1846-44d8-8fe1-2343ff850764.html

[NeurotrashWarrior]

WHO: Data suggests it's "very rare" for coronavirus to spread through asymptomatics

[Prokupatuscrakedatus]

How do they know this?

[peridito]

Contact tracing

We have a number of reports from countries who are doing very detailed contact tracing. They’re following asymptomatic cases. They’re following contacts. And they’re not finding secondary transmission onward. It’s very rare.

[itsgettingweird]

Evening! Fell off last threads. Busy here with working more and more and mum in hospital. (Not Covid)

We are seeing more and more difference in weekend recording and weekday but I think cases are dropping still?

Slight rise in admissions last week I thought?

That's interesting re asymptomatic cases not transmitting.

[NeurotrashWarrior]

Although I thought the point about mask wearing was that it reduces presymptomatic spread?

[itsgettingweird]

Do asymptomatic people develop antibodies?
That's the real game changer. Because if they don't pass it but develop immunity surely it helps slow transmission?

[NeurotrashWarrior]

I'm not sure; I suppose they can? Or it's the T cells.

Vaccines stimulate the immune system but you may not get any symptoms.

[tootyfruitypickle]

Mask wearing helps if you’re pre symptomatic - might go on to have symptoms

[Hedgehog26]

Is there a difference between being a symptomatic and presymptomatic?

[OhTheRoses]

Marking place. Super thread series. Thank you.

[StrawberryJam200]

Yes l@Hedgehog26, pre = before you start to have symptoms, asymptomatic means you've got it and never have symptoms.

[ListeningQuietly]

Rather impressive assumptions in here
^www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-52968523^
or should I say scare mongering hysteria to justify their next grant round.

[PatriciaHolm]

@ListeningQuietly

Rather impressive assumptions in here
^www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-52968523^
or should I say scare mongering hysteria to justify their next grant round.

Indeed. Essentially it seems to say "we said 500,000 would die if we didn't lock down, they didn't, so we were right!"

[Quarantino]

pre = before you start to have symptoms, asymptomatic means you've got it and never have symptoms.

Yet you don't know which it is . You've either got it, not got it, or about to get it! Act accordingly!

[BigChocFrenzy]

"Is there a difference between being a symptomatic and presymptomatic?"

Yes, hedgehog "presymptomatic" will eventually have COVID symptoms and then be infectious.
They should have some degree of immunity afterwards

"asymptomatic" never will have symptoms and studies suggest they have only a low chance of being infectious.
They may or may not have immunity

[BigChocFrenzy]

The 500,000 was also Chris Whitty's "reasonable worst case", using 80% infection rate and up to 1% death rate

• no sophisticated modelling their, just his simple back of the envelope multiplication
  
  With a novel virus and carnage in N Italy, there was too little to go on and no responsible government could ignore such an estimation from their CMO
  
  In Germany, we had a "leaked" worst case estimate from the Ministry of Health of 1 million dead, but no official death estimate,
  just Merkel quoting the 70% infected that her virologists said was worst case
  
  Lockdown was a pause button to get enough of the missing information and to build up systems and the most effective measures to cope.
  
  Lockdown was a blunderbus, because scientists didn't know what would work.
  
  Now they do and measures are targeted
  Well, not yet in the UK, which is weeks behind and a dollar short ....

[Hedgehog26]

Sorry, I should of been clearer in my question. Is there a difference with regards to testing between the two? Would asymptomatic show up on a test but pre symptomatic wouldn’t? And both would show on an antibody test? Or is that something we just don’t know yet

[BigChocFrenzy]

Asymptomatic cases have been found in swab tests (positive, but never any symptoms later)

• although we don't know how many of those were false positives !
  
  We don't know whether they would produce antibodies - evidence suggests even mild cases may not produce enough
  However, they may fight off symptoms via T cells, which could be detected in a blood test.
  
  Pre-symptomatic might be positive in swab tests, but probably haven't produced any / significant amount of antibodies yet

[Chaotic45]

Wonderful threads thank you.

Surely now that we have huge numbers of people being tested for covid and a reliable antibody test (and therefore a large bank of data), we will be able to build up a clear picture as to whether asymptomatic people develop antibodies?

[Keepdistance]

I think whether it will hit 500k in uk will depend on the t-cell and antibodies and how long immunity lasts etc.
We've got maybe 5.5% immunity for 40k dead. So maybe 55% for 400k dead. Although if most nursing homes havw now been hit?? and most over 70s stay in it could be lower in next waves.
Imo it seems likely there is some other immunity as it seems strange such low secondary attack rates. For something very contagious. Although 25/50% average but is it more either 100% or 0% averaged out? So some people just not spreaders?

The scout guy was said to be asymptomatic and did infect others but i think maybe got some later or maybe they just put him in hospital as infection control.
Considering how it spread through hospital via staff its probable that any early cases spread it in the hospitals.