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2nd Spike - any evidence?

(59 Posts)
SoberCurious Mon 08-Jun-20 09:24:12

Does anyone have any links to scientific arguments for there being a second peak soon please?

OP’s posts: |
Miljea Mon 08-Jun-20 10:10:19

Has anywhere actually had a second peak?.

LaceCurtains Mon 08-Jun-20 10:16:35

No and surely if it was going to happen as a result of all the "rule breaking" over the last two bank holidays, as people were so certain it would, we'd be seeing it by now.

Redolent Mon 08-Jun-20 10:17:35

I think the US has seen a spike in cases and hospitalisations for three days in a row now. Will post evidence (by CDC)

UnderTheBus Mon 08-Jun-20 11:25:21

I think Iran have some evidence of a second wave/spike/increase but the majority of countries have not.

SockYarn Mon 08-Jun-20 11:41:05

Since when have the doom and gloom merchants ever needed scientific evidence?

TheCountessofFitzdotterel Mon 08-Jun-20 11:43:15

Iran’s graph is very peculiar in other ways. Their case numbers after the first spike seem to have fallen very steeply, which is not what happened elsewhere and makes me pretty suspicious.

America is a very complicated picture because it’s a huge country and is really like a lot of different epidemics rather than one single one. I would be more interested in localised second waves in the US than what looks like an overall one.

I am not saying neither of these are real, but it’s more helpful to compare the countries whose epidemics have followed a more similar pattern to ours imo.

Waxonwaxoff0 Mon 08-Jun-20 11:51:05

Iran are saying theirs is down to increased testing.

With the USA, it's hard to say as all the states have different rules and population density - and they never really had a proper lockdown anyway.

LivinLaVidaLoki Mon 08-Jun-20 12:24:04

I think the general consensus now is that there will be more localised rises, rather than a second wave as such (they can then hopefully be managed).

mindutopia Mon 08-Jun-20 12:56:54

There is currently a second peak in Iran (google, you'll find information about it). I work in infectious diseases research, but not with COVID, and colleagues have been discussing early modelling data that seems to point to a second peak beginning in late June and July in the UK. I can't speak to any of that really though and nothing I can point you to. I'm not a modeller and I don't really understand how to interpret the data myself. I'm just repeating what has been discussed at our meetings in the past week or so. I don't know if this is localised or broader national data. It's hard to know what that will mean though as models are only as good as the data you put into them and I don't really know where they have come from.

nellodee Mon 08-Jun-20 13:16:47

It looks as though cases are rising again in Sweden, following a long plateau. Not sure as that counts as a second wave.

wanderings Mon 08-Jun-20 13:23:06

I suspect that this second spike will be as mythical as Bliar's weapons of mass destruction; it's being touted as a bogeyman to keep the plebs in their obedience school.

Indeed, if VE day meant infections would run wild, we would have seen the results by now. Ditto the protests - if there's no second spike in three weeks' time, then surely it's time to drop the highly damaging restrictions (lockdown and social distancing) which are crippling the country, and damaging everybody's physical and mental health? We can only hope. sad I expect the clowns will try to twist the figures to make it look as if the protests caused a second spike. Perhaps they'll publish a whole lot of test results at a strategic moment, to make it look as if there's a second spike.

We need to wake up from our lockdown torpor, get angry about the constant gaslighting, and the highly damaging cotton wool nanny state we're all willingly sleepwalking into!

Waxonwaxoff0 Mon 08-Jun-20 13:25:59

wanderings yep. No sign of a second spike from the "packed beaches" either.

daytripper28 Mon 08-Jun-20 13:31:00

@wanderings

Righty-ho.

Are you an epidemiologist or virologist? A scientist or doctor perhaps?

Just curious as you seem to know something that lots of experts don't know. And who exactly are the clowns?

TheCountessofFitzdotterel Mon 08-Jun-20 14:00:49

nellodee

It looks as though cases are rising again in Sweden, following a long plateau. Not sure as that counts as a second wave.

Are they testing the same numbers as before?

MRex Mon 08-Jun-20 14:17:10

Little outbreaks of a few thousand cases here or there aren't a second wave. A second wave could be caused by a lot of outbreaks at once getting out of control, but is usually when a virus mutates or when conditions suit it better, e.g. Autumn.

hatebeak Mon 08-Jun-20 15:49:56

Wow, it's like a particuarly depressing bingo card. "Doom and gloom merchants", "the plebs in their obedience school", "Bliar" (this is almost hilarious), "cotton-wool nanny state"....
More than 40000 people have died. This is not a fabrication. The reason more didn't die is because of lockdown. This government are truly awful and have mishandled everything grossly, but the idea that trying to stem a genuinely deadly and utterly unknown disease a big bad plan to hamper our human rights is laughable. If anything, you want the state to wrap people in cotton wool at a time when a deadly virus is ripping through the world. The lockdown also bought time, a chance to understand more what this virus actually was. And you know what's really hard to recover from? Being dead.
I am so sick of conspiracy theorists - it's a sure sign of not-terribly-bright people who are so terrified they are being talked down to or aren't smart enough to understand what's going on that they have to take a pointlessly belligerent, positively teenage position to make them feel as if they're special, society's seers here to speak their glorious truth to the "sleepwalking" masses. "Bliar". Seriously.

ballsdeep Mon 08-Jun-20 15:52:58

LaceCurtains

No and surely if it was going to happen as a result of all the "rule breaking" over the last two bank holidays, as people were so certain it would, we'd be seeing it by now.

If it doesn't happen after the huge protests this weekend it never will

MRex Mon 08-Jun-20 16:07:49

@ballsdeep - On what scientific basis? Oh right, because you say so. Have you tried reading research into viruses? It might help your understanding.

Sertchgi123 Mon 08-Jun-20 16:15:24

I've wondered about this. When the virus first arrived we initially didn't have any cases and then we did and it seemed to spread like wildfire.

It's already here now, we have new cases every day but it's not spreading. Okay some people are social distancing but many aren't. There are people back at work, there are schools back, people are flocking to do what they want to do in crowds and yet it doesn't seem to be spreading.

It leads me to wonder whether there's something else going on. For example, is the virus now less infectious

ballsdeep Mon 08-Jun-20 16:28:05

On the basis that scientists are saying that approx one in a thousand people have it. Surely if there are hundreds of thousands of people closely packed together it's giving the virus chance to spread.

LaceCurtains Mon 08-Jun-20 16:35:49

I don't think there are as many people "packed together" as some people would have you believe. Yes, the beaches were busy but still the vast majority of the population didn't go and those who did were outdoors and (probably) mostly maintained the 2m.

Same with the "street parties". People did make some effort to stay apart, even if they didn't maintain it, most were outdoors and not within 2m for long periods.

Even the protests, big numbers but tiny % of the population.

Newjez Mon 08-Jun-20 17:00:27

Up until now,. Lockdown and distancing have helped stop spreading the disease.

My immune system is compromised, and I always carry gel and try and take precautions to avoid any infection.

But you can't help but become complacent.

You see it happening now.

I doubt the protests will cause a second wave. It will take a few months for people to relax. If it's going to happen, it will happen in autumn.

Waxonwaxoff0 Mon 08-Jun-20 17:13:24

There has been an increase in public transport use as well for the past few weeks as people have started to go back to work. Still no spike.

Needsomegoodies Mon 08-Jun-20 17:41:33

A second wave is not an instant response to an event and even notable spikes will take weeks to show at the current infection level. You’re talking about a few transmissions that won’t be picked up for a couple of weeks and it’s the knock on from the next 2-3 transmissions (so 4-6 weeks later) you need to look out for, which will be dependent on how much those affected then transmit.

The outdoor gatherings will also likely have ‘relatively’ low transmission compared to if all in a contained building. Why do people assume an instaneous spike - it’s not as if people catch it and immediately pass it on to the next person.

Any second wave is far more likely to occur in the autumn - in most epidemic data there is a lull in cases before any further increase. Unless those who get infected now ignore all social distancing in which case it could happen sooner.

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