What are the chances of a second wave ?

[Ipadipod]

Just that really, people are talking about a second wave with lots now not adhering to social distancing, most people back at work from tomorrow etc.
What are the real chances of a surge in new cases and deaths ?

[Ilikewinter]

Well after seeing hundreds/thousands of people gathering at the protests going on today i would say theres a massive chance of a second spike. Every single one of them should be locked up together and if covid breaks out they receive no NHS help.

[yarncakes]

As soon as lockdown lifts. There's no doubt about it.

[PasserbyEffect]

It depends. If the current stats are to be trusted (1000s of daily new cases, 100s of daily deaths) and if the pictures of crowded beaches are a good indication of what "using good old British common sense" looks like, then it sounds pretty much guaranteed...

Except there's rumors that the virus is somehow "self-limiting"/loses its potency over time. If that's true, then we might just about be OK (due to sheer luck, although am sure the authorities would claim all the credit).

[LastTrainEast]

Viruses do tend to weaken and that is our best hope now. If it has weakened sufficiently then the mobs of people currently doing their best to spread it will be saying "see I told you there was nothing to worry about"

Maybe one day we'll develop a vaccine against stupidity. There's a pandemic of that.

[CountessFrog]

Yarn cakes, there is doubt about it.

We just don’t know. Some people doubt it, others are convinced.

Why are you so sure that there is no doubt surrounding it?

[Newjez]

When people say a virus will weaken, I believe they are talking about deadly viruses, with a high kill rate.
As the virus kills effectively, a lesser strain will be transmitted more easily and will become dominant.
Covid already transmits easily amongst 80% of the population, so there is no evolutionary advantage for a less potent strain to capitalise on.

[B1rdbra1n]

What sort of wave will it be🌊a tsunami or a ripple?

[Newjez]

Just been out for an hour's bike ride. Starting back slowly, as I'm highly vulnerable, and I've been locked in for the last three months. Jo wick's only goes so far.

I have to say that despite all the photos of packed beaches, the roads and villages looked pretty quiet. Bit of traffic but much much less than I would expect on a week day.

So I'm guessing we are still in some form of lockdown.

So I'm not thinking we will get a second wave in June.

When it does come, I think it will come more slowly than last time, as we are still taking precautions. I'm thinking we won't see any real increase until winter.

[PicsInRed]

What are the chances of a second wave?

100.0%

[feelingverylazytoday]

Nobody knows. No, not even posters on mumsnet, hard as that may be to grasp..

So I'm guessing we are still in some form of lockdown. We are indeed.

[Mawbags]

Inevitable judging by the huge amount of traffic on the roads this morning.... it was as busy as the old days....

Tesco express not much distancing nobody with a mask

[EveryoneLoves09876]

I can't see how it won't happen, logically. Only 7% of the population have had it so far and if there are various strains, having one wouldn't necessarily make you immune.

With restrictions easing all over, it's not like fewer people will get it, so it depends on how well contract tracing works to keep it 'manageable' and lock down different parts of the country as a time.

Seeing the large groups of people mixing though, I don't see how contract tracing will work quickly enough. I also worry about people adhering to it, especially after dominic cummings mess.

So like a pp said, it's more a question of how big of a second wave!

[EveryoneLoves09876]

Our best chance of knowing is to listen to the experts and unfortunately, they're pretty worried about the whole thing

[Deelish75]

I'm beginning to think we'll have ripples over the summer, most people are gathering outside where transmission is less.
It's the autumn I'm getting worried about when people are back indoors where transmission is greater.

[EveryoneLoves09876]

I think autumn is the bigger issue too. I think policy is to let us all out to get it out of our systems, increase in cases but hopfully not too many and then autumn will be harder. In terms of future lockdowns, I feel like we will be advised not to go out properly and all wfh when the big ones hit, but may not be policed in the same way. I think they'll hope we'll still be scared enough to not be too silly. Means they don't have to continue furlough and they have all the nightingale spaces so can deal with more sick people.

[UnmentionedElephantDildo]

A number of experts have indicated concern at the numbers of measures being taken together.

Not only might that precipitate a big increase in new infections, but also we won't know which of the changes might have been the riskiest one/s

[StatisticalSense]

Almost certain that they'll be a second wave, but the relaxations of the restrictions are unlikely to play a major role in it. It will be those people who believe their children shouldn't have to social distance and those who believe a family gathering of more than 6 people is essential due to their circumstances, especially as most of the culprits will be the same people.

[FangsForTheMemory]

It's not if, it's when, and I personally think it will be much worse than the first, because the virus has already had time to spread throughout the population.

[cherryblossommorningstoday]

Very high Chance

More a matter of when, not if.

[GoldenOmber]

Nobody knows, really. Lots of people will tell you that it’s definitely definitely going to happen and be even worse than this one, but they don’t have any extra knowledge.

There are too many things we just don’t know about the virus and the future of how we deal with it. It probably won’t just go away by itself without a vaccine and a very determined eradication campaign, but whether it’ll have the chance to start spreading exponentially in a big way again is not something anyone can tell at this point. Not even if they have seen their local park looking crowded.

[Mascotte]

There haven't been second waves in countries who've already relaxed their lockdowns so hopefully not.

[Devlesko]

Maybe we've all had it anyway.

[AuntieStella]

Second wave seems to have begun in Iran:

www.theguardian.com/world/2020/jun/01/iran-rapid-rise-in-covid-19-cases-stokes-fears-of-second-wave

[Derbygerbil]

There haven't been second waves in countries who've already relaxed their lockdowns so hopefully not.

No country that I’m aware of had relaxed their lockdowns to the extent that things are back to normal... The crowds and close contact that provide fertile breeding grounds for Covid are not permitted.

Iran is a concern... One of the first places outside China to have a wave and cases seem to trending up again quite markedly.