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8,000 new cases a day?

(25 Posts)
randomer Sat 30-May-20 15:56:25

My head is totally mashed . If there are 8,000 new cases a day is this a cause for concern?

I'm sorry but I want my life back but not so badly as to become ill.

OP’s posts: |
TabbyMumz Sat 30-May-20 15:59:37

Yes I heard him say 8000 new cases a day, but on the Government briefing it talks about 2000?

randomer Sat 30-May-20 16:02:50

Are any medics about please? Do 8,000 out of the population " usually" fall ill in May?

OP’s posts: |
nellodee Sat 30-May-20 16:03:53

My understanding is that the 2000 figure is positive tests. This is without any doubt going to be a lower figure than the new cases, although the figure for new cases must necessarily only be an estimate.

cantkeepawayforever Sat 30-May-20 16:04:11

2000 is those identified through testing - ie those who are showing symptoms and being tested.

8000 is the figure estimated for the population as a whole OUTSIDE HOSPITALS, NURSING HOMES AND OTHER INSTITUTIONS from large scale randomised sampling of the population - ie the asymptomatic as well as the symptomatic.

My understanding is that the true number, including in hospitals and care homes, is likely to be higher again - not quite 10,000, as there is some overlap between the two sets of cases reported, but more than 8,000.

Ohchristmastreeohchristmastree Sat 30-May-20 16:04:45

I think the 2000 odd is the lab confirmed cases. Actual cases are higher.
Kings College estimate 11,300 new daily cases.

womaninatightspot Sat 30-May-20 16:05:15

Where are you getting the 8000 new cases a day from? There was 2095 new cases in the UK.

womaninatightspot Sat 30-May-20 16:06:05

Oops cross posted.

cathyandclare Sat 30-May-20 16:06:24

The figure is extrapolated from random population sampling, so is an estimate of positive figures to include asymptomatic people and untested people.

Other countries will probably miss a similar number

StrawberryJam200 Sat 30-May-20 16:06:26

@womaninatightspot that figure was only the ones who actually had tests.

cantkeepawayforever Sat 30-May-20 16:08:13

(The slides from the daily briefing give the confidence interval of the estimate - on 28th May, the weekly number of new infections OUTSIDE HOSPITALS, NURSING HOMES AND OTHER INSTITUTIONS was estimated as 54,000 with a 95% confidence interval from 34,000 - 86,0000. So at that point, about 8,000 per day, though it could be as low as 5,000 and as high as 12,000, plus the hospital / nursing home / prisons etc cases)

cantkeepawayforever Sat 30-May-20 16:09:06

Slides from the press conference page 8

Derbygerbil Sat 30-May-20 16:11:40

Are any medics about please? Do 8,000 out of the population " usually" fall ill in May?

What do you mean? Obviously 8,000 don’t usually fall ill with Covid in May! If you mean generally with some kind of cold/flu, then I’m not sure how that’s relevant.

2,000 or so test positive each day, but the 8,000 is an estimate of the number of people infections, as lots of people won’t get tested and some people won’t have symptoms.

randomer Sat 30-May-20 16:13:55

I read it in the Guardian. I can't cope with a scrap , thanks.

OP’s posts: |
effingterrified Sat 30-May-20 16:14:33

It is certainly strange that we are looking at ending lockdown with those sort of new case numbers before we even start, and with no effective test, track and trace operation in place, given that pre-lockdown, SAGE said new case numbers would need to be below 1000 (I think it was 800?) to think of reducing lockdown.

randomer Sat 30-May-20 16:15:14

Prof Robert West, a member of the Scientific Pandemic Influenza Group on Behaviours (SPI-B) that advises Sage, emphasised on Saturday that about 8,000 infections, and 400 deaths, are still happening each day

OP’s posts: |
cantkeepawayforever Sat 30-May-20 16:16:51

Well, yes. But when the 1st June opening was announced, I think they hoped against hope to get down to that sort of level by now - and since they haven't, they now haven't got the political capital or public support or guts to say 'Oh, actually, no, it's not safe yet so just wait a bit longer'.

2ndtimearound2020 Sat 30-May-20 16:26:52

Is a best guess scenario?

The number confirmed by tests would be the 2000 then.

Out of a population of 66 million it still has a way to go to get the herd immunity that used to be mention (they don't mention it anymore).

There are pockets of higher transmission throughout the country and also some areas with a very low number of cases.

I have no idea how this would compare with seasonal flu and normal/usual deaths from flu or pneumonia though

effingterrified Sat 30-May-20 16:36:27

Not a lot of seasonal flu cases in June. It's the wrong season.

Not sure what this has to do with the 8000 coronavirus case figures?

effingterrified Sat 30-May-20 16:37:11

That should be "8000 new coronavirus case figures per day".

randomer Sat 30-May-20 18:06:19

My question @effing was left of my brain scrabbling about trying to comprehend this stuff. Figures, numbers, lies.

OP’s posts: |
StatisticalSense Sat 30-May-20 18:13:47

Something doesn't add up with the 8000. People have been told to get a test if they are symptomatic and there doesn't seem to be any issues in obtaining a test if you need one, so why are so many cases not being picked up?
The only 2 logical explanations are that most people are ignoring government advice to get tested (in which case the government might as well give up trying to control the virus as it'll never work with such low compliance) or that the majority of cases are asymptomatic. Assuming the latter option it is likely that track and trace will pick up many of these cases and will therefore have a relatively large effect at reducing the spread of the virus, meaning that under either feasible model it makes sense to begin to relax restrictions now that the majority of the track and trace system is in place (as I can't see the bits that are not yet in place having any meaningful effect on the overall rate of infection).

StatisticalSense Sat 30-May-20 18:15:16

The number of supposedly symptomatic people getting tested would suggest that much more than 8000 become ill with something or other on a typical day, unless you believe the vast majority of those being tested are lying about having symptoms.

effingterrified Thu 04-Jun-20 18:08:22

The 8000 new cases a day figure comes from the ONS.

"From the numbers testing positive, the ONS estimates there are 54,000 new coronavirus infections per week in England, or around 8,000 a day."

Or you can believe a bunch of anonymous posters on MN instead of the ONS.

Your call, OP!

noostrich Thu 04-Jun-20 18:10:33

Although, according to the latest news, that 8000 figure is too low - it's actually 9400 new cases a day.

"But the app does not include care homes, where the virus is still thought to be rife – meaning the true infection rate could be significantly higher."

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