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Has the virus become less infectious over time?

(63 Posts)
reeceormeese Sat 30-May-20 13:27:37

We never did get the VE Day spike. And lots of countries that were really badly hit loosened restrictions weeks ago and apart from slight increases, it hasn’t started growing again exponentially and even after these slight increases the cases then went down again.

Has the virus possibly mutated and become less virulent?

OP’s posts: |
SudokuBook Sat 30-May-20 13:28:56

I am not convinced it has but would it not be great if it had

ItsSpittingEverybodyIn Sat 30-May-20 13:32:18

Could be the warmer weather has helped it die down temporarily?

SunbathingDragon Sat 30-May-20 13:42:51

VE day wasn’t that long ago. It takes a while to become infected (up to seven days at least) before then needing to be admitted to hospital (usually from day 10 onwards) and die (can be several weeks later). In total, you are looking five to six weeks ahead for this, possibly longer with the reporting lags.

Cornettoninja Sat 30-May-20 13:43:00

Maybe.

Although it’s far more likely it’s down to the 2 month+ heavy restrictions on movement and gatherings.

Northernsoullover Sat 30-May-20 13:46:17

I think (and indeed have seen credible articles that support this) that the virus spreads much more easily in offices, workplaces, family homes and pubs etc. Outdoors is far less of an ideal environment for it to spread. VE day was dreadful to witness in some areas but I still think that the risk of it spreading was minuscule compared to enclosed spaces.

TweeterandtheMonkeyman Sat 30-May-20 13:46:21

Maybe ... the only person I know who’s had it , had it a couple of weeks ago , tested positive (nhs) , husband tested negative (also nhs) . No one else got ill in the household.

BagpussAteMyHomework Sat 30-May-20 13:51:41

Looks like the infection rate is going up to me

www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/uk/

B1rdbra1n Sat 30-May-20 13:52:47

I agree it's plausible but who knows🤷‍♀️

SudokuBook Sat 30-May-20 13:57:41

Looks like the infection rate is going up to me

Is that not because we are testing more

KatherineJaneway Sat 30-May-20 14:15:15

How many did actually break the rules on VE day though?

Doyoumind Sat 30-May-20 14:17:46

No. I'm no scientist but it's only been around a very short time in the scheme of things and that couldn't happen.

PaquitaVariation Sat 30-May-20 14:18:39

BagpussAteMyHomework

Looks like the infection rate is going up to me

www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/uk/

Does it? None of those graphs seem to indicate that.

Deelish75 Sat 30-May-20 14:20:01

I've just been looking at the graph for hospital admissions for 20-27 May.

Admissions are coming down between 20-23 May, 24-26 May is a plateau, and then it rises on the 27 May.
20 May - 713 People in hospital with Covid
21 May - 675
22 May - 685
23 May - 595
24 May - 471
25 May - 472
26 May - 475
27 May - 552

I can't work out if the plateau is because of the way data was collected over the Spring Bank Holiday weekend and rise was making up for that OR we are witnessing a spike as the 27 May is just over two and a half weeks on from V.E. Day, which would fit in with what SunbathingDragon says.

Hospital admissions for the 28 May should be in today's briefing. Will be interesting to see how they look.

Deelish75 Sat 30-May-20 14:21:39

Link to the graphs

www.gov.uk/government/collections/slides-and-datasets-to-accompany-coronavirus-press-conferences

Oakmaiden Sat 30-May-20 14:23:16

Deaths seem to have been climbing (very slightly) for the past week, according to the NHS data.

MadameMarie Sat 30-May-20 14:31:22

The thing with the VE Day is people had at the time been mostly observing lockdown for weeks so transmission was fairly low. It's more after weeks and weeks of people socialising and partying where a spike is more likely, rather than from that one day.

Redolent Sat 30-May-20 14:35:08

As people have said, outdoor socialising is not a huge issue. It will be the return to work places and school environments that will make the difference. Coupled of course with family seeing each other, nipping to the loo, getting drinks out and slowly eroding the 2m distance...

There is otoh positive evidence that the virus is weakened in direct sunlight....

Eyewhisker Sat 30-May-20 14:39:11

Deelish - is that total number of people in hospital with covid? That looks really low compared to the deaths. I guess most deaths are now in care homes, which have a totally different situation.

daisychain01 Sat 30-May-20 14:40:07

There is otoh positive evidence that the virus is weakened in direct sunlight....

Does that evidence include data from Mediterranean countries (Eg Italy and Spain) that enjoy hours of unbroken sunshine through the year?

Deelish75 Sat 30-May-20 14:42:57

Eyewhisker

It's the "estimated new daily admissions with Covid - 19"

Curious200 Sat 30-May-20 14:44:00

Warm weather has nothing to do with it. Its 44c where I live and coronavirus is still here and spreading. Just to get this misconception out of the way.

MarshaBradyo Sat 30-May-20 14:46:07

I doubt it’s mutated but even a 20% antibody / immunity rate would slow it down. Plus lockdown measures.

Dadnotamum72 Sat 30-May-20 14:51:37

Wasn't the weather correlation more to do with humidity than temperature?

JoeExoticsEyebrowRing Sat 30-May-20 14:52:11

As more people get it the transmission will naturally slow down because immune people will not pass it on as easily.

To be honest, I think a second spike, if it is inevitable, is best to happen whilst we are in the summer months and the NHS is not already under pressure from other winter illnesses etc.

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