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Hypotheses - Rate of infection is too high. A second wave is inevitable.? I don't want a bun fight. Is it possible to discuss this constructively?,

(176 Posts)
bumblingbovine49 Thu 28-May-20 08:10:19


This article summarises how I think things will go. The article suggests that track and trace on its own will.only stop about 15% of cases because our numbers are still so high.

I wanted to ask people who are really keen for things to go back to normal as quickly as possible ( which I completely understand , I am desperate for that too), would you be happy to have the things they are saying here such as compulsory PPE.for some workers , face coverings track and trace, self isolation if ill, restrictions on travel to other areas or.abroad etc ?

Does normal for you mean none of these things. Just literally go what it was like before or do you think some of these things are necessary. Which if any would you comply with ? Should any of them be compulsory?

I really don't know the answer but I am worried that our excess death rate at the end of the year is going phenomenal, we already have close to 60,000 excess deaths for this time.of year. That is one on a thousand EXTRA deaths in about 4 months . That seems a lot

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bumblingbovine49 Thu 28-May-20 08:13:46

Sorry working link here

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Fortyfifty Thu 28-May-20 08:19:20

Your link is not working so not read the article yet.

I'm fearful that for many people it is out of sight, out of mind, and they expect to go back to normal living the same way they lived 12 months ago.

I'm aghast that Spain would let Brits into the country and wonder how trace and track works across international borders.

It's frustrating. The government need a more thorough public health campaign. Stop treating us like we're stupid and communicate facts about how and where transmission occurs most. I don't want a second wave and I'm prepared to live a more restricted life now so numbers go down to a manageable rate.

blackcat86 Thu 28-May-20 08:21:51

I agree and as a household we are starting to prepare for a second wave. I guess I'm a bit of a prepper at heart anyway but scenes of packed beaches, PIL traipsing around local shops and the attitude of my social care boss that we all have to get back to normal just convinces me more that people really havent learnt anything and just want it over, heads in the sand pretending it didnt happen.

hfrdgftcsdg Thu 28-May-20 08:22:02

I wouldn’t do anything that wasn’t compulsory. I will not live my life in fear as I don’t think Covid is dangerous enough to warrant the reaction we have had. That’s your question answered from me as requested so I’d like to think you won’t be back to bite my head off.

oralengineer Thu 28-May-20 08:25:13

It very much depends on where you live. I live in a large rural county where there is low population density, small market towns with and low percentage of crowded living accommodation so our infection rate is low. Generally lockdown compliance has been good. I suspect that it will be the large city conservations that will see a significant second wave when public transport ramps up. They don’t do public transport around here.

BestestBrownies Thu 28-May-20 08:30:34

Of course a second wave is inevitable. Anyone with half a brain knows it.

What this situation has highlighted most for me is how —fucking thick— lacking in critical thinking and unable to properly risk assess people are.

Flossie44 Thu 28-May-20 08:31:02

I live in Cornwall. We are certainly expecting our peak to come..and hit us hard.
I’d be happy to stay with lockdown measures for a little while longer. I’m not saying I want this. God no!! I want to see my family and friends and go out and about like the rest of us. I just feel it may be needed

recycledteenager24 Thu 28-May-20 08:40:32

a second wave just might refocus some of the covid proof idiots out there, but sadly they sometimes take some of the careful ones too. sad

NeurotrashWarrior Thu 28-May-20 08:41:03

Op, the thread "daily numbers, graphs" etc are a good place to discuss ongoing hypothesis, sans bun fights. Though this one is good so far!

I suppose the only counter argument is that the minute it looks like numbers are going off, various key areas will be locked down rather than the whole country, and then the whole country if needed to try to avoid second waves.

I do suspect there may be a type of lockdown in the winter to apprehend a second wave, as flu season will add to it, at the same time, will flu season be reduced due to all the measures?

It all depends on priorities. A key priority at the moment is getting normal nhs services up and running alongside manageable levels of infection; this is all essentially about the nhs. Hence shielding the extremely vulnerable and strict SD for clinically vulnerable etc.

The key data is a second wave among hospital admissions.

Though we really don't know long term impact for cases that were managed at home.

Fortyfifty Thu 28-May-20 08:42:38

I'm not fearful of the virus personally, and I love in a rural county with a low infection and low death rate. But I don't want another full lockdown because that will impact me and my family. I've Year 12dd who needs to be back at school and who needs to be able to go to university open days in Sept/Oct as this sumners were all cancelled. I want the R rate to be so low that a more normal life can return to many, with only small outbreaks occurring which will be both noteworthy and containable.

Redolent Thu 28-May-20 08:51:49

Thank you for posting this OP. I hope people actually read the article before posting.

It is the perverse reality that, with this virus, the more things seem to improve, the more people will act in ways that make things worse. And because the feedback loop with coronavirus is so long, by the time things start to look bad, it will almost certainly be too late for any further measures, and the exponential curve will be well underway.

I don’t think this is restricted to the UK. Many parts of the US are experiencing similar lockdown fatigue, with people chiming with messages of ‘let’s crack on with things’, etc. Not unreasonable, but as the Professor pointed out, to do so without those systems in place - as we did three weeks ago - is clearly folly. And my feeling is, if you don’t know anyone close to you who has suffered due to covid, you are more likely to think this way.

It’s interesting that the article mentions that face coverings should become the new normal, including at government briefings. Even Trump was photographed wearing one. Can you see BoJo doing that soon? Probably again when it’s too late.

Personally, the more people start taking risks with socialising, the more I’m inclined to stay at home and bide my time until we know more.

NeurotrashWarrior Thu 28-May-20 09:03:59

This article does match up with data from the independent sage group on schools; they show modelling for delaying for 2 weeks and also till September. The difference is huge.

Blankscreen Thu 28-May-20 09:23:31

I'm worried. In our local park there are large groups of teenagers and families meeting up everyday.

It's typical isn't it the year when everyone needs to stay inside more we have had the lost amazing weather which makes people want to go out and about.

My neighbours have had relatives over.

The numbers.are of new cases are falling everyday at the moment and that is despite of the VE celebrations which took place nearly 3 weeks ago, I suppose the number of cases might be even lower if they hadn't gone ahead.

The travel industry is putting huge pressure for the 14 day quarantine rule to be lifted. Spain and the other med countries are opening up for business as they need the tourist money in their economies. I don't think people should be holidaying abroad this summer and if you do then you must accept 14 days in quarantine afterwards.

Next week seems to soon to send some children back to school but they seem hell bent on it.

We're are still just keeping ourselves to ourselves and avoiding others.

bumblingbovine49 Thu 28-May-20 09:28:37


I won't bite your head off I promise. I don't know the answer and I completely understand why you won't do anything that isn't compulsory. I think I am trying to understand what is going to happen since I think this government won't make anything much compulsory and as there is so little trust in them, I'm not sure many people will comply with requests either. So here we are.

I honestly don't blame anyone for what they are doing (well unless they are deliberately doing stuff to spread Covid or spread fear like spitting at people etc)

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NeurotrashWarrior Thu 28-May-20 09:32:26

I can't read this but in the telegraph:

bumblingbovine49 Thu 28-May-20 09:41:59

I don’t think this is restricted to the UK. Many parts of the US are experiencing similar lockdown fatigue, with people chiming with messages of ‘let’s crack on with things’, etc

Yes and while I completely understand the feeling behind these statements, I also don't understand the specifics of what people mean. I am very grateful to @hfrdgftcsdg as they are a poster who seems to feel like this and they have replied honestly. They won't so anything unless it is compulsory.

I actually understand that. I have close family in Italy where many of the things we have been asked to do have been imposed quite stringently , mostly because otherwise a lot of people won't do what they are asked to do. They will for a while and in the UK we did well for a while . I am not saying Italy is doing any better, although they do have fewer deaths than us at the moment (for the first time) it is just interesting how different countries have reacted.

I am pretty worried about it though, not on a personal level, just for the sheer numbers.

I imagine someone will come along and tell me everyone dies and that only 0.001% (or some such) of the population will die of this virus and that is probably objectively true, but even that % is A LOT more people than normal.

I am afraid I just don't agree with the view that humans are a parasite on earth and need to decline/die out. I know we are overpopulated but once people are born we generally aim to keep them alive and living a good life for as long as possible , that is a good thing as far as I am concerned

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Pertella Thu 28-May-20 09:47:05

Its impossible to discuss this constructively when, within the space of a few posts, insults are being slung like calling people "idiots" and "fucking thick".

Oysterbabe Thu 28-May-20 09:49:29

I think that death and infection rates will continue to fall, there will be no dramatic second wave, maybe a second bump, and with continued, modest social distancing it will burn itself out. I would be in favour of no mass gatherings, social distancing when inside shops and workplaces etc and from strangers generally but with families able to mix freely between households and schools to all return as normal.

ITonyah Thu 28-May-20 09:52:28

Well, i live in a county with a very low infection and death rate so I'm quite keen to get back to nomral and our schools to open.

I hope when they say they will shut down Regional areas with outbreaks that they mean London as well.

Pertella Thu 28-May-20 09:54:23

I agree oysterbabe. The second wave and spike in cases and death have been constantly predicted since Easter and is yet to materialise.

No doubt once restrictions are lifted there will be a bump, as you put it, but as long as reasonable precautions like those you have suggested, are in place and observed then I dont think we will see any significant or long term increase.

Chilli18 Thu 28-May-20 10:00:08

I agree there will be a second wave and i am trying to prepare now. I live in cornwall and while we have had a low amount of cases i just know it will come and hit us very hard. At the moment you wouldnt think we were im the middle of a pandemic

bumblingbovine49 Thu 28-May-20 10:00:24

@Pertella and @Oysterbabe
Thanks for the replies and it is really interesting to see that neither of of you there will be a big second wave. I really hope you are right

Also just ignore any comments about idiots etc. I think most of this thread so far has been OK. I am also interested both of you are OK with certain restrictions, though mainly to do with those that don't restrict mixing of households. Thanks again for posting

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tinkywinkyshandbag Thu 28-May-20 10:01:12

I think we have to start to open up the economy and allow people to work but I do think that track and trace, mask wearing, social distancing etc are vitally important to allow that to happen safely. The countries that have been most successful have done this - and closed their borders, with quarantine strictly enforced. I can't believe this is still under debate! I am worried that people feel that if lockdown is eased that the crisis is some how over or that the virus has gone away. I've seen lots of reckless behaviour over the past week. I do feel it's a case of give an inch take a mile. Yes we are all fed up and frustrated with lockdown but any transition must be done with the utmost caution.

Lumene Thu 28-May-20 10:04:05

Yes this:

The government need a more thorough public health campaign. Stop treating us like we're stupid and communicate facts about how and where transmission occurs most.

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