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Second wave in July?

(23 Posts)
herecomesthsun Tue 26-May-20 21:11:41

Has anyone else heard of this as a possibility?

I was also told today that I need to be shielding - the person I spoke to said that I shouldn't leave the house till June 30 but there was no advice about how to process after that.

I was a bit disappointed as in fact we have observed lockdown very carefully - and went for our first walk in the countryside immediately next to our home just 3 days ago. I was thinking that with the falling death rate we might be able to enjoy the summer a bit more.

Then a colleague said they had heard a theory that there may be a second wave in July. So could we be locking down again then?

OP’s posts: |
Hagisonthehill Tue 26-May-20 21:16:53

There's no real way if knowing.
There maybe local hotspots like Wester super mare due to lots of visitors hitting the coast,but since a rise in July means catching the virus the end of June with no crystal ball it's all guesswork.
I think it's more likely later in the year as we move indoors and the cold and flu season hit too.

feelingverylazytoday Tue 26-May-20 21:48:55

Anything's a possibility, but it's probably not going to happen.
These scientists working in Singapore predict that the UK will be coronavirus free by August 27th
metro.co.uk/2020/05/23/scientists-have-predicted-exact-date-think-uk-will-coronavirus-free-12747138/

MRex Tue 26-May-20 21:51:42

We can all watch any news from China, Iran, Italy, Spain and Belgium carefully. The truth is that nobody knows.
1) So far the new cases in China were in the north (covid wandered right around the world and crossed back in from Russia), then they supposedly retested the whole 11m people of Wuhan in a matter of weeks due to 6 cases (d'ya think!?!) and say they've found 200 more. But they don't declare them in stats because, well the excuse given is that they're asymptomatic. It really would help of the Chinese government could kick their habit of covering up and just be clear what is or isn't happening.
2) Iran's figures often looked odd. Currently look like they're heading for another peak. Not exponential yet.
3) The hardest-hit European countries are definitively past their peak. Questions about whether it has gone / will come back with lockdown easing / will come back in autumn or spring - nobody knows.
4) Second peaks happen a lot, but they don't always start where the first peak started.

I'm just desperate for playgrounds to open. We'll watch and wait for the rest.

Waxonwaxoff0 Tue 26-May-20 21:53:02

No one really knows. But personally I don't think there will be a second wave. I think as lockdown eases we will see small spikes concentrated in different areas. But no big wave.

Waxonwaxoff0 Tue 26-May-20 21:54:32

@feelingverylazytoday perfect, that's just before my 30th birthday. I'll be able to celebrate at the pub. wink

Scottishgirl85 Tue 26-May-20 21:59:59

Our doctor friends said the NHS are planning for another peak in July

ChippityDoDa Tue 26-May-20 22:00:16

There won’t be a second “wave”, maybe a slight rise here and there. We all need to learn to live with it. I’m sure the media will be devastated when everything, apart from the economy and the education of our children, is absolutely fine by July.

GoldenOmber Tue 26-May-20 22:03:44

NHS doesn’t have secret knowledge about when/whether there’s going to be another peak, don’t worry: They are preparing in case there is for obvious reasons, but hoping there is not.

GalactiCat Tue 26-May-20 22:04:34

Hagisonthehill

There's no real way if knowing.
There maybe local hotspots like Wester super mare due to lots of visitors hitting the coast,but since a rise in July means catching the virus the end of June with no crystal ball it's all guesswork.
I think it's more likely later in the year as we move indoors and the cold and flu season hit too.

Yep. I agree. I think the Weston Hospital spike was due to the nice weather and people deciding their lockdown was over.
I'm sure I read somewhere that they were expecting a second wave in October?

ARudeTerriblePerson Tue 26-May-20 22:06:53

October makes sense because it will be the beginning of flu season.

GalactiCat Tue 26-May-20 22:11:38

ARudeTerriblePerson

October makes sense because it will be the beginning of flu season.

That'll be fun!

Realitea Tue 26-May-20 22:23:21

Just watched the news at 10 and it was quite harrowing. The consultant they interviewed is sure there will be a second peak. Our local hospital is preparing already by changing the layout of the whole building. It’s sensible to prepare but it doesn’t mean it’ll happen. Personally I think it will happen. No one knows though. The virus could also mutate either way, becoming more deadly or less. It’s also possible it could rise in patches of the country but not all. Sadly we’ll just have to wait and see.

MRex Tue 26-May-20 22:28:21

The Weston spike was because half their staff tested positive, as well as a bunch of patients, seems like it was rather unexpected. Something clearly went a bit awry, but the issue there wasn't huge numbers of people, or at least not yet.

FecktheBoss Tue 26-May-20 22:31:07

I think it will happen in places, and that they will lockdown those particular areas rather than the whole country again.

Bol87 Tue 26-May-20 23:09:54

I think there’ll be local outbreaks but not an entire overwhelm. Bit like Weston. It’ll spike up in hot spots. This is why we need the bloody track & trace app now & not in 2021 🤦🏼‍♀️

Sadie789 Tue 26-May-20 23:16:38

There won’t be a second peak/wave.

Has this happened in any other country that’s ahead of us? No.

I more concerned that you haven’t been out for a walk in two months.

FedHimtoTigers1990 Tue 26-May-20 23:41:05

Personally we haven't had a first wave here. I live in a town in Scotland, population around 3500 and as far as i know there have been no cases. I suspect when lockdown eases it will hit us.

DamnYankee Tue 26-May-20 23:58:06

Think hot spots, rather than waves. We are showing an increase (US state) because testing is available all over the place. The media is finally tempering their number with this reminder (b*stards...)

I have heard from several dr. friends who are actually quite hopeful about flu season. They are hoping many people who were not vaccinated against the flu before will choose to be, so they can deal with new Covid cases more effectively in the fall.

Skybluepink123 Wed 27-May-20 00:06:54

What’s the latest on the track and trace app?

Waxonwaxoff0 Wed 27-May-20 07:46:16

@Skybluepink123 I just read it's supposed to go live by the weekend.

longearedbat Wed 27-May-20 08:02:46

Weston super Mare has a very small hospital which has a large catchment area. In that catchment area are a lot of over 65's, many of them in care homes and now actually being tested. This is what has created an apparent 'spike'. It is not at all unusual for W-S-M hospital to close it's doors because of being overrun by norovirus, flu, etc. During normal times they close their A and E with depressing frequency. There is no increase in covid patients in the nearby large hospitals in Bristol and Bath.

UnderTheBus Wed 27-May-20 09:06:18

www.express.co.uk/news/world/1287242/coronavirus-second-wave-latest-world-health-organization-breakthrough-who-lockdown-UK

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