Should Cummings breaking lockdown push back school reopening (Title Edited by MNHQ)

[Raindropsonrosesand]

There is inevitably going to be an increase in infections and deaths in the coming weeks due to people breaking lockdown in reaction to DC's behavior and Boris condoning it.

But there's only one week until the schools open, which will also increase cases and deaths - and it's really important to know how much school reopening has increased transmission, in order to decide how/when the return to school can progress.

Do we need to hold off on re-opening for a few weeks to be able to distinguish between the two causes?

If the increase is so high that we have to shut down again, then at least that's clear. Doesn't really matter why it went up (not to choosing the next steps anyway).

But what about if it goes from 0.7 to 0.9 say? If we assume that letting the next batch of kids back would also increase it by the same amount, then we would hold off. But if that increase is due to DC, then it might be OK for them to go back.

How can we make scientific decisions when the data is going to be muddied?

[purpleboy]

Any increase isn't due to DC it's due to people making reckless decisions, we are all supposed to be capable adults with our own brains who can clearly understand just because 1 person makes stupid decisions we don't all have to follow.

On top of that lockdown restrictions have been lifted for nearly 2 weeks, VE Day was over 2 weeks ago, so there is always the chance of a spike over the next 1-2 weeks anyway.

[Raindropsonrosesand]

Just 2 weeks after VE day, we don't yet know whether there will be a spike in deaths. Anecdotally, hospital admissions went up.

Doesn't really matter whether you want to hold DC responsible or blame people for their reaction to it. My point is that this may make analysing the effect of reopening schools impossible.

[Raindropsonrosesand]

3 weeks is a better gap to separate the effects than one week.

[ChaoticCatling]

The children need to go back, it's not just something that would be nice if absolutely everything is right first. Many are suffering from this lockdown, I think it needs to happen now regardless. I also think we need to get a second wave out of the way before September though.

[iVampire]

I think on MN, you can’t call Cummings DC!!

I know that sounds bossy, but it’s far far too confusing

I bet I’m not the only one who saw your thread title and was going to ask in what ways your DC were breaking lockdown, and suggest you make their school aware so if DC from another families also involved they could be bubbled together

[ChaoticCatling]

I think on MN, you can’t call Cummings DC!! We have DCat to differentiate, so DCum?

[Greendayz]

I don't think you're ever going to have a "clean" opportunity to try just one thing at a time to see what impact it has - if we waited two weeks for schools to go back, so that we could distinguish the DC effect from the schools effect, we'd find that something else happened in those two weeks to complicate things further.

Besides, we don't have only one country to learn from. We can look at Sweden which never closed its schools, and also other countries which opened them a few weeks ago. The real world isn't going to behave like a science lab though unfortunately.

[BlusteryLake]

Sounds like you are anti schools opening and desperately trying to find something to pin it on. Bad luck, OP, schools are going back whether you like it or not.

[AdoreTheBeach]

Really? Are people so stupid that because DC - their neighbour, the chap down the road, the friend of a friend of a friend, whomever, breaks Lock down that it’s an excuse for everyone to break lock down?

Maybe one of these lemmings should form a Congo line and the lot of lemmings jump off the end of a pier. Save us all a load of bother.

[Greendayz]

I don't think people will start doing things they think endanger themselves out their loved ones because of DC's actions adore But if you felt you're low risk and were following rules just because they are the rules then it certainly feels like "why should I bother?"

[user1635482648]

There is still an element of guesswork in scientific decisions anyway.

[cathyandclare]

Just 2 weeks after VE day, we don't yet know whether there will be a spike in deaths. Anecdotally, hospital admissions went up

But actually numbers in hospital with Covid have gone down.

[TheOnlyLivingBoyInNewCross]

It does sound to me as if you don't want schools to go back and have now found something concrete to link that to, rather than that you have a genuine belief that this is going to muddy the waters.

We need to start moving forward and learning to co-exist with this virus.

[thewinkingprawn]

Are people really so toddler like that one person breaking it means that people who previously had followed all the rules are now going to flout it? Jeez.

[StrawberryJam200]

The published statement last night still says that the government will decide on Thur 28th whether schools will open more widely than they already are, according to the five tests. Yes I know this was not mentioned by Boris Johnson yesterday afternoon.

[Raindropsonrosesand]

I'm actually pretty keen for schools to go back, I think it's really important.

I guess I'm mainly just feeling quite angry that now we won't be able to tell whether it's the right time to open up the next years. A couple of weeks doesn't seem like it would make much difference to kids' education. Although it's interesting that it will be the 28th they make a decision: just about gives time to squeeze a week of some other years in before summer, but barely, so maybe those 2 weeks do make a difference.

And yes, I absolutely think some people will think 'fuck it' now. Maybe not completely stopping, but lots of little decisions - to meet siblings as 2 whole families and let the cousins see each other, to meet a SO. Things which probably are low risk for the people doing it, but across the whole population will make a difference. We're making personal sacrifices willingly for the benefit of strangers, but seeing leaders and privileged people not making the same sacrifices is a nudge which will change some peoples choices.

I think on MN, you can’t call Cummings DC I can't believe I didn't notice that!!

[Sunshinegirl82]

@cathyandclare

You beat me to it! I hate BJ and his team but the scientists do stand up there everyday and tell us what is actually happening in terms of the figures. A lot of the anxiety that people feel about things like the R number, number of new cases, hospitalisations etc would be allayed I feel if that information was taken on board.