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What do you expect to change in time for September?

(23 Posts)
KnobJockey Mon 18-May-20 06:03:13

This is for all of those people who say they're not going to send kids back to school in June or July/ go back to work until September. Why? What do you honestly expect to change?

I understand why someone may not want to take the risk of school, but how is that risk going to go away at that point? Those saying kids won't be able to cope with the distancing in schools, how is it going to improve by then? If you don't want to send your kids in then that's absolutely your right and I'm not disputing your decision, but will you keep your child off until a vaccine is produced/ a suitable level of herd immunity is achieved? Because that's not what I'm seeing, and I don't understand it!

I had a discussion with someone yesterday who said this, they said it's because of a second wave coming. I agree we will get a second wave. What will stop it happening in September/ October/ November? Is it not preferable to get the second wave over summer, than when flu season is just starting, and hospitals struggle more?

My question is nothing to do with whether you are sending them back or not, that's a personal risk assessment in my view. I'm also working on the assumption of no vaccine for another year, which could and hopefully will change. But if things remain the same, why does the new school year mean things are different?

OP’s posts: |
Knocksomesense Mon 18-May-20 06:09:36

I am hoping that more time for scientific research will put my mind at rest. 6 weeks ago they knew nothing about the Kawasaki-covid link (or what ever it is). I'm not overly concerned but think time is needed.

My two are preschoolers and I don't see the point of potentially upsetting the apple cart by transitioning them in now and again in September.

FourTeaFallOut Mon 18-May-20 06:12:35

1)Fewer community cases
2)Established contact trace, track and isolate
3)Time for science to answer important questions like - how is actually extremely vulnerable to coronavirus? - are children effective vectors of the virus? - how is it going in schools in countries where children have returned and are they learning anything in these odd conditions?
4)Time for the department of education and the union's to nut out a workable plan instead of throwing kids in to the fray.
And more, you can check out any single thread on the topic off schools and coronavirus.

FourTeaFallOut Mon 18-May-20 06:13:06

How= who

KnobJockey Mon 18-May-20 06:16:44

So your reasoning is nothing to do with the new school year, and to do with medical research? Why is September the magic month? Would you keep them off if it wasn't completed by September, but they said they were close to it and expected it to be done in December, or would you still let them go to school in September? As schools do normally think that kids benefit from a transition period, otherwise they wouldn't do it in July every year.

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startswithanL Mon 18-May-20 06:16:44

I agree with you OP! I just don't think it's a long term view many parents are taking at this point and it's unlikely a vaccine will be produced soon/ within months.

We are going to have to live with the virus like we do other illnesses.

I think the bullshit reporting which is going on and scaremongering from people who should no better doesn't help parents feeling scared.

I am a parent and although I am very wary I don't think keeping my child away from school is something I can sustain so she will be going in all being well...

startswithanL Mon 18-May-20 06:17:11

Know better**

KnobJockey Mon 18-May-20 06:19:39

@FourTeaFallOut I have checked out numerous threads and other conversations, and the criteria for sending kids back often doesn't rely on those key goals being met, but a date on which the school year would normally start.

Those goals being met seem like a reasoned decision. It being the 6th of September doesn't.

OP’s posts: |
KnobJockey Mon 18-May-20 06:20:59

Anybody who wants to keep their kids off, I fully support, and I understand why. I just don't think those issues disappear on the first week of a new school term!

OP’s posts: |
Chrisinthemorning Mon 18-May-20 06:25:22

My son’s school has a 5 week half term and he isn’t in the years that are due back first. It just seems unlikely that they will have his year back before they break up.
I do think it’s a bit soon, our numbers aren’t great, and I think the track and test app needs to be up and running.
More time for medical science to work on treatments and vaccines.
I am not sure September will be better and if it is by November it won’t be- winter.
September gives time for schools to get organised though?

KnobJockey Mon 18-May-20 06:25:38

I also don't think the school's will be able to come up with a more workable plan. Those vunerable still won't be able to be around kids without risk, there won't be enough teachers, they will still have to stagger lunches, we will still need to distance. Unless the government decides to give the school's extra money for these things, effectively double their teaching budget so they can restrict classroom numbers, which seems very, very unlikely, there is very little schools can change between now and then.

OP’s posts: |
SonEtLumiere Mon 18-May-20 06:28:40

My kids are already back at school, but one definite thing is that there will be three more months of seeing the impact of children going back to school.

Camomila Mon 18-May-20 07:23:49

I have a preschooler, I think he'll find the new social distance drop off outside nursery really stressful. He is happy enough at home with me and his baby brother and I have no worries about him being 'ready' for school.

In September school will be a completely different experience so any social distancing/hygeine (less toys) measures won't seem weird to him hopefully!

Ontheblackhill Mon 18-May-20 07:29:29

I hope social distancing will be over by then so school will be more normal. I worry about the emotional impact of socially distanced schooling. I also hope we will have an effective treatment by then.

Sipperskipper Mon 18-May-20 07:35:09

I’m pregnant now and I won’t be in September! Will send DD back to preschool (which she loves) once baby is here and I am recovered (section on 24th August).

She loves it and it will help give me some structure/ a break to my days once newborn has arrived!

attackedbycritters Mon 18-May-20 07:41:51

concepts of risk seem a little odd. There is never no risk.

Every time we do anything there is a risk. A number of children die every year due to asthma triggered by traffic fumes, yet we accept that risk, we don't lockdown for them...lockdown has saved lives of asthmatics.

The children walking to school may also be knocked down by cars...again another risk that is tolerated, it is at an acceptable level. Again the live saved through lockdown are measurable.

It is not a risk of COVID transmission that is the question, but the size of the risk.

The size of the risk is the probability of a serious outcome AND the probability of catching the virus

If the level of virus in society is low and the R value is low, then the risk of catching it becomes very low. I guess that's what most people are thinking about. If r stays below 1 between now and September, then levels will be very low. Much lower than now.

. If we also get better treatment, then the serious outcomes also reduce...and I have heard that already outcomes are better than they were in March

MiniTheMinx Mon 18-May-20 07:53:50

I won't be sending Ds back now. I haven't made any decisions about September.

My thinking is this, if that factor that is down to human behaviour, ie contact and social distancing pushed up RO we see a spike, or overall a peak. Having one peak then controlling for the behaviour factor that effects infection rates, doesn't negate the possibility of a 2nd peak when that factor is changed, such as more social contacts and travelling etc,.. at that point you have again to intervene to push RO back down. Having a 2and peak doesn't mean we wont have a 3rd peak.......everytime we relax lockdown and rely on individuals, and the aggregated effect of individuals behaviour we will more than likely see increased infection rates, every single time!

Quite cynically I'm hoping lots of people do catch it, unfortunately some will die, but if there is any possibility of immunity, and any sort of increase in numbers being immune confers protection to those who haven't had it, by the diminishing number of active cases.

Cynical? yep maybe, but my primary concern is my family, because this shit show of a government cant be trusted, I have no power over others behaviour, or into how this is managed. The only thing I do have is a little bit of autonomy to decide whether to return Ds to school now, or later.

Notonthestairs Mon 18-May-20 08:10:23

So what is going to be different with schools come September?

40somethingJBJ Mon 18-May-20 08:13:32

My son isn’t in one of the years that’s due back yet, but I wouldn’t be sending him anyway as I’m caring my my shielding father, and I’m not prepared to take any risks. September isn’t a magic month; I just feel we’ll have seen by then if the relaxation of lockdown/some kids returning to school has triggered a second peak, plus we are learning more about this virus everyday, so I’m hoping the longer we wait, the more information we we be armed with re the risks and how to deal with them.

I’m fully prepared to de-register and homeschool come September if his dad and I feel that is the safest option. It’s something we’ve been considering for a while anyway, as 14yo ds doesn’t cope fantastically in a school environment and has actually been getting on with his work better at home without the distractions, so we’ll reassess towards the end of the summer break.

40somethingJBJ Mon 18-May-20 08:14:08

*for my, not my my!

FergusSingsTheBlues Mon 18-May-20 08:19:40

There will be another wave kicking off as the school open.
I just want my kids to avoid the second wave to be honest.
However if called in, they will be going (yrs 2&4)

tabulahrasa Mon 18-May-20 08:29:59

It’s not that September is a magical date.

It’s that now is too soon and September is the natural point for schools to return if they hold off a bit longer.

Sending some year groups back to school without having low enough numbers in the community to track and trace and before they can mix with even 1 other household doesn’t even make sense....

Sondor Mon 18-May-20 08:33:50

Initially I thought the same and was preparing to send DS back if (big if) the schools do open on 1 June. Over the last week several key pieces of information have changed my mind including:

The R number in my region is very close to 1. If I were in London I may consider it as it's so much lower.

The BMA recommendation that it is too early due to lack of robust testing.

Advice from a GP that locally this would not be a good idea. The government line of 'little evidence' that CV-19 impacts children is simply because internationally the studies have not been done.

I'm not saying I will keep him off until September, I will keep him off until we judge (on the limited available evidence) it's safe to send him back in.

Hopefully over the next few months locally the R number will drop, quicker and more accurate testing will be established and further scientific study into how this virus impacts children will be performed and published.

I don't judge anyone for sending their child in. I have key worker relatives who have had to do it from day one. I however am furloughed for the foreseeable so have the luxury of making this decision.

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