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Covid cases increasing

(114 Posts)
weepingwillow22 Sun 17-May-20 19:16:45

Is anyone else using the zoe app where around 3.6m people are reporting any or no symptoms of covid?
covid.joinzoe.com/

Until recently the app was showing a nice fall in people reporting symptoms however in the last 10 days they have stabilised and started to increase again.
Peak april 1st 2.1m suspected cases
8th may 230k suspected cases
17th may 252k suspected cases

I realise the data is self reported however the trend should be accurate and reflective of actual cases.

Is anyone else worried about this? We can't rely on government data on cases as test numbers are increasing/unstable and the death data lags by 2 weeks. I was going by this app to show some progress but it seems like we are going in the wrong direction.

I have also looked at the maps in the app and reported symptoms are increasing in London despite the government is saying the r number is very low here.

If this app is correct the death rate should stop falling soon.

LilyPond2 Sun 17-May-20 19:31:07

I had noticed the same thing and had posted about it on a couple of other threads.

Sleepyblueocean Sun 17-May-20 19:32:29

I noticed that. I have wondered if some people are saying they have symptoms when they don't. Or it could be a slight variation on a generally downward trend. Or it could be going up.

HairyFloppins Sun 17-May-20 19:34:49

I have only just heard about it so I registered as I felt a bit unwell for a couple of days I don’t think it was COVID though.

Hayfever is bad at the moment it could be lots registering for that reason.

Cornettoninja Sun 17-May-20 19:35:50

Yup me too. I unfortunately live and work across two areas that have shown an increase over the last few days and it concerns me. We’re in an area with a few commuter towns into London.

I was already very tentative about sending dd into preschool in June and an increase in numbers isn’t what I wanted to see. It’s not completely unexpected though so I will sit tight and see how it all develops.

CKBJ Sun 17-May-20 19:36:16

Let’s hope it’s just a little blip...I’m not convinced will be watching it closely over the next few days.

LilyPond2 Sun 17-May-20 19:36:44

The fact that neighbouring areas often move together suggests to me that the data is reasonably accurate, at least in terms of showing trends.

GoldenOmber Sun 17-May-20 19:36:51

I’d noticed that too. It might be a result of the number of users growing quite a lot around the same time? Not that more people = higher percentage of course, but if more people are finding out about the app, maybe people with symptoms are more likely to try using it?

weepingwillow22 Sun 17-May-20 19:37:07

The lowest number was reported on ve day after which there has been an increase. I am hoping the increase is as a result of people being more worried and more likely to report symptoms after socialising rather than actual infections afrer socialising. It may also reflect other infections colds etc. I guess we only have to wait a week or so to see this reflected in deaths.

museumum Sun 17-May-20 19:38:42

I’ve reported symptoms I think are not covid but I’d feel really stupid if later on it did turn out to be the first signs. I had a Terrible migraine so ticked Headaches and ds had a sore throat which I think is hay fever.

LilyPond2 Sun 17-May-20 19:41:44

On the hayfever thing, I doubt the increase will be due to that, as they don't automatically count everyone with symptoms as having Covid-19. They compare people's reported symptoms with those of people who had a positive test for Covid-19 and estimate from that whether an untested person's symptoms are likely to be due to Covid.

NaturalCleaningParticles Sun 17-May-20 19:42:03

Same here @museumum. I've reported headaches & fatigue recently but it's probably just period related. I still wanted to report it just in case.

DobbyTheHouseElk Sun 17-May-20 19:43:48

I’m not sure I’m using the app correctly. It doesn’t give me any data. I tick, I’m feeling normal or whatever it is. That’s all.

Cornettoninja Sun 17-May-20 19:43:51

In fairness a lot of tests are negative so even allowing for false negatives there’s clearly something else doing the rounds which causes the same initial symptoms (I’d quite like to know what that is!).

My trust publishes their corona test result data and it’s usually approximately something like 2500 tests a day and 400-500 of those are actually positive.

DamnYankee Sun 17-May-20 19:43:52

Testing is also increasing.

Cornettoninja Sun 17-May-20 19:45:43

@DobbyTheHouseElk if you’re feeling normal it won’t ask you any further questions. If you select ‘not feeling quite right’ you’ll be forwarded to more detailed questions.

weepingwillow22 Sun 17-May-20 19:46:16

It would be interesting if there was published data on the % of tests that are positive to compare it with.

LilyPond2 Sun 17-May-20 19:47:27

@DamnYankee increased testing is unlikely to have an increase on the JoinZoe statistics because of how they are produced.

whenwillthemadnessend Sun 17-May-20 19:50:31

Yes i have also noticed a slight increase. I wake every day with a sore throat and today I have a head but I no it's hormones so I just report as fine. Maybe others are more honest?

weepingwillow22 Sun 17-May-20 20:00:40

@whenwillthemadnessend. You should report your symptoms. I reported a sore throat and zoe sent me a testing kit on the basis of that alone. I will be using it tomorrow .

DamnYankee Sun 17-May-20 20:15:46

@LilyPond2

Hmm. Interesting. Just clicked on the website. Will have to research that further. Seems like a stats model that might (yet again) Be a big old maybe

They compare people's reported symptoms with those of people who had a positive test for Covid-19 and estimate from that whether an untested person's symptoms are likely to be due to Covid.

I guess we'll see. PPs' comments about their allergies are very interesting. I don't have them, but I can see where there would be a concern. Also wondering - as things open up here - if people are going to be quicker to go to the ER's for other complaints and get tested there...

whenwillthemadnessend Sun 17-May-20 20:24:41

Oh wow. Right I'll do that hen!

BaileysforBreakfast Mon 18-May-20 07:01:39

I've just done a home test, which was sent to me after I reported sore throat and headache to ZOE. I'm 99.9% certain I'm not infected as I've had minimal contact with anyone for almost two months. I think they're just rolling out more tests now, which is a good thing IMO.
The courier will collect test today and I should have results in 2-3 days apparently.

InfiniteSheldon Mon 18-May-20 07:11:02

Lowest numbers on VE day.... when people were busy?

IncrediblySadToo Mon 18-May-20 07:12:01

I have the APP & report every day. No way would I report 'symptoms' if I just had a normal headache or whatever

I can't see (on the APP) where the reporting figures are ? Or are you looking at the website that you linked to that doesn't seem incredibly accurate -more gimmicky?!

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