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Some graphs illustrating why UK should probably wait a few more weeks to lift any lockdown measures.

(37 Posts)
Guylan Sun 17-May-20 14:26:33

Firstly, I know the UK can’t stay lockdown forever, but I think there is a good argument that the number of cases need to be a bit lower before significantly lifting lockdown measures especially as the testing, tracing and isolating system is not ready yet.

Some other European countries had their peak a bit earlier than the UK so their daily cases are now lower and they can start to ease lockdown measures. This screenshot shows the number of daily cases amongst various European countries.

This petition - not asking anyone to sign - gives some useful info on how Johnson’s govt are still not following WHO advice. www.change.org/p/uk-government-the-uk-government-must-follow-who-advice-on-dealing-with-covid-19?recruiter=1084796503&utm_source=share_petition&utm_medium=copylink&utm_campaign=share_petition&utm_term=share_petition

I fear UK locked down that bit too late and now are in danger of lifting measures that bit too early.

OP’s posts: |
wheresmymojo Sun 17-May-20 14:31:02

Yes...have been saying this on FB but basically from what I'm gathering on threads on here the amount you care is directly correlated to how bored you are of lockdown hmm

PerspicaciaTick Sun 17-May-20 14:42:19

People in the UK keep banging on about a second spike, in reality we just face a longer, steeper climb to get to the top of the first spike.

ToffeeYoghurt Sun 17-May-20 14:54:14

I expect you'll shortly get people coming on here spluttering some kind of nonsense about how we mustn't go on facts alone and it's all about looking at it when it's all over and it's not just about numbers because it's different here.... just because it is...apparently...and other such gobbledegook witterings.

You're absolutely right, and we could and should use the next two to three weeks in lockdown to sort out what all those other countries did. PPE, tests, drugs, masks, border restrictions.

The other countries will see their economies recover far sooner than ours. Minus tens of thousands of additional avoidable deaths.

CurlyEndive Sun 17-May-20 15:00:40

Hi OP, I think the problem with your graphs is that the number of cases depends on number of tests, so it's not necessarily a good measure. The same graphs based on number of deaths rather then number of cases give a clearer sign that the UK is past the peak. See attached.

Greysparkles Sun 17-May-20 15:01:20

But our daily infections are nowhere near where they were at the peak, they looks the same now as we are testing 10x more people than back then.

ToffeeYoghurt Sun 17-May-20 15:01:38

The first one's arrived.

TheCountessofFitzdotterel Sun 17-May-20 15:05:22

What CurlyEndive and GreySparkles said.
Our graph of infections only shows a fraction of what they were at peak and we ramped up testing hugely between then and now.

HairyFloppins Sun 17-May-20 15:08:57

Third ones arrived as well Toffee.

I follow this guy on Twitter and his graphs show the infection rate is dropping due to the fact we are testing much more.

ToffeeYoghurt Sun 17-May-20 15:12:13

Yes we ramped up testing. As did the other countries.

The number of deaths speak for themselves.

It's not difficult for anybody with an ounce of common sense to realise our infection rate won't go down by much - and will undoubtedly rise again - when we have no measures in place to lower it. You don't need a graph to understand that basic fact.

We're one of the only countries in the world that hasn't put in place some form of border restrictions or checks. We have once again crowded public transport. Lockdown easing before the R rate is low. All in all a recipe for disaster.

IcedPurple Sun 17-May-20 15:14:28

There are all sorts of graphs available about different aspects of this pandemic, and many different ways of interpreting them.

Rather comical that certain posters above are insisting that a handful of graphs used to support an obvious agenda - a petition - are unimpeachable 'facts' that you aren't allowed to question, as that would be 'gobbledegook'.

PumpkinPie2016 Sun 17-May-20 15:15:59

Not saying I disagree with you, however,I think it's sometimes hard with so much data around and more testing.

Public health England graph attached is what's confusing me (brain is fried right now). Their graph of daily cases by specimen date shows only 55 new cases in England from specimens taken on 15th May, yet the overall figure was 3000+ cases.

I'm assuming that it's a lag in reporting positive results that means the overall figure is 3000+ but numbers of positive tests from specimens taken that day is so much lower (obviously this doesn't include Wales, Scotland, NI, but even if it did, it seems unlikely they would have many more cases).

So this graph makes things look much more positive than the overall figures in that new cases seem to be coming down. I may be completely wrong though!

Bool Sun 17-May-20 15:18:40

@ToffeeYoghurt nobody is preventing you doing a harder stricter lockdown. The rest of us need to pay our mortgages

RunningNinja79 Sun 17-May-20 15:26:09

There's only really been one measure lifted. We can go out for the day and not just for exercise.

The people being encouraged to go back to work could always work.
There has never been a limit to the amount of time you could exercise and the amount of times you went out was just in the guidelines, it wasn't enforceable. The hour rule was a load of nonsense spouted about here and there, it was never mentioned in any government guidance.

Same with driving somewhere to exercise. That was allowed too. Only now you dont have to exercise more than driving.

Schools going back isn't for another 2 weeks at the earliest so 3 weeks since the last announcement. Plus if the unions (not necessarily the teachers) get their way it wont be for a bit longer anyway.

Also as PP have said our cases aren't going down as fast because we are testing more and more people all the time. The percentage of postive Vs negatives has changed I assume. Not anything I've seen, but simple maths. Test 30 thousand people and get 4 thousand positives is 13.3333333% positive. Test 100 thousand people and get 4 thousand positive is 4% positive.

This virus is going nowhere not unless there's a cure or a vaccine. There are other things to consider. OK so I'm not saying we should all go back to normal now, but I really can't see why we should stay in lockdown a few more weeks

ToffeeYoghurt Sun 17-May-20 15:28:45

Book That would only protect me. I'm concerned about other people. Some might be happy to keep Othering large groups. I'm not. And actually I can't protect myself. Not financially. Not completely. The economic damage caused by failing to tackle the pandemic will affect all of us. Some of us are better placed perhaps to ride the storm but again I care about others too.

ToffeeYoghurt Sun 17-May-20 15:33:47

And I'm not arguing for an ongoing strict lockdown. I want us to take the much needed extra two to three weeks (very short period of time in the grand scheme of things) to lockdown - and use that time wisely. Prepare for a safer easing. Quite simple measures, achieved by other countries. PPE, more testing including antibodies, drugs, masks, border restrictions. Job done. A safer way out that avoids many more needless deaths and further economic damage.

Good luck paying your mortgage in a bad second wave or prolonged first wave with all the economic disruption that causes.

JimMaxwellantheshippingforcast Sun 17-May-20 15:48:57

@HairyFloppins

I love looking at the graphs from Peng

WeAllHaveWings Sun 17-May-20 15:49:34

The only figure that matters to me is the excess deaths. Every other figure is meaningless or can be inaccurate/presented to suit an agenda.

To me these graphs show it is not sufficiently under control in the UK.

WeAllHaveWings Sun 17-May-20 15:50:34

Graph

Guylan Sun 17-May-20 15:52:12

This virus is going nowhere not unless there's a cure or a vaccine. There are other things to consider. OK so I'm not saying we should all go back to normal now, but I really can't see why we should stay in lockdown a few more weeks

@RunningNinja79, the argument is until a vaccine or therapeutics are developed (and I know neither are guaranteed, especially vaccine, I have more hope medications to stop the illness getting severe in some will be found) a well run testing, contact tracing and isolating system is the best chance of keep the cases reasonably low level. Also it will allow the epidemiologists to identify which areas have higher cases and respond accordingly for that particular area. For this to work first the system needs to be in place and reports say that though the government are supposedly working on it it is not ready yet and secondly the cases need to get to a lower level and R number to work effectively.

OP’s posts: |
nellodee Sun 17-May-20 15:54:09

I did a little comparison of the stats for last Wednesday. I chose a day midweek, because a lot of countries have weird weekend dips. I put Denmark in there, because people keep talking about Denmark, and Sweden in there, because it gets a lot of interest. Really, the countries we want to compare ourselves with are the larger ones.

nellodee Sun 17-May-20 15:56:02

For full clarity: the new cases for France weren't there for that day - I chose the higher of the two surrounding days (I couldn't be bothered to start again) but I think they may be a bit high, since the day in the middle was missing for some reason.

Guylan Sun 17-May-20 15:56:12

Ps @runningninja, I should add I don’t know whether it’s necessary to reverse the v few lockdown measures that were lifted this week - and I am also aware that 49% of the working population have been working outside the home throughout the lockdown - I think probably no. However, there does seem a strong case to not lift them further for a few more weeks.

OP’s posts: |
HairyFloppins Sun 17-May-20 15:57:02

@JimMaxwellantheshippingforcast yes love Peng here as well.

Guylan Sun 17-May-20 15:59:59

And I'm not arguing for an ongoing strict lockdown. I want us to take the much needed extra two to three weeks (very short period of time in the grand scheme of things) to lockdown - and use that time wisely. Prepare for a safer easing. Quite simple measures, achieved by other countries. PPE, more testing including antibodies, drugs, masks, border restrictions. Job done. A safer way out that avoids many more needless deaths and further economic damage.

Agree Toffeeyoghurt.

Thanks Nellodee for your table.

Weallhavewings, I agree excess deaths is the best measure. Thanks for sharing the euromomo graphs.

OP’s posts: |

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