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Infections peaking in the North East - how?

(21 Posts)
Joan0fSarc Sat 16-May-20 14:21:39

Lots of sources are saying that the North East is now the main UK hotspot - I read yesterday that there are 4000 infections for every 24 in London. While it's great that the numbers are coming down elsewhere, I'm a bit baffled as to how, two months into lockdown, the numbers are rising so quickly in the NE. I live in a large NE city and the streets and roads are virtually empty, people are observing social distancing and seem, with only a few exceptions, to be adhering to the guidelines. So why/how is this happening?

Our infection/death rates are similar to those in London near the start of lockdown, when the 'benefit' of it hadn't yet kicked in. If the vast majority are doing as they're told, how are the numbers rising the way they are? And how can they be lowered when everyone's locked down already, and the lockdown has actually been eased slightly?

OP’s posts: |
Flaxmeadow Sat 16-May-20 14:24:29

It's Yorkshire and the North East

I think most of it will be in Yorkshire

TheDailyCarbuncle Sat 16-May-20 14:25:17

Because lockdown doesn't actually do much to limit the spread of a virus that is already out there. As long as people wash hands and are careful about contact, lockdown isn't necessary.

What is necessary is ensuring that the virus isn't spread in hospitals and care homes. That is done with careful testing and isolation of cases. That's not happening. So the virus is spreading among the most vulnerable people, while people who are extremely low risk sit at home pointlessly watching the economy burn.

ivykaty44 Sat 16-May-20 14:27:02

I had information that the NE is substantially down and that 4 days ago

MarieQueenofScots Sat 16-May-20 14:27:08

Wasn’t it always the suggestion that other areas would peak 3/4 weeks after London?

GabriellaMontez Sat 16-May-20 14:29:26

Why would other areas peak after london? We all locked down at the same time.

inmylifeIlovedthemall Sat 16-May-20 14:31:14

Because Yorkshire today is inundated with people driving to the coast and taking country walks.

On my regular walk where I normally see 3-4 people, I passed over 100 this morning, mostly with rucksacks. 6 were even sitting on the logs in the woods having a jolly picnic.

I gave up and came home.

Joan0fSarc Sat 16-May-20 14:31:37

@Flaxmeadow the infection rate in Gateshead, South Tyneside and Sunderland is higher than anywhere in Yorkshire. Sunderland has been hit shockingly badly.

@TheDailyCarbuncle we do have a lot of care homes here, I think it's quite an ageing population. And of course then you have the thousands of staff who work in them. Similarly we have lots of major hospitals with thousands of staff.

I would have agreed with you about people with extremely low risk until last week. A man I know in his 30s, fit and well, died after a month on a ventilator. So while the risk may be lower it's still there - his death brought that home like a kick in the teeth.

Also you can't guarantee everyone will wash their hands and so on. And public transport without social distancing measures would be a recipe for disaster.

OP’s posts: |
Needingsupportplease Sat 16-May-20 14:32:29

I live in yorkshire people aren't following the rules at all where I live. It's a joke to be honest not surprised at all!

Windyatthebeach Sat 16-May-20 14:32:58

Our area personally is due to a huge increase in people exercising here now lockdown has eased. Imo

Social distancing down the pan sadly..
Had to walk my dpuppy through some shrubs to avoid numpties the other day!!
Local highly rated chippy reopened also...
Queues insane..

vanillandhoney Sat 16-May-20 14:33:17

Well, I'm in Cumbria and you wouldn't think we were in the middle of a pandemic. People camping overnight, staying at their second homes, going to each other's houses, meeting up in groups down at the beach.

There are people out everywhere.

Joan0fSarc Sat 16-May-20 14:33:26

Why would other areas peak after london? We all locked down at the same time

Exactly.

Surely the number should only be coming down, everywhere? If people aren't mixing, how can it be spreading so quickly?

OP’s posts: |
Joan0fSarc Sat 16-May-20 14:37:10

All those out taking advantage of the eased lockdown guidelines this weekend aren't affecting the current figures though. But God help us in a week or two when infections skyrocket yet further thanks to them.

To be fair, I can totally understand people getting out after weeks of not being able to. And they're acting on government advice so they think it's fine. It's the government I blame for giving people 'permission' to pack beauty spots and beaches or whatever.

OP’s posts: |
vanillandhoney Sat 16-May-20 14:38:28

All those out taking advantage of the eased lockdown guidelines this weekend aren't affecting the current figures though. But God help us in a week or two when infections skyrocket yet further thanks to them.

It's been like this for ages here. Probably since Boris originally extended lockdown a month or so ago. People just don't care.

MarieQueenofScots Sat 16-May-20 14:38:40

Why would other areas peak after london? We all locked down at the same time

The inference was certainly people travelling away from London whilst we were still in “happy birthday” mode.

I’m in Yorkshire, locally we haven’t had an issue. We’ve had problems with people coming to walk but other than that people are observing lockdown still.

Flaxmeadow Sat 16-May-20 14:41:50

the infection rate in Gateshead, South Tyneside and Sunderland is higher than anywhere in Yorkshire. Sunderland has been hit shockingly badly

Sheffield has always had a very high rate of infections and deaths, similar to Birmingham, and even overtook London (per capita) a couple of times and that was weeks ago.

West and South Yorkshire are highly populated counties. At about 4 million people together. It's where the vast majority in Yorkshire live

I think being an urban area can make a huge difference to the numbers. More than we think maybe?

DominaShantotto Sat 16-May-20 14:45:12

It's the Sunderland and South Tyneside area in particular. Think they had a few initial cases, and the areas of the city they were in were very much those areas where a lot of the same family live in the same few streets and so had a lot of contact - which got it established very well to start with. Add in deprivation generally, an older population (something Sunderland in particular has compared to the NE in general) lots of previous heavy industry meaning people have things like knackered lungs to start with (mining, ship building etc) and the fact that you have basically (flashing back to my Geography lessons) a conurbation between about Teeside and the upper end of Newcastle and it's fairly understandable how it's become a hotspot there.

It's definitely NOT people wanting to go for a picturesque stroll along Hendon beach in Sunderland!

Vinorosso74 Sat 16-May-20 14:50:16

The rate where my parents live in North Tyneside is higher than the inner London borough I live in. My parents aged mid 70s are doing more supermarket trips than really necessary, a few days after B&Q and Homebase opened guess where they went? No doubt they will hit a few garden centres too.
Ok that's only two people but I despair!

NeurotrashWarrior Sat 16-May-20 14:58:17

There's a wide variety of reasons for it; some areas had very low compliance with the lock down, certainly initially. Middlesbrough was the worst in the county for this. There's different testing procedures and also on r4 yesterday or the day before a woman in the nhs from that area pointed out that there are v high numbers of people with the key risk factor diseases eg obesity and diabetes in those areas.

NeurotrashWarrior Sat 16-May-20 15:00:04

Dh works with a lot of builders and contractors in the ne and says he sees a certain attitude among young and middle age men of "no fear."

KittenVsBox Sat 16-May-20 15:00:20

Suggestions, as above, that people have wrecked lungs from heavy industry in the area.
Mass deprivation and poverty in parts of the region.
Lots of manufacturing that is still operating (well, many of the chemicals plants in Teesside for sure).
One of the lowest, self reported, adherence to the lock down.

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