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How many lives do you think we have saved because of lockdown

(11 Posts)
Alex50 Fri 15-May-20 17:22:41

It would make me feel a lot better to have an idea, as my husband and I might be made redundant next month 😔 I would feel it was all worth it if I knew we had saved say 10,000 lives?

OP’s posts: |
NotEverythingIsBlackandWhite Fri 15-May-20 17:40:07

I think probably 10 times the amount that have died so maybe up to 500,000.

Scottishgirl85 Fri 15-May-20 17:53:39

I think in years to come we will find that the non-COVID deaths as a result of lockdown, reduced health services and screening and a deep recession will be higher than the COVID deaths.
I'm so sorry about your jobs flowers

Scottishgirl85 Fri 15-May-20 17:55:52

But to your question, the 'do nothing' option was predicted to cost 500,000 lives.

Alex50 Fri 15-May-20 18:05:39

That makes it all worth while 😊 My daughter’s friend has just lost their dad, he has 5 siblings 😢 he had an argument with his dad before he went into hospital and didn’t get a chance to see him again, if me being at home has saved even 10,000 families from loosing a parent I would feel better.

OP’s posts: |
XDownwiththissortofthingX Fri 15-May-20 19:15:40

Covid crisis is far from over yet, so even though we're expecting lockdown restrictions to be eased, I don't think you can realistically tell how many lives it has saved until this had played out fully and the virus either eradicated entirely, or diminished to the point whereby it's safe to continue our lives as before with practically zero added risk.

I personally think the UK locked down at least two weeks too late, that has cost lives, and I think that if we emerge from lockdown in the next 2-3 weeks that will inevitably lead to a surge in R, new cases, and fatalities. In worst case scenario, where we are still dipping in and out of a half-hearted lockdown at the end of the year, then I think the rolling total of casualties will be such that you could contend lockdown hasn't saved any lives at all.

We should have done this far sooner, far more studiously, and then I think there would definitely have been a very tangible benefit. As things stand right now, I think it's too early to tell.

ragged Fri 15-May-20 20:48:33

We won't know until after the vaccine arrives.
My guess is that about 200k premature deaths will be prevented by then (all causes).

yogz1976 Sat 16-May-20 03:26:01

Perhaps Sweden has/will show that the model dreamt up by Neil Ferguson was overly pessimistic.

XDownwiththissortofthingX Sat 16-May-20 03:42:14

I'm not sure why people continually point to Sweden, yet ignore Italy, Spain, USA, UK etc.

Sweden is emphatically NOT 'doing nothing'.

yogz1976 Sat 16-May-20 11:42:02

Sweden have listened to their epidemiologists and taken a calm, measured approach, knowing that it is pointless to try and outwit a respiratory virus. They had a very loose "lock down" if you can call it that, but they appear to have struck a satisfactory balance between the health of their population, safeguarding their health service from being overwhelmed, avoiding total economic collapse and upholding peoples' natural freedoms. It is projected that Stockholm will achieve saturation (ie, "herd immunity") by end of May, which, in the absence of a vaccination, is their best hope for avoiding a 2nd wave this winter. At some point, we are all going to follow the Swedish model. Unless of course you are New Zealand, and you are willing to cut yourself off from the rest of the world.
This is why people are pointing to Sweden.

SheWranglesRugRats Sat 16-May-20 11:47:21

Well, it’s massively reducing deaths from air pollution but in the long term will massively increase deaths from worsening social inequality and economic depression. In the long run I think it’ll cause more not fewer.

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