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The R is close to 1 already

(107 Posts)
Realitea Fri 15-May-20 16:24:28

Just had a worrying update from sky news
Anyone else seen this?
The official estimate has risen slightly over the last week according to SAGE

OP’s posts: |
Iamthe1andonlyyyyy Fri 15-May-20 16:25:25

Yes just seen this. They are saying due to care joke spread they think

Iamthe1andonlyyyyy Fri 15-May-20 16:25:36

Care home

Realitea Fri 15-May-20 16:27:29

Hopefully they’ll be questioned about this today

OP’s posts: |
cheninblanc Fri 15-May-20 16:27:57

But there's still staff going in and out, bit concerning whatever. It shouldn't be that way in care homes but that's a separate thread 😔

Realitea Fri 15-May-20 16:30:34

I guess it is sad it makes me so sad to think of those poor people in homes, the fear and not being able to see their families breaks my heart

OP’s posts: |
softjellycell Fri 15-May-20 16:31:34

It'll be over 1 before the end of the week.

Selfsettling3 Fri 15-May-20 16:32:53

Was that across the country or by region? I’m concerned because we are in the NE where the R is higher.

redferrari Fri 15-May-20 16:33:04

It's confusing that London's number seem to be reducing but the R rate seems to be going up. Does this mean cases in London might go up too? Worrying because public transport is going to increase next week isn't it?

wonderstuff Fri 15-May-20 16:35:25

It seems that R in London is significantly lower than elsewhere. Not seen any explanation of why though.

rosie1959 Fri 15-May-20 16:38:49

Surely the R is calculated by what is happening in the community Care homes included would distort the figure ?

cloud1183 Fri 15-May-20 16:42:00

Maybe the mass VE day street parties have contributed too

cheninblanc Fri 15-May-20 16:43:50

It is Rosie, but there's still staff coming and going. Same with hospital admissions staff have to go home, not every member of staff gets ppe (me). Even though we have a small cluster of our team all postive this week. I'd like to say this is a blip and hope it is

CuriousaboutSamphire Fri 15-May-20 16:44:51

It would always overstate the guesstimated R, which would be a protective margin of error.

TJH130 Fri 15-May-20 16:49:21

Message deleted by MNHQ. Here's a link to our Talk Guidelines.

JudyCoolibar Fri 15-May-20 16:49:52

They may be seeing some of the first infections resulting from VE day parties.

CurlyhairedAssassin Fri 15-May-20 16:52:30

Too early for that, Judy.

ohlookthisisjustdaftnow Fri 15-May-20 16:53:33

Or it could be as a result of the massive increase in testing, and those results are now filtering through.

wintertravel1980 Fri 15-May-20 16:55:54

Surely the R is calculated by what is happening in the community Care homes included would distort the figure ?

I fully agree with the theory but Patrick Vallance mentioned at one of the briefings that they are usually referring to the aggregated R0 that includes transmissions in the community and care homes.

The government is very wary of perception that they are disregarding / de-prioritising care home transmissions but the reality is you address two issues separately. Care home spread can and should be minimised through extensive and frequent testing of residents and personnel. Community transmissions are managed through social distancing and - in the worst case - lockdown.

ginnybag Fri 15-May-20 16:56:16

London is lower, because London is further ahead in the curve than most of the rest of the UK.

It remains to be seen if it stays that way now.

Toomanycats99 Fri 15-May-20 16:56:48


I would assume because London got hit first didn't it - so would make sense for us to be ahead now as well because more people probably caught we it stuffed on tubes for the month after feb half term after everyone came back from skiing. So more people in community are now immune compared to other areas.

Nanalisa60 Fri 15-May-20 16:57:59

O don’t worry according to another post on MN today London will be virus free by the end of the month!! So Sod the rest of us 🤣🤣🤣

SnickettyLemon Fri 15-May-20 17:00:11

Are we really surprised that people are no longer staying home , and the R rate has increased?

TJH130 Fri 15-May-20 17:00:50

Message deleted by MNHQ. Here's a link to our Talk Guidelines.

pussycatinboots Fri 15-May-20 17:01:01

The Mayor or Council Leader from Gateshead has said their R is 1.1 and has advised residents to ignore the governments "Lert" advice and stick with "Stay Home".

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