Seen a couple of threads about this on twitter. Obviously we don't have any reliable data about how many actual positive CV cases there are in the UK population versus before lockdown (rather than just those who have formally been tested positive) but it's bound to be higher now than on 23 March when the official number of active cases was around 6000. It's now around 190,000 and still rising daily.
So even if we assume there were 20 (just a number I've plucked out of the air)x 6000 cases at the start of lockdown there are still almost definitely more now, right? and each case is a risk of infection to the non-infected. The only way this isn't true is if lack of testing in March accounts for the difference between 6k and 190k. which seems a stretch.
Informally I've heard that numbers of new cases are rising again.
I do feel despair at the lockdown being perceived as having lifted and at the lack of strategy in testing and isolating.
Sorry if I'm covering ground that's been discussed here already, I don't go on here much and find it a bit overwhelming!
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Risk of infection is probably higher now than at the start of lockdown?
52 replies
SeenBaun · 12/05/2020 16:15
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