Will the airline industry ever return to normal?

[doobiedop]

With all the job losses predicted in the news, & social distancing measures will the likes of budget travel that we have come to expect still exist? Surely there will be less flights, less business travel & costs will be higher?

[DBML]

Probably.

But then I heard on the news that the barriers of not enough gates etc will allow for more start-ups and fewer big airlines monopolising the industry, so eventually there will be more competition again.
It’ll take some time to get there though.

[Ifailed]

hopefully not. The vast majority of air travel is trivial, whether it's flying asparagus from Peru or going on a weekend break.

[Stellaris22]

I don't see how it can. Flights will have to have fewer passengers so prices will go up.

I'm in two minds. I haven't been on a plane for over a decade, so have little love be for the industry, it's an environmental nightmare.

My concern is for job losses for stewards etc. It is unfair that only wealthy people will be able to afford flights (probably) now, but considering the environmental impact I'm glad cheap flights will hopefully be a thing of the past.

Hopefully with the increased cost of flights people will reconsider if they really need that second or third holiday abroad of the year.

[The80sweregreat]

Five live today on the phone in were saying about some airlines being able to adapt (but not for a while ) but with less passengers and higher prices :(
It's an industry that will never be the same : not for years anyway.
'Staycations ' will be popular again : good for British tourist industries and some may fly to UK airports instead of driving. Still a big blow for them though.
I feel for the staff.

[Iamclearlyamug]

Difficult for those of us who work in a low paid industry but have partners abroad, where unfortunately neither party can move country due to caring responsibilities

[Wehttam]

Until there is a vaccine or cure then there is simply no chance. It’s terrible for those who will lose jobs ultimately, it’s terrible for those in the tourism’s industry. It will however be amazing for the environment with fewer planes in the sky, but then again if flights are half full and the demand is still there then perhaps more flights will be needed? Who knows.

[doobiedop]

Yes I have mixed feelings, agree environmentally it was bad & I was totally opposed to a 3rd runway.

However I'm uncomfortable that international travel will be just for the rich & for many holidays abroad were cheaper than UK holidays so that may be exacerbated.

Awful for the people who lose their jobs & so many European countries depend on UK tourists in certain areas.

[Lala241280]

It’s a disaster for the travel industry not just the airlines

[Smileyoriley]

I do feel sorry for the staff who will lose their jobs but glad for environmental reasons. I wont be flying to holiday destinations for a long time.

[HasaDigaEebowai]

Its a shame for those who lose their jobs but its actually a positive step for the world and the environment. Far better if people can only afford to go abroad occasionally rather than jumping on a plane at the drop of a hat. Even if it halves the amount of overseas holidays that's a really positive step forward.

I foresee far less business travel. We all knew it wasn't necessary much of the time and this situation has proved that.

[cornersteps]

Normal? No. A lot will recover but from a passenger point of view choice will be less, demand will be more and prices will rocket.

[Lala241280]

@HasaDigaEebowai

Your comments baffle me why would you wish the demise of an industry

[HasaDigaEebowai]

why would you wish the demise of an industry

I don't. I wish the reduction of unnecessary travel for the good of our planet and for our children's futures. I know people who jump on a plane five or six times a year for holidays (my DParents included). Its simply not sustainable. Reverting to a situation where overseas travel is an occasional luxury is necessary IMO.

[Muskeg]

No, I think once there is a vaccine, we will go back to how we were, jetting off abroad, on holidays, for work, etc. If any travel companies go bust, new ones will spring up to take their place. Might be more expensive for a while though.

[cornersteps]

If any travel companies go bust, new ones will spring up to take their place.

Lots of airlines already have gone bust. Nobody will be springing up to replace them for a very long time. You can't just start an airline overnight. Particularly in the current climate.

[Lala241280]

It’s those people who jump on a plane 5-6 times a year that keep me and my colleagues in a job.
It’s those people who keep tourism going in countries that rely on it
It’s a job I love and have done for 20 of years

[HasaDigaEebowai]

Even if people revert to lots of holidays abroad I don't think companies will be as willing to send people jetting off. This situation has shown us that online meetings do work. Why would companies spend the money if they don't need to.

[Stellaris22]

I'm with you hasadig, I also have parents who fly abroad for holiday 5-6 times a year. If increased prices makes people reconsider a flight then that's a good thing.

It is unfair when it means wealthy people won't be affected, but environmentally it would be a good thing.

[MabelMoo23]

I don’t think people realise how crucial to our economy aviation is,

Airlines collapsing is not a good thing

[The80sweregreat]

I know this thread is about the aviation industry!
But I was thinking that
the ferries and the channel tunnel will do a better trade when restrictions are lifted in France and Spain etc. That will be ages too I suppose , but if you don't mind driving over there , it will be a round it. I bet many will chose remote cottages or villas.
The tunnel is better for SD and ferries could have less passengers , but run a few more of them maybe?
Again, it's all about the costs. If you have to drive down to the tunnel from the north it all adds up and not everyone would want to drive abroad either.
Brexit will be a huge factor too ; again more costs and red tape involved doing it this way I suppose but there will be round ways of not flying.

[puffinandkoala]

Yesterday there was an article in the Times saying they'd do medical checks on everyone before you flew so you'd have to be there 4 hours before.

I agree with a pp that much air travel is trivial. I hope businesses have realised that at least 90% of their "essential" face to face meetings can take place via video conferencing and massively reduce flying around the world for one hour meetings (I would have thought they'd be looking to cut costs anyway).

Hopefully people will also stop taking small children on long haul holiday flights (as opposed to those to see family).

Before this blew up, we had floods and bush fires. We have to change our way of life. Yes people will lose their jobs in and connected with aviation. But new jobs will evolve as new industries evolve.

[puffinandkoala]

(and if we don't need as many hotels maybe they can be converted for residential use and we can stop building so many houses on green field sites).

[Cornettoninja]

@hasadigaeebowai fwiw iI agree with you.

The loss of jobs and impact on economy is awful on individual levels but the airline industry is awful environmentally.

It’s also very noticeable that there’s a reluctance to talk about how the spread of covid might not have been so far and fast if it weren’t for the extreme levels of travel which was likely unnecessary.

Travelling is an amazing experience but it’s also become seen as a right and made very easily accessible through flight. Maybe it will become the preserve of the rich with the rest of us only experiencing going abroad a handful of times in our lifetimes but I don’t think that’s a bad thing at all. It doesn’t mean no one will ever travel just less often.

[Kazzyhoward]

It will be dirt cheap at first. The tour operators generally don't own their aircraft - they're leased. The financiers/banks who own them will want them used and so will accept lower leasing costs just to get some income at all. Airports will be falling over themselves to get airlines to use them, so they can get the profit from duty free, shops, bars, cafes etc so will be willing to substantially reduce their usual charges for landing/handling etc. Fuel is dirt cheap at the moment due to the slump in demand. Hotels will likewise be offering stupidly low prices, just to get travellers into them again. So, at first, expect dirt cheap flights/holidays, but the numbers will be very low as passenger numbers will be very low.

After a several months/a few years, the airports, aircraft owners, hotels, etc will want to start making profit again so will push up their charges as soon as they see an increase in travellers. That's when the prices will sky-rocket - i.e. when demand increases.

[HasaDigaEebowai]

It’s those people who jump on a plane 5-6 times a year that keep me and my colleagues in a job

Which is fine Lala but if the world recognises how damaging an industry is then it has to change eventually. Its just the way things work. I know we are already seeing a big change in attitude amongst our friends which is due in part to the David Attenborough effect. This situation has potentially hastened along a change that was going to happen eventually anyway.

We have a high disposable income and so are prime targets for luxury overseas holidays but in recent times, even before the pandemic, people were starting to judge those who jet off at the drop of a hat rather than envy them due to increasing awareness of the environmental impact of what they were doing. We had certainly reduced our overseas travel significantly.