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How long until no deaths a day?

(22 Posts)
shamppoandtea Thu 30-Apr-20 17:55:16

How long do you think?

I wonder what the first day will be.

Guess the vaccine will have an an affect.

OP’s posts: |
loobyloo1234 Thu 30-Apr-20 17:57:17

3 months or so I would say if we keep the R below 1 now

palacegirl77 Thu 30-Apr-20 17:57:19

Years if ever. Not everyone will get a vaccine. It won't work in everyone. This thing is the new flu. Get used to it.

loobyloo1234 Thu 30-Apr-20 17:58:23

I was referring to the UK there. Other countries are at 0 now so hopefully we’ll get there too

JacobReesMogadishu Thu 30-Apr-20 17:59:04

I agree, possibly never.

NurseJaques Thu 30-Apr-20 17:59:14

It will be a long time and we won't know about it because the media will have lost interest before then... No one counts the daily flu deaths, or measles, sepsis, meningitis, cancer etc.

palacegirl77 Thu 30-Apr-20 18:00:25

Some countries are at zero because they stopped all travel and shut borders. How long can a country go on like that?

Doyoumind Thu 30-Apr-20 18:01:18

A long time. The countries that are at 0 will have further deaths. It won't be eradicated.

Ifailed Thu 30-Apr-20 18:03:16

There's been a jab for 'flu for 17 years, yet every year people die from it, I doubt if things will be different for Covid-19.

Firef1y72 Thu 30-Apr-20 18:08:57

honestly, next to never. Just as there are still deaths every day from/with countless other infections, CV19 is here to stay.

midgebabe Thu 30-Apr-20 18:09:20

It's very hard to eliminate viruses, smallpox is one that has gone and that took decades even with vaccination

But it's not impossible that it gets to a level where deaths per year may be in the tens , rather than the hundreds per day we are at now

So if we are on say 500 deaths per day now and it halves every 3 weeks that's

500 becomes 250, 125, 60, 30, 15, 8, 4, 2, 1 each stage takes 3 weeks, that's about 6 months

Of course since we will relax lockdown the R value will rise so the halving time will increase and it will take longer to get to 1 per day

TerrapinStation Thu 30-Apr-20 18:09:43

Thousands of people die in the UK from flu every year, there's no certainty that there will ever be a vaccination for Covid 19 and I very much doubt it will be erradicated.

timeforawine Thu 30-Apr-20 18:11:54

It'll be like the flu, here to stay, probably an annual vaccine but people will still die.

UpAndGoing Thu 30-Apr-20 18:31:56

I think 3 months is the average amount of time.

zippyswife Thu 30-Apr-20 18:33:03

3 months? I love the positivity but I think more like 3-5 years and only if there’s a vaccine and it doesn’t mutate.

2outof3Mightbebad Thu 30-Apr-20 18:33:20

Years potentially.

Eeyoresstickhouse Thu 30-Apr-20 18:34:14

Never. Sorry but I think its true! We have flu deaths every single year. Even with a vaccine you will still have deaths, you will still have this virus around as more people are born they are not immune. If the virus mutates we may all have no immunity and the whole thing starts again.

handbagsatdawn33 Thu 30-Apr-20 18:34:30

Flu mutates every year, so the vaccine changes every year.

Don't know why it's called covid19, but it could change to
covid20/21/22 etc

ElaineMarieBenes Thu 30-Apr-20 18:35:06

Bubonic plague (ok not a virus) has been around since the 1300s and about there are still about 100 deaths a year worldwide

TheCountessofFitzdotterel Thu 30-Apr-20 18:37:30

Depends how well we get on with treatments, as well as the vaccine. It's not impossible we will stop it killing people in the future, we just don't know yet.

helpfulperson Thu 30-Apr-20 18:53:58

I think it's here to stay. There won't be deaths every day but like measles, flu, chicken pox etc there will be deaths every year.

ViciousJackdaw Thu 30-Apr-20 19:45:16

Don't know why it's called covid19

The 'Covid' is short for 'coronavirus disease' and the '19' refers to 2019, when this strain was first detected. So you're spot on, we could very well have 20, 21 and so on.

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