Daily numbers, graphs, analysis thread 7

[Barracker]

Welcome to thread 7 of the daily updates.

Resource links:
Worldometer UK page
Financial Times Daily updates and graphs
HSJ Coronavirus updates
Johns Hopkins Coronavirus Resource Centre
NHS England stats, including breakdown by Hospital Trust
Covidly.com to filter graphs using selected data filters
ONS statistics for CV related deaths outside hospitals, released weekly each Tuesday

Thank you to all contributors for their factual, data driven, and civil discussions.

[Sosounhappy]

Thank you

[Derbygerbil]

Thanks Barracker

[Puzzledandpissedoff]

Thanks, Barracker - good to have somewhere to come for some common sense

[DivGirl]

I mostly just lurk but I love these threads. Hopefully this one can stay firmly on the stats.

[GrumpySausage]

Thanks for starting a new one. I'm a constant lurker.

[BakedCam]

Another lurker.

But thanks to all who contribute. I have learned so much.

[RigaBalsam]

Thanks

[NeurotrashWarrior]

Thank you Barracker and all the very highly skilled contributors.

[SophocIestheFox]

Those stats by Chris Giles on the true number of excess deaths towards the end of the last thread were a bit sobering.

[NewAccountForCorona]

Thank you Barracker.

And special thanks to BigChoc and ShootsFruit (among others) who seem to manage to answer most of my questions before I even ask them.

[Baaaahhhhh]

.

[Bufferingkisses]

Thank you

[mac12]

Thank you, v useful threads

[peoplepleaser1]

Thank you for this thread.

[ShootsFruitAndLeaves]

Shiny new thread.

Regarding supporting data, here are the sources I have found:

Care home residents:

www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/birthsdeathsandmarriages/ageing/articles/changesintheolderresidentcarehomepopulationbetween2001and2011/2014-08-01
www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/housing/articles/2011censusanalysiswhatdoesthe2011censustellusaboutpeoplelivingincommunalestablishments/2015-02-11

Constant (in numbers) between 2011 and 2011. No more recent estimate. England & Wales.

2011 actuals here: www.nomisweb.co.uk/census/2011/ks405uk

See 'csv' for 'type of area' local authorities :district/unitary at bottom left

Population by age and Local Authority

www.ons.gov.uk/file?uri=%2fpeoplepopulationandcommunity%2fpopulationandmigration%2fpopulationestimates%2fdatasets%2fpopulationestimatesforukenglandandwalesscotlandandnorthernireland%2fmid20182019laboundaries/ukmidyearestimates20182019ladcodes.xls
2018 estimates using 2019 (latest) LA boundaries. 1 year age boundaries
www.ons.gov.uk/file?uri=%2fpeoplepopulationandcommunity%2fpopulationandmigration%2fpopulationprojections%2fdatasets%2flocalauthoritiesinenglandtable2%2f2018basedprincipal2019geographies/table218032020135638.xls 2018 to 2043 estimates using 2019 (latest) LA boundaries. 5 year age boundaries. England & Wales

2018 to 2043 estimates using 2019 boundaries. 1 year age boundaries. England & Wales. Both sexes. Best source of age data www.ons.gov.uk/file?uri=%2fpeoplepopulationandcommunity%2fpopulationandmigration%2fpopulationprojections%2fdatasets%2flocalauthoritiesinenglandz1%2f2018basedprincipal2019geographies/2018snpppopulation18032020135308.zip

Ethnicity:
2016 estimates (latest available) of population by ethnicity (groups: white British, other white, mixed, Asian, black, other) www.ons.gov.uk/file?uri=%2fpeoplepopulationandcommunity%2fpopulationandmigration%2fpopulationprojections%2fdatasets%2flocalauthoritiesinenglandz1%2f2018basedprincipal2019geographies/2018snpppopulation18032020135308.zip

No more recent or more granular (Pakistani vs Indian e.g.) estimates

Pre-2019 boundaries, which as far as I can see involved directly combining (no mixing) smaller LAs in Dorset & Suffolk

2011 Census data by Local Authority

www.ons.gov.uk/file?uri=/peoplepopulationandcommunity/populationandmigration/populationestimates/datasets/2011censuskeystatisticsforlocalauthoritiesinenglandandwales/r21ewrttableks201ewladv1_tcm77-290595.xls


More granular, so can be used with 2016 estimates to estimate the extent to which 'Asian' might be 'Pakistani' or 'Indian' in a given authority

[LilMissRe]

Thank you!

[TheCountessofFitzdotterel]

Thank you!

[SquirtleSquad]

Thanks for new thread and for all contributions to this.

[BeNiceYouCunts]

What is the current reported total deaths relating to COVID outside of hospital? I find the ONS data a minefield to understand.

[EricaNernie]

Thank you

[itsgettingweird]

Hi all. Just jumping on ready to catch up later with all your fantastic information.

[Madhairday]

Thank you from another lurker. Really appreciate this thread.

[ShootsFruitAndLeaves]

Those stats by Chris Giles on the true number of excess deaths towards the end of the last thread were a bit sobering.

He should be here, not hanging round with the riff-raff on Twitter, then he might make more accurate posts...

The data mostly being referred to are the 'weekly registrations'. They are the normal numbers published by the ONS for years, BUT they aren't that good when we're trying to find out what is happening during viral growth and decay. He says

"Data is for registrations of deaths on average happening by April 13, when equivalent hospital number was 13,423"

This is not the right way to do this.

Each death has the following data:

• date of death
  
• venue of death (care home, hospital)
  
• location of usual residence (e.g., for someone who is hit by a car in Devon, helicoptered to hospital Bristol, dies there), but was on holiday from Hillingdon, this is 'Hillingdon'
  
• date of registration
  
• registry office - could be anywhere, but probably the place of death
  
• place of death (Bristol hospital here)
  
  There are therefore two key dates:
  
  
• date of death
  
• date of registration, which is likely to be within a week of death but AVERAGES 6 months in cases where a post-mortem and inquest is conducted.
  
  Now we know that not only is there a delay to registration of death, but that the LENGTH of this delay varies according to the characteristics of the death, specifically the location (London & SE slowest), and the type of death (doctor-certified or not).
  
  www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/birthsdeathsandmarriages/deaths/articles/impactofregistrationdelaysonmortalitystatisticsinenglandandwales/2018
  
  In addition, we get delays of registrations over Christmas, New Year, Easter, etc. so that while there is likely an effect of people 'holding out' for Christmas and dying shortly after, there's also an administrative backlog resulting in outsized death figures in the New Year, which aren't 'true', but merely deaths pushed from one week to another.
  
  So when Mr. Giles is referring to the 'average date of death', this is not a meaningful figure, in that 'a care home death in SE England' will be registered after 'a hospital death in SE England', and then 'a hospital death in NE England' will be faster still.
  
  So what you will be doing is mixing, say hospital deaths in London from 13 April with care home deaths in London from 10 April with hospital deaths in NE England from 15 April and care home deaths in NE England from 12 April, and so on.
  
  Which on a time-sensitive basis is not very useful at all.
  
  It makes more sense to look at the 'Date of Death' (which are not in the main release but in the companion LA-based release), but here you have to project forward based on the characteristics of death, so for example where you have 1000 deaths in hospital in NE England recorded as dying 11-17 April and registered by 25 April, then you can estimate that the total number of deaths in hospital between 11-17 April in NE England will turn out to be a number, say, 10% larger than that, while the number of deaths in hospital in London might be 15% higher than those so far reported and in care homes in London 20% higher and so on.
  
  Only if you have a meaningful time period, i.e. a calendar week of deaths, are your numbers meaningful. Talking about excess deaths in the context of an annual average of a numerical week over period 2015-2019 doesn't make much sense either when Easter will be messing with the data.
  
  The headline '22,351' figure doesn't represent the number of people that died in the week 11-17 April

[GreyGardens88]

Stats for today?

[myrtleWilson]

Change to NHS daily death stats highlighted today

From Tuesday 28 April, NHS England and NHS Improvement started to report the number of patient deaths where there has been no COVID-19 positive test result, but where COVID-19 is documented as a direct or underlying cause of death on part 1 or part 2 of the death certification process. This change has been introduced for deaths that occurred on 24th April and subsequently and is shown separately in the region data table only. When making comparisons over time these figures should not be included
Interpretation of the figures should take into account the fact that totals by date of death are likely to be updated in future releases for more recent dates. For example, a positive result for COVID-19 may occur days after confirmation of death. Cases are only included in the data when the positive COVID-19 test result is received, or death certificate confirmed with COVID-19 mentioned. This results in a lag between a given date of death and exhaustive daily death figures for that day

link here www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/