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At least 2.6 million NY state residents have been infected

(6 Posts)
Mumlove5 Thu 23-Apr-20 18:09:49

More than 20 percent of people tested for virus antibodies in N.Y.C. tested positive.

About 21 percent of roughly 1,300 people in New York City who were tested for coronavirus antibodies this week tested positive, Gov. Andrew M. Cuomo said on Thursday.

The results come from a state program that randomly tested 3,000 supermarket customers across New York State. Nearly 14 percent of those tests came back positive, Mr. Cuomo said.

If those numbers translate to the true incidence of coronavirus, they would mean that more than 1.7 million people in New York City, and more than 2.6 million people statewide, have already been infected.

These numbers are far greater than the 250,000 confirmed cases of the virus itself that the state has recorded.

They would also mean that the fatality rate from the virus is relatively low — about 0.5 percent, Mr. Cuomo said.

Mr. Cuomo declined to speculate further, however, on what the preliminary data might mean. He said their main use would be as a baseline to track changes in the infection rate.

Supermarket customers do not constitute a random sample of the population. On one hand, they are out in public and spending time in stores, which could make them more likely to be exposed to the virus.

On the other hand, they are presumably not actively sick, or living in nursing homes, where the virus has taken a heavy toll. And of course, no one who was killed by the virus was tested.

“What does it mean? I don’t know,” Mr. Cuomo said. “These are people who were out and about shopping. They were not people who were in their homes, they were not people who were isolated, they were not people who were quarantined.”

Mr. Cuomo also released the state’s daily numbers of deaths and hospitalizations:

Deaths are falling: 438 deaths were reported on Thursday, down from 474 reported Wednesday. The number of deaths during the first four days of this week is down 33 percent from the first four days of last week. New York State’s death toll is now 15,740.

New hospital admissions remain flat: The number of virus patients entering hospitals has stayed around 1,350 per day for the last three days. That is down from around 2,000 per day last week.

OP’s posts: |
Mumlove5 Thu 23-Apr-20 19:22:14

Reassuring news that this virus is not as deadly as people think.

More studies will continue to come out.

OP’s posts: |
Keepdistance Thu 23-Apr-20 19:36:49

It does seem exceptionally high considering elsewhere which has been 2.5% to 5%.
However ny is tower blocks etc so lift buttons etc.

Still a long way from herd immunity. Will be interesting to see their results when the cases are all closed.

Argee people out shopping are likely the young healthy.
But it goes to show the need for masks if that many have had it asymptomatically

Lindy2 Thu 23-Apr-20 19:39:16

Very interesting. That actually sounds quite good news. I am very interested in seeing the results when the uk antibody testing starts.

yogz1976 Thu 23-Apr-20 21:33:39

Has a specific antibody been identified? How do we know the antibodies are being produced as a result of sars-cov-2 infection, and not because of some other viral infection such as common cold or flu?

Keepdistance Thu 23-Apr-20 22:05:48

I think the gov are spinning a line on the antibody tests as so many other countries are using the. A firm in the uk was selling them about a month ago

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