Rise of Infection Rates

[Parques]

Can I ask a really stupid question as I can't seem to find the answer? Although we've been in lockdown since Monday 23rd March, why are current infection rates still so high? How are these people still becoming infected in such alarming numbers? Especially since we have been told the incubation period is 14 days and he vast majority of the population have been following government advice on isolation/social distancing etc.? I am genuinely perplexed. Thank you.

[dementedpixie]

Because lots of people are still working. Lots of people arent social distancing.

[Parques]

Yes, but surely not enough to warrant the thousands of daily new infections?

[RigaBalsam]

Don't forget these are hospital cases. So could have not had symptoms for a week then two weeks to be hospitalslised.

Maybe longer and as pp said people are still working.

[Annarosez]

Hi OP,

Sometimes people are in hospital for 3-4 weeks before they die (or recover) and before that they might have been ill for a week or two, having caught it a further 2-10 days before that so some of the people dying now may have even caught it 6-7 weeks ago. Others may have had it for a shorter time before dying and perhaps picked it up from work or the supermarket etc.

[Daffodil101]

But the OP is talking about new infections.

The o my people I know who’ve got it recently contracted it at work.

[Bedraggledmumoftwo]

Testing surely
We aren't testing people until they end up in n hospital. Or get tested due to their role. Doesnt mean there are loads of new cases. Just that those new cases didn't get tested till now.

[Bedraggledmumoftwo]

New diagnoses being reported doesnt mean new infections. Just people that havent been tested until now.

[Crunchymum]

Incubation is 2 weeks,

So if you do get CV you have 2 weeks of no symptoms then you have 2 weeks of being ill but managing at home then unfortunately you need to go to hospital 1 week on a ward then you get really Ill and need ventilating 2 weeks in ITU then you die.

So that is 7 weeks from start to end.

That shit started long before lock down!

[Grandmi]

Crunchymum...definitely not and you are feeding peoples worries and fears !! I actually know six people who have tested positive and have been hospitalised without going to ITU !!

[buttermilkwaffles]

For the vast majority of people, incubation is around 5 to 6 days, for a very small number it can be up to 2 weeks and for an even smaller number longer than that.

An increase in identified infections is likely to be due to increase in testing.

[Titsywoo]

A friend came down with it recently and the only place he has been is the supermarket.

[Crunchymum]

I'm just explaining why there is still such a high death rate. Its because it can take some time to be fatal.

[Grandmi]

They are all home and resting but still feeling exhausted .

[Crunchymum]

CAVEAT

what I posted is a maximum timeframe though

[SquishySquirmy]

The number of positive tests is not a true representation of how many people are infected.

Even if the actual number of new infections is falling, if you test more people you will find more cases.
New infections will be people admitted to hospital (who likely became infected at least a few weeks ago) and symptomatic key workers who qualify for testing. The latter group will be growing because they are testing more key workers than they were before.

It is difficult to get a true picture from the numbers, and is also hard to compare between countries - those who were quick off the mark with mass testing looked worse than the countries who hardly tested anyone. But they weren't.

Likewise if you compared our latest death rates to France's you would think we are doing better (due to what the daily figures include) But we almost certainly aren't.

[SquishySquirmy]

I get what you are trying to say crunchymum. It's the maximum timeframe for the few who do die, not the prognosis for everyone who becomes ill!
Hence there is a lag between the actual date of infection and the date when that infection is detected and then usually another lag before it becomes fatal (in those instances when it is fatal).
These times vary, however I think most new positive cases will have been infected after lockdown.

[Rebootingagain]

@Crunchymum

Loadof scaremongering bullshit

I tested positive, and so have “had it”

I Only got tested because I was admitted to hospital with something else.

Test figures are bollocks unless everyone is tested and that won’t ever Happen

[Rebootingagain]

No symptoms whatsoever

[greenlynx]

I actually wondered it as well. All these new cases became infected after 23 March:5-7 days before symptoms starts, then deterioration in 9th-10th day of illness, then 1-2 days for testing results at the hospital. So they all got virus after lockdown was introduced. We need to know how it happened. If it’s happening at work, it means that workers are not properly protected so the government needs to address this.

[Chloemol]

Because we are testing more. It’s always been known that there are many infected outside of hospitals. anow testing being done on key workers across the board there is bound to be a rise in numbers

[ToffeeYoghurt]

Everything PP have already said. Also, we have 15,000 people arriving daily at our airports. Some countries have closed their borders to non essential flights or impose quarantine on new arrivals. We haven't.

[VivaLeBeaver]

There’s an awful lot of non essential workers still working.

After all the guidelines say work from HoM if you can but if you can’t then go to work but try and socially distance.

I saw the parish council employed village handy man is still at work cutting the grass. The window cleaner is still cleaning windows. Hopefully they can socially distance but they still have the risk of touching a surface with the virus on it. Or need to go and buy petrol and catch the virus?

People are still at work in big warehouses up and down the country. Most essential workers are still working. All at risk.

I don’t think we did such a strict lockdown as Italy and others.

[Namechanger20183110]

@vivalebeaver

Italy are still showing rising infections, which I was confused about but I think it's in areas that have
been relativelyy untouched compared to the northern regions. This is worrying as surely they've got a long while to go yet as so many areas of the country havent had been as affected yet but surely unless they strictly isolate those areas while allowing the north to open up, the virus still has plenty of population still to work through? The comfort with the UK at least is that we are so small, no area has "got away with it" in this first wave

[VivaLeBeaver]

It’s so worrying. I don’t think anything is going to change regarding rising infections until we get a vaccine.

[Melbs6]

They’re also ramping up the testing. More people being tested = more cases. The more accurate data to look at is deaths or hospital admissions. With the incubation period and then time for the patient to get severely unwell, this data takes time to show the effects of lockdown.