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The rise in 'non Covid related' deaths

(55 Posts)
Taddda Wed 15-Apr-20 10:53:56

This was mentioned on the news yesterday, we've been talking about it for a couple of weeks.

With people not going to the Gp's, A&E's for anything other than serious emergencies there's surely going to be a massive amount of undiagnosed illnesses.

Personally, I've had an appointment cancelled for (what they think is) abdominal adhesions related to EMCS, but some lumps/cysts were spotted during pregnancy/birth. No real emergency apart from pain and some occasional localised swelling, so cancelled for the foreseeable (after waiting 6 months for the appointment).

I understand my cancellation, but what of others being missed?

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Taddda Wed 15-Apr-20 11:18:50

Maybe this will be more apparent next year....

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Menora Wed 15-Apr-20 11:21:05

You won’t see this until next year or 2, because treatment and diagnosis was delayed. People who will die it is because of the delay so it won’t be immediately obvious unfortunately

Glittercandle Wed 15-Apr-20 11:30:44

My mum had a heart procedure cancelled.
It was booked in early March for early April, her consultant told her she must take the appointment and not move it even by a week as it could be months until rebooked and needs to have it - the hospital then cancelled it as they cancelled pre-planned surgery. DM has been told to go to A&E if she has any problems and the only chance of having the surgery soon is if she needs it as an emergency. She feels unwell and it’s putting a strain on her body but not so unwell she can present to A&E.
It’s a shit situation.

JackChaffinch Wed 15-Apr-20 11:37:30

That unkind meme about it being quiet at A&E because people are dealing with their booboos at home made me wonder about this. Where have all the heart attacks and strokes etc gone? People must still be having serious health emergencies.

Taddda Wed 15-Apr-20 11:58:24

It's people like @Glittercandle's Mum who are most at risk here (sorry). Having an essential surgery all of a sudden become non essential and just to phone an ambulance if their condition worsens-!?

A 6000 increase for last month alone, only 1 in 5 of those account for Covid related, so the other 80% are??

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iVampire Wed 15-Apr-20 12:02:35

The suspension of cancer screening, and the alterations to some forms of cancer treatments, could easily lead to thousands whose cancer prognosis is worse (including deadly) - probably spread over the next couple of years.

That’s assuming 2 week rule investigations go ahead. If some of those are suspended, then that’s even more deaths and sooner

BeetrootRocks Wed 15-Apr-20 12:05:26

There have been reports on the news about people dying of other things unnecessarily already, the one I saw focused on some children who had died, I think one was asthma.

There have been doctors interviewed reiterating that you should go to a and e etc if something is wrong.

So although more will come out in a year or two or is happening already, 3 weeks in.

I'll see if I can find an article.

BeetrootRocks Wed 15-Apr-20 12:07:48

Jackchaffinch if your friends post that maybe respond with this and see if they think those children are dead of 'booboos'.

EasterBuns Wed 15-Apr-20 12:15:11

ONS figures show 10,000 would normally die in March but 16,000 died this year. Roughly 3,600 of those were hospital confirmed covid present deaths. Then there are community deaths estimated to be 10% so only 3000 to 4000. That still leaves an extra 2,000. Surely we haven’t already lost that many to people not being treated for other conditions?

EasterBuns Wed 15-Apr-20 12:20:50

Sorry those figure were for one week, ending April 3rd.

Taddda Wed 15-Apr-20 12:23:42

Surely we haven’t already lost that many to people not being treated for other conditions?

Plus we're still not getting the figures right...hmm...

I think next month will see another increase, and so on-

They have to reopen the surgeries/screening surely?
(That link is frightening)

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Kljnmw3459 Wed 15-Apr-20 12:25:59

I'm really concerned about the delay to things such as cancer treatments etc.

FreyaB84 Wed 15-Apr-20 12:33:44

My Sister is a nurse in a children's hospital and this is something that's really worrying her. She was saying that they've seen a huge decrease in children coming in across the board.

They were expecting a drop for things like road traffic accidents but not the drop in children being admitted for things like asthma attacks, appendicitis and meningitis. These things haven't just disappeared because coronavirus is about. So what's happening to these patients?

Redpurplegreen Wed 15-Apr-20 12:40:51

I really need an appointment with a consultant so I can get diagnosed and receive treatment for a serious condition my doctor believes that I have. (Also a condition which makes you vulnerable.)

But I’m not going to be able to for the foreseeable future and the condition I have could cause irreversible damage to my organs.

EasterBuns Wed 15-Apr-20 12:43:22

I do think people are being more aware of avoiding high risk activities so I would expect less broken legs etc.

Mamamia456 Wed 15-Apr-20 12:43:41

If you look at the NHS website it says that cancer screening is still being carried out and lifesaving operations are still going ahead. Routine operations are being delayed if there is no negative outcome after 10-12 weeks.

PanicOnTheStreets85 Wed 15-Apr-20 12:47:57

They were expecting a drop for things like road traffic accidents but not the drop in children being admitted for things like asthma attacks, appendicitis and meningitis. These things haven't just disappeared because coronavirus is about.

Well I could imagine the lockdown might reduce the amount of viral meningitis as well as Covid, although I'm no expert. I suppose with asthma people are worried that if they go to hospital they'll pick up the virus so are taking their chances at home, which is really worrying.

midgebabe Wed 15-Apr-20 12:47:56

I think that many of the excess will actually be COVID when it's all untangled.

I am not surprised, the whole point of the lockdown , which was probably too late , is that once the NHS gets overwhelmed everything suffers , and if they are trying to run many thousands more beds, that's beyond what the staff could reasonably expect to cope with

Ticklemeelmo Wed 15-Apr-20 12:49:27

I had a letter from my GP that my smear test is due, however when I called to book it in they said smear tests were currently suspended. So they aren't doing all cancer screening.

ComtesseDeSpair Wed 15-Apr-20 12:49:53

A friend couldn’t get a GP appointment for a suspected UTI, which could likely have been easily treated with antibiotics. As a result she developed a kidney infection a couple of weeks later and had to be hospitalised. Greater cost, taking up a bed etc. At some point there will need to be a review of the efficiencies of this kind of thing.

Greendayz Wed 15-Apr-20 12:50:51

You would expect a reduction in traffic accidents, and possibly also other infectious diseases such as meningitis, asthma (less pollution and people being more careful about taking their medication) and male on male violence (mostly occurs outside the home).

But the increase of 6000 of which only 3600 were recorded as Coronovirus leaves a lot of extra deaths not explained (in addition to whatever number cancels out the reduction from road accidents, etc). It's not delays to treatment for cancer or delayed diagnosis, as those will take longer to cause deaths. So it's either Coronovirus deaths not identified as such, or other deaths due to not seeking treatment for things such as heart attacks, or suicides.

iVampire Wed 15-Apr-20 12:56:54

“ If you look at the NHS website it says that cancer screening is still being carried out“

You must have been looking at an outdated page, Screening programmes have been paused in all the home nations (and this has been reported on by the main stream media),

It is only symptomatic 2WW referrals and the most urgent/important or low risk/high benefit cancers treatments that are continuing.

Fortunately my treatment falls into that category and my treatment is unaffected to date. But not everyone is that lucky

Fishlegs Wed 15-Apr-20 12:59:50

We know that air pollution is implicated in conditions like asthma, heart attacks and strokes, so there may be fewer people suffering with these due to the huge improvement in air quality, but I’m sure there are worrying numbers who are scared to attend A&E due to Coronavirus.

All of this, and the picture of the numbers of deaths due or not due to Coronavirus is massively unclear due to the lack of quality testing available.

HoffiCoffi13 Wed 15-Apr-20 13:05:17

It is worrying.
I assume cancellations etc must be area dependent. I spoke to my GP about an issue on Monday, was referred to the hospital for further investigation, the hospital phoned me yesterday and I had my appointment this morning. The hospital was extremely quiet (community hospital with no a&e or ICU), tests were carried out within 10 mins and I was told results will be communicated to me much quicker than ‘normal’.

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