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I wonder what the real death toll is

(22 Posts)
ACupOfTeaSolvesEverything Mon 13-Apr-20 17:12:31

Just that really. The very sad figure of 11,329 deaths is only those who have died in hospital having tested positive for covid 19. What about those who die from it without being tested? And those who die from it but not in hospital?
Obviously there’s also all the other related deaths (not gone to A&E, domestic violence, suicide etc) but directly due to cv19 our numbers must be well out.

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CaptainMyCaptain Mon 13-Apr-20 17:16:15

Surely all deaths have to be registered with a reason for death. We don't know how many have had it and recovered though.

ACupOfTeaSolvesEverything Mon 13-Apr-20 17:18:02

But if they’ve died from covid yet not been tested they are not included in the official numbers. Deaths outside of hospitals are also not included I believe

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maryberrystalentlesstwin Mon 13-Apr-20 17:18:07

Equally we'll never know how many died because of it rather than died with it.

CaptainMyCaptain Mon 13-Apr-20 17:18:29

On the briefing just now Chris Whitty said they are giving the deaths out of hospital but the data comes in some days later.

CaptainMyCaptain Mon 13-Apr-20 17:20:23

He has also mentioned deaths from other causes eg not being treated in hospital for other conditions.

ACupOfTeaSolvesEverything Mon 13-Apr-20 17:22:43

Just watching that, really like Chris Witty

OP’s posts: |
CaptainMyCaptain Mon 13-Apr-20 17:23:23

They are actually discussing this whole question now so, if you aren't watching, I'd recommend getting it on catch up.

CaptainMyCaptain Mon 13-Apr-20 17:23:59

Cross Post. He is very good at giving clear explanations.

PlanDeRaccordement Mon 13-Apr-20 17:27:24

For England and Wales, the ONS collects deaths outside the hospital and deaths that are suspected Covid (no test) and then publishes the total weekly.

ACupOfTeaSolvesEverything Mon 13-Apr-20 17:29:32

For England and Wales, the ONS collects deaths outside the hospital and deaths that are suspected Covid (no test) and then publishes the total weekly.

Is that then added into the “official count”? Or does it remain a separate figure?

OP’s posts: |
Zofloramummy Mon 13-Apr-20 17:30:16

It remains a separate figure

bigchris Mon 13-Apr-20 17:30:46

It will be considerably higher

Plus many death certificates are saying 'pneumonia (probable covid-19)' because of the lack of testing

MrsTerryPratchett Mon 13-Apr-20 17:31:47

Equally we'll never know how many died because of it rather than died with it.

When the dust has settled statisticians will work it out. We won't know until all the corrected data is analysed.

Zofloramummy Mon 13-Apr-20 17:34:13

The latest publication from ONS up to the end of March seems to be indicating over 600 deaths in 2 weeks.

NewChapter11 Mon 13-Apr-20 17:35:33

According to EU data, almost half of deaths related to CV take place in care homes. This figure will be swept under the carpet no doubt.

Seriouslyastounded Mon 13-Apr-20 17:38:14

Why would they be swept under the carpet🙄

Bedroomdilemma Mon 13-Apr-20 17:39:54

www.theguardian.com/world/2020/apr/13/half-of-coronavirus-deaths-happen-in-care-homes-data-from-eu-suggests
It is likely that the UK numbers are massively understated. 600 over 2 weeks would be a much smaller percentage than other countries, which seems unlikely. What did Chris Whitty say about it?

zafferana Mon 13-Apr-20 17:41:51

Yes, I agree OP. Not only the real death rate, but the real infection rate would be good. You only get tested if you end up in hospital and your death is only recorded as due to Covid-19 if you die in an NHS hospital. So what are the real figures? Will we ever know? I'm guessing that when all this is over there will be some estimates, but right now we're in the dark. We're trying to control something when precisely no one has any idea how widespread it is.

Frouby Mon 13-Apr-20 17:42:51

The care home figures are misleading I think.

Fil was in hospital for 4 days with a positive covid 19 result. He was then discharged to a nursing home where he died Sunday morning. His death certificate will state Covid 19. But presumably won't be included in hospital figures as died in a nursing home. Even though he was initially treated in hospital.

So moving patients to a nursing home of they expect them to die (even though we weren't told they expected him to die) would keep the hospital figures lower, and nursing homes higher.

BunsyGirl Mon 13-Apr-20 17:45:31

You will be able to get the total death figures for April on the ONS webpage. The figures for March showed that slightly less people died in March 2020 than they did in March 2019. Once we have the figures for April, we will have a slightly better idea of just how bad this situation is.

lljkk Mon 13-Apr-20 18:50:46

thanks for mentioning the ONS. The 'excess' death counts will be apparent. I didn't realise ONS updated so quickly. We just had a very mild flu season so seasonal deaths are down AFAIK.

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