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To think the numbers aren’t accurate If

(22 Posts)
AngeloftheSnorth Mon 13-Apr-20 09:08:00

If they only include hospital deaths of people tested.

All the people I know who have died from it have been in residential care and haven’t been tested, although the symptoms are clear.

It just feels wrong somehow that they aren’t counted. As though their early deaths cared for by care staff, overworked stressed but still amazing, often without family close aren’t as recognised as the deaths in hospital.

Have I got this wrong though? Are all deaths which are likely to be from COVID19 counted or are the stats just hospital ones? I’m sure Spain and Italy were both, I feel like I just don’t know enough

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Beebityboo Mon 13-Apr-20 09:14:51

At the care home I worked at until very recently we have lost eight residents. All died of Covid at the home so won't be counted in the figures, the three that are currently in hospital (and not expected to recover) will be included. The numbers are certainly much higher than is being admitted as I assume this scenario is playing out in care homes/nursing homes throughout the country. It's completely devastating.

UsedUpUsername Mon 13-Apr-20 09:16:41

Would those who died at home be included in updated figures? France had a day like this where they caught up on previous deaths leading to a spike in the death toll (but not really)

PlanDeRaccordement Mon 13-Apr-20 09:28:24

This is what the gov.uk page says
“Notes on deaths figures
The figures on deaths relate in almost all cases to patients who have died in hospital and who have tested positive for COVID-19. Slight differences in reporting in devolved administrations may mean that they include a small number of deaths outside hospital. The figures are compiled from validated data provided by NHS England and Improvement, Health Protection Scotland, Public Health Wales and the Public Health Agency (Northern Ireland).

These figures do not include deaths outside hospital, such as those in care homes, except as indicated above. This approach allows us to compile deaths data on a daily basis using up-to-date figures. The data includes confirmed cases reported as at 5pm the previous day. The amount of time between occurrence of death and reporting in these figures may vary slightly and in some cases could be a few days, so figures at 5pm may not include all deaths for that day.

In addition to these figures, the Office for National Statistics (ONS) publishes weekly counts of deaths in which COVID-19 was mentioned on the death certificate. This publication is issued every Tuesday, starting on 31 March. It includes cases outside hospital and also some cases where COVID-19 is suspected but no test has taken place. ONS data will initially cover England and Wales only and will report on deaths registered up to 11 days before publication, so up to 20 March for their first release.”
www.gov.uk/guidance/coronavirus-covid-19-information-for-the-public

dementedpixie Mon 13-Apr-20 09:30:30

Scotland is publishing its ONS figures on a Wednesday

twinnywinny14 Mon 13-Apr-20 09:32:27

ONS numbers get added from time to time to the overall total x

Baaaahhhhh Mon 13-Apr-20 09:38:56

All deaths are included in the weekly ONS figures out on Tuesday's. They include everyone who has died of everything, anywhere, and are currently reporting on those whose death certificates include

Baaaahhhhh Mon 13-Apr-20 09:39:44

Covid either as a primary or secondary cause.

AngeloftheSnorth Mon 13-Apr-20 09:55:35

Well it’ll be interesting tomorrow/Wednesday

I just think there’d be such an even greater outcry if the residential care home and at home deaths were included. There’s shock anyway but it isn’t counting a quarter? half?

I think as well the care home staff don’t have the same access to PPE as hospital staff (from what hospital/NHS friends have said going into care homes)

I don’t like the war analogy but it’s like a lot of media coverage of the western front (hospitals) and very little of the eastern (care and community) but there’s so much tragedy in the east. It seems odd to be talking about lifting lockdown when so many are dying and not being reported.

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AngeloftheSnorth Tue 14-Apr-20 11:04:01

16,387 Over 2,000 more than the NHS figures and I think that’s without Scotland or NI

The highest death rate/week since records began

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AngeloftheSnorth Tue 14-Apr-20 11:06:14

We are very nearly at Italy Spain levels and we have t peaked yet - or at least not here in this area sad

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milienhaus Tue 14-Apr-20 11:07:43

That’s total deaths in the week to 3 April, only c3500 were COVID deaths. 11 days old of course.

Rebelwithallthecause Tue 14-Apr-20 11:14:16

News today is the release of ONS overall deaths w/e 3rd April which is 16000

Since the ONS have been recording weekly overall deaths (2005 onwards) the average for this week is 10000 and reducing each week onwards

This is a scary number. A 60% increase on deaths

They have gone through all death certificates and over 4000 in that week mention COVID.

Therefore there’s around 2000 excess deaths not relating to COVID and that’s a scary number as the ONS is showing that there could be a related effect of people who need urgent help not getting it and for example a higher rate of people dying from heart attacks

Rebelwithallthecause Tue 14-Apr-20 11:15:28

The above is what the statistician from the ONS said on BBC just now

PicsInRed Tue 14-Apr-20 11:23:18

If they aren't including deaths outside hospital, then that is a scandal.

dementedpixie Tue 14-Apr-20 11:25:26

They are collating those deaths on a weekly basis so they are only getting published once a week

milienhaus Tue 14-Apr-20 11:25:41

The daily deaths figures are only for hospital patients which (IMO) they make pretty clear. Care home and home deaths are on top of this.

LostInSaigon Tue 14-Apr-20 11:28:22

In Italy and Spain 50% of deaths have been at care homes for the ederly. So if thats the case in the UK, than the death rate could be twice as high as what we are being led to believe by the official figures.

NotEverythingIsBlackandwhite Tue 14-Apr-20 11:35:22

What about the deaths in care homes where doctors are not putting Covid-19 on Death Certificates and yet the deceased are suspected of having it?

CuriousaboutSamphire Tue 14-Apr-20 11:36:34

As was reiterated yesterday, hospital figures are used by all countries, we are in line with the global measures, and the ONS data included all other deaths, all causes.

There will be more details as time passes and they can do more meaningful comparisons with previous data. We don't have it yet as there isn't much to say that would be meaningful.

We live in such an immediate world, with social media etc, that many seem to have forgotten that we live in real time and science, and everything else, has to be worked on...

Baaaahhhhh Tue 14-Apr-20 11:38:43

ONS stats out today, majority of deaths still in hospital up to April 3rd.

CuriousaboutSamphire Tue 14-Apr-20 11:40:03

As with any illness the gp signing the death certificate puts what best fits the situation. They have always done this, it's their job!

And the ONS data will show any increase in 'excess mortality rates'

We will know, are starting to know, it is all in the public domain.

Thanks for posting the ONS data, I hadn't looked yet!

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