Is it just a matter of time until infection?

[PurpleThistles84]

My family and I have been observing lockdown since two weeks before it even began. I know it’s daft but it only really hit me yesterday that it’s really a matter of time until we get it, isn’t it? I went into lockdown with the attitude of, we stay in and we won’t get it, but we will really won’t we? Just a case of later rather than sooner. I am posting because I guess I’m hoping someone will tell me I’m wrong?

Just to say, we are not in the vulnerable category, however I have had pneumonia twice and it was horrific so I am quite frightened about catching it.

[rc22]

I don't know. I'm just getting my head around the same thing. I suppose there are lots of possibilities. We may already have had it and been asymptomatic. We may get it soon and be asymptomatic. We may get mild symptoms or get more serious symptoms. There will be a proportion of the population who avoids getting it at all. Maybe we'll be one of those people. The uncertainty of it all is difficult so I think we need to take a day at a time. My mantra is "we're healthy now, we know what to do if we get it and we'll cross that bridge when we come to it."

[Standrewsschool]

I’ve wondered that also. Isn’t that the point of the lockdown, that instead of all the cases happening at once, they are spread out. The first peak is approaching in the next few days, but then there be more smaller peaks later.

[nicerainyweather]

If I'm both careful and lucky I'll avoid getting it during lockdown. I could continue that way for ages, as I work online. But as soon as schools re-open, DD will be infected and will take it home with her.

[Babdoc]

Nobody has a crystal ball, OP. If the lockdown is successful in getting the virus’s R value down below 1, then the epidemic will cease naturally through inability to spread.
The big unknown is what then happens when we unlock. The best case scenario is no more cases, game over. But the depressing possibility is that cases just start to rise again, as the remaining incubating cases or asymptomatic cases start to infect people again.
If that reaches a certain level, it may trigger a second lockdown so the hospitals don't get swamped again.
This could be a long haul, until we get a vaccine - which will be September at the absolute earliest if all the clinical trials are successful.

[Bellesavage]

Yes you will very likely get it, unless they keep us in lockdown until a vaccine, so for another year or more. The government haven't communicated this well as most are scared witless about contracting coronavirus, but that plays well with controlling people in lockdown.

[Knocksomesense]

This is it. We also have been isolating since about 10 days before lock down and are relieved we did. I just can't begin to work out what our next steps should be. Dh is taking it really very seriously and cautiously and it's clouding my judgement

[aladyofinderterminateage]

Yes. I think we will all get it right up until a vaccine is available AND administered to everyone who has not had it, or does not have immunity. How long is it going to take to work that out?
I was speaking to a friend who is in her 70s. She said she didn't think most people would catch it. She was taken aback when I said I thought everyone would get it eventually.
But she is a technophobe and never watches the news.

[helpfulperson]

I remember thinking that during the AID's pandemic, that we would just all end up getting it. But we learnt more about exact mechanisms of transfer and at became able to treat it so infectious people were less infectious.. Similar is likely to happen over time with this - we'll learn more about it, hopefully get a vaccine.

[Bagelsandbrie]

The lockdown isn’t to stop people getting it at all, it’s to stop people getting it all at once so the nhs isn’t overwhelmed, or before there’s a vaccine. I do think everyone will get it eventually.

[WoollyMollyMonkey]

I’ve been wondering that too. We didn’t all get swine flu, avian flu or sars when those were going around so maybe it could die out? I thought a vaccine won’t be ready for about 12 months. Then everyone will need testing before that to see who needs it.

[Laiste]

I thought the whole point of lock down was to flatten the curve and lengthen the timeline. ie same number going to catch it but stretch it out.

Unless lockdown isn't going to go on for ever so it's going to be waiting for us when we emerge. Isn't it?

Isn't that the point of the lockdown relax lockdown relax thing?

[Inkpaperstars]

I think yes, probably most of us will. But the later we get it the more chance of drugs being available to modify the impact.

It's mad isn't it? My mind keeps veering around...will we get it? Have I had it? We might not get it. Of course we'll get it, but when? At lest we'd get it out of the way. But no, we might die. Unless we've had it...

[FuzzyPuffling]

With a household of one shielding and one at risk person the idea of this if just awful.
"You're going to die anyway, but just hang on a bit and live a miserable, worried, locked down existence until then"

[Jellycatfox]

I thought of that today as well

And then I read that some people are testing positive again after having it, so that is not looking good for the immunity hypothesis.

[Firef1y72]

I'm more pragmatic than most people I know...
All this stay indoors and it'll be over quicker I keep reading is a load of bollocks. Of course we are all likely to get it at some point. Personally I would prefer to get it over and done with, but that's obviously still down to fate and less likely as I only leave the house a maximum of twice a day. (Once for exercise and 1-2xweek to get essentials from local shop. I don't go to supermarkets anyway, because I can't cope with the crowds and certainly wouldn't be able to cope standing in a queue for hours (autism).

The whole idea of this lockdown is to slow the rate we get it, not stop us actually getting it. If we really wanted to get it all over with quicker, then we would simply remove all restrictions and allow it to spread unchecked. But then people would die who didn't need to, due to lack of critical care beds, so we are trying to slow the rate of infection.

As an aside I am more worried about how many people are possibly being kept alive in intensive care when they wouldn't have if they had anything else.There does seem to be a touch of the idea of attempting to save lives at any cost, even those who normally would have been allowed to pass relatively peacefully.

[OuterMongolia]

My parents are super cautious about it (my dad would definitely be high risk) and are planning to continue to isolate themselves until there is a vaccine. But they're retired - most of us can't do that. So, yes, I am expecting to get it when lockdown ends and we go back to work / school.

[Laiste]

I admit i made the mistake of alluding to the 'well we're all going to get it eventually' mindset (which i've had from the start) to my DM yesterday.

I've never seen her so indignant. No. That's not how it's going to go. I didn't push it of course. But - out of interest - the facts are:

She's 82 (she lives with us) and she wanted her mates to still be able to come round for coffee once a week like usual. It's only their refusal which stopped it. She like to go out every day and sit on the bench near the shops. She keeps wandering out to the front garden to see if there's anyone to chat to. She wont use hand gel.

.... but no. Of course we're not all going to get it

[TheDailyCarbuncle]

The aim of the lockdown isn't to stop people from getting it, it's to stop people from getting it all at once. So yes, a lot more people will get it as the months go on. All of the really awful cases are being highlighted in the press as a way of scaring the shit out of people so they'll stay at home. The reality is, for every awful case there are many others where the sufferer had a really shit time of it but got through it at home, were a bit ropey for a few days then felt better, or had such mild symptoms they didn't even know they were sick. In terms of overall risk, the real danger to you personally is relatively low, even though it seems high because of how the story is being told.

That said, it's not at all guaranteed that you'll get it. A certain number of people will avoid infection just through sheer luck - they will never come into contact with an active infection until so many people are immune that they just won't get it. Basically, immune people act as a buffer, stopping the spread by failing to pass it on. That's what 'herd immunity' is about.

The problem with this virus is that it spreads so readily because we're not immune. It kills a very small proportion of people who get it. There is a risk, but there is also a risk in getting in a car, or going on a plane or just being in the world in general. If you stop your whole life indefinitely to avoid the risk you might as well ask yourself what the point in being healthy is at all. Alive but a prisoner is pointless.

[TheDailyCarbuncle]

As an aside I am more worried about how many people are possibly being kept alive in intensive care when they wouldn't have if they had anything else.There does seem to be a touch of the idea of attempting to save lives at any cost, even those who normally would have been allowed to pass relatively peacefully

I think this is a valid worry @Firef1y72 but from what I can see doctors are actually being given more power to make the right judgement call due to the pressure of the situation. Of course that's being spun in the press as doctors callously taking ventilators from old people but again that's to scare the shit out of people.

[Knobblybobbly]

@Inkpaperstars

My mind keeps veering around...will we get it? Have I had it? We might not get it. Of course we'll get it, but when? At lest we'd get it out of the way. But no, we might die. Unless we've had it...

This is me 85% of my waking day!

[nicerainyweather]

Is it best to get it from a small dose of the virus? Is it possible to get it and be immune, but minimise the infection?

[Egghead68]

I heard that around 60-80% of people will get it eventually, but not everyone.

[Zantedeschia]

I don't really understand about the viral load but it seems dentists/HCP died from it after really close contact with infected people. Whereas if you get it passing by someone, it is less?

I know of a couple who came back from Cheltenham and had no symptoms but tested positive. Possibly caught from someone out in the fresh air with a much lower viral load? As opposed to a seriously ill person, or in the case of the dentist, such close contact with mouth?

[eurochick]

The language is all about flattening the curve, not eradicating the disease. Most of us are going to get it, just not all at the same time. Very few people under 70 have anything to worry about. I do worry about the younger older people (around 70, like my own parents). For the older older people I know some have great quality of life, but thinking of my own two grand parents who lived to 90+ their quality of life in their final years were really poor and I have thought for some time I would want something to take me quickly rather than slowly deteriorate with dementia, etc. So I'm reasonably sanguine about it.