How is the peak predicted?

[Dilbertian]

From an article on the BBC website:

...we were expecting the surge to come in May, but Covid-19 has turned out to be more transmissible than predicted and the peak is coming much sooner.

How is the peak predicted? Is it possible to forecast how many people will be ill at any point in time?

[Bluntness100]

Are you not watching the press conf? Chris witty has just explained. I’m sure you can watch it on iplayer or catch up.

[midgebabe]

The peak is also affected by the lockdown and how well it's stuck to

Less restrictions probably makes it peak later

Because we are creating an artificial peak

[Dilbertian]

Less restrictions probably makes it peak later

But don't less restrictions mean that more people catch it sooner, so the curve steepens and the peak comes sooner?

[midgebabe]

I see what you mean but i am assuming ( and didn't say, sorry) the restrictions take the rate of infection below 1 so it starts to die out before it can infect everyone