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How is the peak predicted?

(5 Posts)
Dilbertian Tue 07-Apr-20 17:15:55

From an article on the BBC website:

...we were expecting the surge to come in May, but Covid-19 has turned out to be more transmissible than predicted and the peak is coming much sooner.

How is the peak predicted? Is it possible to forecast how many people will be ill at any point in time?

OP’s posts: |
Bluntness100 Tue 07-Apr-20 17:17:38

Are you not watching the press conf? Chris witty has just explained. I’m sure you can watch it on iplayer or catch up.

midgebabe Tue 07-Apr-20 17:26:00

The peak is also affected by the lockdown and how well it's stuck to

Less restrictions probably makes it peak later

Because we are creating an artificial peak

Dilbertian Tue 07-Apr-20 17:35:36

Less restrictions probably makes it peak later

But don't less restrictions mean that more people catch it sooner, so the curve steepens and the peak comes sooner?

OP’s posts: |
midgebabe Tue 07-Apr-20 17:39:13

I see what you mean but i am assuming ( and didn't say, sorry) the restrictions take the rate of infection below 1 so it starts to die out before it can infect everyone

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