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Uk coronavirus deaths predicted to be 66,000 the worst in Europe, 2nd worse in world.

(305 Posts)
HerstoryInTheMaking Tue 07-Apr-20 12:19:56

Why does this not surprise me. We were appalling slow to allow lockdown. Govt u-turn on herd immunity. Allowing Cheltenham and other events to go ahead. Those in charge need to be held accountable when this is over.

esjee Tue 07-Apr-20 12:23:06

Well there's long way to go yet. All those countries who locked gown early can't stay locked dkwn forever. Short of a vaccine, many more people will likely have to get this at some point.

Thinkinghappythoughts Tue 07-Apr-20 12:24:23

Interesting. It would be good to see that graph in more detail. How does Sweden fare in this model?

MigginsMrs Tue 07-Apr-20 12:25:04

It’d obviously be awful, but it’s one hell of a lot better than the 500k they were talking about if nothing was done. Horrific for all affected but if 99.9% of the population survive this I think that’s fairly good going.

GirlCalledJames Tue 07-Apr-20 12:30:40

@esjee Most people will have to catch it before the vaccine is available but the idea is that they catch it slowly.
Several countries who locked down earlier have now announced their strategies to go back to normal life.

CuriousaboutSamphire Tue 07-Apr-20 12:31:17

Mmmmm! I can think of a few reasons why much of that will turn out to be absurd.

Thinking of some African nations, some areas of India etc.

But also the modelling itself... we already know that no 2 countries are measuring CV the same way, so ALL models offering a comparison are, of necessity, flawed.

And a squillion and one other reasons.

This shit is bad enough as it is without adding more doomsday predictions to the mix

leckford Tue 07-Apr-20 12:32:51

Much less probably than China, few people believe their figures

Al1Langdownthecleghole Tue 07-Apr-20 12:33:28

I think the key part of that link are the words "more to follow"

mencken Tue 07-Apr-20 12:35:51

relative populations?

metro is a fuckwit millenial publication at the best of times.

pocketem Tue 07-Apr-20 12:37:40

@CuriousaboutSamphire "Thinking of some African nations, some areas of India etc."

Bit racist
India went into lockdown early rather than pursuing a herd immunity plan of deliberately trying to get 60% of its population infected with a disease with a 1-2% fatality rate. India has provided adequate PPE to its healthcare workers unlike here where my colleagues have had to beg local people and companies on Facebook to get masks to allow them to care for people. India has successfully isolated and eliminated SARS, swine flu, bird flu outbreaks through a robust public health approach, following WHO guidance which our "British Exceptionalism" experts like Jenny Harries scoff at and say is only for poor countries. Just a really colonional-era attitude to look on developing countries this way as if they have no experience in handling infectious disease epidemics, when we have handled ours so incompetently

HerstoryInTheMaking Tue 07-Apr-20 12:43:14


Your right, India have approached this much like other European countries by imposing an early lockdown.

No one in media is acknowledging how our govt went from saying Cheltenham and football matches were fine to saying you cant sunbathe in a park in less than a month. The incompetence is astonishing.

MigginsMrs Tue 07-Apr-20 12:50:08

Crufts and Cheltenham taking place was appalling

Rummikub Tue 07-Apr-20 12:53:36

And allowing 2000 Spanish football fans into Liverpool was lax.

esjee Tue 07-Apr-20 12:58:58

@GirlCalledJames yeah, the point is for how long. There's a long way to go yet, 12-18 months until there's a vaccine. We won't know which country has come out of it the worst until then.

Noname99 Tue 07-Apr-20 12:59:59

And yet 3 weeks after Cheltenham there is no spike or hot spot in deaths or cases in gloucestershire? How did 200,000 people come to a small town and party 24/7 for 4 days and not cause any rise at all in the cases or death rate ...... how did that happened?

NotEverythingIsBlackandwhite Tue 07-Apr-20 13:02:50

India's figures are likely to be inaccurate. They have low levels of testing and spend, as a proportion of their GDP, less than any other country in the world.

They did lockdown quickly though, with the benefit of hindsight of experiencing what other countries were doing.

ShootsFruitAndLeaves Tue 07-Apr-20 13:07:41

66,000? as I understand it that's quite a low estimate.

I would wait for full year death figures (from all causes) before gloating//ranting too much.

Callimanco Tue 07-Apr-20 13:08:08

What justification is there for us having over 3 times the deaths of the next worst affected nation in this modelling?
I don't get it.

crazydiamond222 Tue 07-Apr-20 13:08:48

Here is their actual data. It does not make much sense to me as some of the data which feeds the model seems way off e.g the number of UK icu beds in the model is just 799 so they are predicting a huge number of deaths based on bed shortage

PicsInRed Tue 07-Apr-20 13:10:25


Because numerically most cases from those events will have contracted the illness from contact with all the "patient zeros", so to speak, of that event, who caught it there and took it home. R0 of approximately 4-6. Exponential. That 2nd generation of cases will be day 7 to 20 and many will still be fighting it out at home, attempting to avoid hospital. Then there is the exponentially 3rd generation and 4th generation, who will report to hospital the week after and the weeks after that.

IIRC, it was approximately a 3 week lead time from that enormous Milan football game to the explosion of cases in Italy.

So, watch this space.

Random18 Tue 07-Apr-20 13:11:28

Message deleted by MNHQ. Here's a link to our Talk Guidelines.

NotEverythingIsBlackandwhite Tue 07-Apr-20 13:11:58

How did 200,000 people come to a small town and party 24/7 for 4 days and not cause any rise at all in the cases or death rate ...... how did that happened?
Is it that people from all over the country went there so infection rates and deaths are spread out over the country? (Although I must admit I'd still expect a spike in Cheltenham).

Talia99 Tue 07-Apr-20 13:12:01

@Noname99 - I think the suggestion is that there was a limited number of people infected in the Cheltenham area but loads of people got infected in the crowded conditions and spread it all over the country.

Bearing in mind it was only the 16th - 19th of March, with a week or two weeks to show symptoms, a week to suffer at home and then deterioration requiring hospital treatment the week after that, since people are only tested going into hospital, it will start showing up in the statistics this week and next. Everyone infected by the race goers will start showing up towards the end of April.

feelingverylazytoday Tue 07-Apr-20 13:12:55

Some of you sound really thick. Lockdowns are not the only method of dealing with this pandemic you know.
But carry on wittering away about things you clearly don't understand, if it makes you feel better.

Tfoot75 Tue 07-Apr-20 13:13:40

It's most likely nonsense fear-mongering. India have large numbers living in slums where a lockdown will likely have virtually no effect on people mixing and social distancing completely impossible. Do you think these people will have access to testing/healthcare let alone have their deaths recorded?

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