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Why are Italy's cases still increasing?

(22 Posts)
lululu16 Mon 06-Apr-20 22:30:48

By 3599 in the last day? Seems like they have been in lockdown for a while so I'm surprised daily new cases are this high. I get there would be a few due to some people still working etc

OP’s posts: |
Tonyaster Mon 06-Apr-20 22:32:23

I personally don't believe lockdown works, but I hope I'm wrong.

Oakmaiden Mon 06-Apr-20 22:41:20

Because people are still mixing and passing it on - just fewer people and more slowly. So the number of cases will go down slowly.

For example (made up figures here) you had a disease that took 1 day to pass on, and initially every person was passing it on to 3 people the new case figures would go 1, 3, 9, 27, etc (and the total number of cases would be 1,4,13,40,67... etc).If you then changed how much people were mixing, so each person could only pass it on to one person the number would then stay at 27 cases a day until you ran out of people. If you change it so that each person infects less than one person (say 0.5 people) the number of cases will still go up, but the number of new cases would gradually decrease (so, for example, 27, 14, 7, 4, 2, 1).

Italy seem to be on the decreasing phase, but are early in it - so they have gone from every person infecting 2 or 3 others to infecting less than one person - so the numbers are going down. But there is still some transmission, so they have not come to an absolute halt.

If that helps at all, and doesn't just make you more confused!

DippyAvocado Mon 06-Apr-20 22:46:24

The overall infection numbers in Italy are on a consistent downward trend. This graph shows how numbers have dropped by a couple of thousand per day since the "peak". The current numbers from both Italy and Spain show that lockdown seems to have worked.

DippyAvocado Mon 06-Apr-20 22:48:34

Sorry, I didn't explain that very clearly. I meant the current number infections per day seem to be about 2k lower than at the peak.

greenlynx Mon 06-Apr-20 22:49:16

I’m sure that lockdown works otherwise they would have more cases. I think the virus’s got everywhere before lockdown and now continue spreading within families, at work place, from patients to health workers and then potentially to their families. People still go to shops; some people don’t follow rules or started following rules later.
They’ve added only 3% of new cases today, it’s really small growth. UK has added 8% today, it’s much better than it was. Without lockdown the virus spreads at 28% average daily.

BlackWhitePurple Mon 06-Apr-20 22:54:27

I don't understand why people think lockdown doesn't work? I know there's the issue of how do you get out of lockdown without a second wave, but that's different. Surely the lockdown itself has to work?

If you don't leave your house, you're not going to catch anything (assuming you didn't have it before lockdown started). If you go out once a week for shopping, you have 1 chance per week to catch the virus. If you're going out every day, meeting friends, on public transport etc, then you have loads of opportunity to catch it. Surely it's obvious that it will spread much more slowly if people stay indoors?

I'm genuinely puzzled; I've read a few people saying lockdown doesn't work, but not heard any explanation.

Derbygerbil Mon 06-Apr-20 22:58:33

By 3599 in the last day? Seems like they have been in lockdown for a while so I'm surprised daily new cases are this high. I get there would be a few due to some people still working etc

Even in a total lockdown with 100% compliance it would take a while. CV take 5 days from infection to symptoms on average. If you’re locked down with your family, and you’re infected a day before lockdown, it would be 10 days on average for your family member to show symptoms. It would then take a week or more from the onset of symptoms before the average person is admitted to hospital, another day or so for the test results to come back, and another day to get into the figures.... that’s a 3 week delay.

Given that no lockdown can be perfect, and incubation is often more than 5 days, it’s not surprising there are still new cases.

Derbygerbil Mon 06-Apr-20 22:59:33

@BlackWhitePurple

Completely agree.

Derbygerbil Mon 06-Apr-20 23:01:23

If Italy hadn’t locked down, infections would have risen exponentially and they’d literally be millions by now.

Stuckforthefourthtime Mon 06-Apr-20 23:06:25

Because you can't lock down everyone. Health workers, shop workers etc are still interacting with lots of people and even those locked down are going out to pick up medicines and groceries. Also a major method of transmission is within the household - so let's say today a delivery driver catches it when delivering essential supplies to a hospital, then goes home to his partner, 2 kids and his mum and dad who live with them (multigenerational households being much more common in Italy)... that makes 6 likely new infections that could show up next week, plus 3+ more people that they infect when they go to the supermarket etc.

Lockdown doesn't eliminate the virus once it's already pretty widespread, just slows the transmission rates.

dany174 Mon 06-Apr-20 23:20:08

People who have it are still infecting other people, just less people.

Someone who got the virus just before lockdown, and might have had non or very light symptoms can still give it to a live in family member a week or two later. This family member might not start showing symptoms until a week or two later. So that's four weeks after lockdown. Its now been exactly four weeks since Italy started the lockdown.

ArriettyJones Mon 06-Apr-20 23:21:44

There is a lot of multigenerational living in Italy, which is bound to undermine lockdown measures to some degree. That’s probably a contributory factor.

winterisstillcoming Tue 07-Apr-20 00:18:55

Because they are testing more and therefore picking up more cases? I've just watched on the news that they are mass testing a particular village so they will pick up the non clinical cases as well as the normal ones.

Expect UK cases to increase sharply as testing increases. Also expect the death rate per number of cases to correspondingly fall.

The number of cases can be a wild card. As can number of deaths but that figure is the best one to go by. That's why we have to wait 3-4 weeks at least to see if lockdown as worked.

Lockdown, and anything that breaks the chain of transmission is the only feasible way to keep it from running rife and to give any of us that might get it the best chance of survival.

buttermilkwaffles Tue 07-Apr-20 00:23:04

Italy drops from 4,316 new cases yesterday to 3,599 new today, lowest since March 18, 17% decrease, 17 of 21 regions lower.

Reginabambina Tue 07-Apr-20 00:25:07

I’m sure that many of them are caught in hospitals. A lot of the cases will also be quite old but only recently confirmed.

RedDiamond Tue 07-Apr-20 00:29:28

And wasn't it reported that a lot of people from the North of Italy went rushing down South where they have family and holiday homes and so the infection has spread?

fallfallfall Tue 07-Apr-20 00:44:07

The worrisome part of lockdown is the contact contamination with mail/groceries and items not immediately associated with another human. The idea my mango can harbor the virus for days on end is frustrating because I know not everything coming in the house is disinfected 100%.

buckeejit Tue 07-Apr-20 08:54:45

@fallfallfall is there any proof that your mango can harbour it for days on end? I've heard just wash fruit & veg with water as normal but other sources have said 20 secs with washing up liquid like hands.

If you didn't touch the mango for 3 days would it be ok?

Tonyaster Tue 07-Apr-20 08:55:57

It's not being spread on groceries fgs.

Winederlust Tue 07-Apr-20 09:02:20

New cases are actually going down in Italy so lockdown is working. 3599 is less than the number recorded the day before. Remember you have an incubation period so it's not going to go from thousands to nothing overnight.

Tonyaster Tue 07-Apr-20 09:03:02

Yes, and as soon as they lift lockdown they will start going up again.

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