Studies corner

[Branster]

There are so many snippets of information regarding small tests, case studies and even research from all over the world, some interesting, some surprising, some hopeful. Too many and too small or sometimes obscure to make the main news

If you’d like to share you are welcome to join the thread.

I’ll make a start with these findings from Canada about a potential inhibitor drug

www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2020/04/200402144526.htm

[BigChocFrenzy]

Thanks, Branster
Good idea

John Burn-Murdoch@jburnmurdoch (FT)

Important new study:

Analysis by @PHanlon17 , @JonMinton and co estimates

more than 10 years of life are lost for each UK Covid death on average, and much more in some cases.

More evidence against "they were going to die soon anyway" line.

Full paper: https://wellcomeopenresearch.org/articles/5-75

COVID-19 – exploring the implications of long-term condition type and extent of multimorbidity on years of life lost: a modelling study
[version 1; peer review: awaiting peer review]

Conclusions:
Deaths from COVID-19 represent a substantial burden in terms of per-person YLL,more than a decade, even after adjusting for the typical number and type of LTCs found in people dying of COVID-19.
The extent of multimorbidity heavily influences the estimated YLL at a given age.
More comprehensive and standardised collection of data on LTCs is needed to better understand and quantify the global burden of COVID-19 and to guide policy-making and interventions.

[BigChocFrenzy]

Social network-based distancing strategies to flatten the COVID 19 curve in a post-lockdown world

Per Block@block_per

How can we devise smart social distancing measures that keep the curve flat?

Our new pre-print introduces a network science approach to alleviate the social and economic costs of social distancing while keeping infections low. 1/8

https://arxiv.org/abs/2004.07052

With complete or near-complete lock-downs deep into their second month in many places,
strategies that allow social and economic life to move closer to a pre-covid world without risking a destructive second wave are sorely needed. 2/8

We introduce a novel approach to the spread of infection
using core elements from infection models, ideal-type social network models, and statistical relational event models.

Our model explicitly allows for individuals making smart choices… 3/8

…whom to interact with based on their local knowledge of social contact in their immediate vicinity.

We suggest strategies that every individual can adopt to curb spread for all of society.

These strategies are based on the insight that infection curves … 4/8

…are closely related to the network concept of path length.

Illustration shows the spread of disease along network ties in networks with same number of people and connections,
but different path lengths from infection source. 5/8

3 strategies we test are

(i) limiting interaction to a few repeated contacts,
(ii) maintaining similarity across contacts, and
(iii) the strengthening of triadic communities.

Each individual-level strategy strongly impacts macro-level disease spread. 6/8

Simulating infection curves on the same network topology with different interaction strategies shows strong effect of each strategy
with repeated contact being most efficient in limiting spread. 7/8

[NeurotrashWarrior]

Thanks for the thread!



Steve Jones was talking about vit d on pm radio 4 just before 6pm. Also referring to how vit d helped with TB.

[ChazsBrilliantAttitude]

Placemarking

[homeschoolchaos]

Following

[cathyandclare]

Interesting paper on obesity, fatty liver and CV

www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/32320741

[NewAccountForCorona]

I'm placemarking too.

I'm on a hunt for studies to do with

1. Vitamin D levels
2. Viral load/dose - are symptoms more severe for patients who have been infected by multiple others, eg healthcare workers
3. Effect of early oxygen treatment.

This'll be a place to gather the info as I get it. Thanks, Branster

[schimmelreiter]

Hello

[alreadytaken]

another useful study on that Canadian page - if you lose your sense of sell and taste you probably do have the virus but you will get your sense of smell and taste back

www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2020/04/200413132809.htm

[alreadytaken]

vitamin D summary hospitalhealthcare.com/covid-19/is-vitamin-d-an-important-biomarker-for-symptom-severity-in-covid-19/

[BigChocFrenzy]

Studies of other vitamins tablets and of fish oil capsules have shown that supplementation is often less effective than raising levels naturally through changes of diet and lifestyle

[Quarantinequeen]

Thanks for the thread. I think the government should read it!

[alreadytaken]

Although I think it's pretty well known now the original paper about survival times for the virus on different surfaces. Store cardboard for 24 hours and you are probably OK, plastic and stainless steel need longer or disinfecting.

www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMc2004973?query=featured_home

[TheCanterburyWhales]

Thank you.
I'm reading and learning from you all.

[Ereshkigalangcleg]

Thank you! Placemarking.

[NewAccountForCorona]

Thanks for that link alreadytaken; I was looking for it earlier as this idiot from SafeFood Ireland is all over the media convincing people that packaging is perfectly safe.

Here www.rte.ie/news/coronavirus/2020/0423/1134427-shopping-sanitising/ for example, but everywhere today [baffled]

Her comments about takeaways are equally baffling - how do we know which companies to "trust".

[BigChocFrenzy]

www.npr.org/sections/coronavirus-live-updates/2020/04/17/836747242/in-south-korea-a-growing-number-of-covid-19-patients-test-positive-after-recover

Korean health authorities had identified 163 patients who tested positive again after a full recovery.

The number more than doubled in about a week, up from 74 cases on April 9.

Those patients - just over 2% of the country's 7,829 recovered patients - are now back in isolation.

[BigChocFrenzy]

Covid-19 and Vitamin D Information

www.dropbox.com/s/ka7h4fbi7xdz9s9/Covid-19%20and%20Vitamin%20D%20Information.pdf

https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/28607392#

Current vitamin D status in European and Middle East countries and strategies to prevent vitamin D deficiency

(peer-reviewed & published 2019)

https://eje.bioscientifica.com/view/journals/eje/180/4/EJE-18-0736.xml

Current vitamin D status in European and Middle East countries and strategies to prevent vitamin D deficiency

Vitamin D deficiency (serum 25-hydroxyvitamin D (25(OH)D)

[BigChocFrenzy]

COVID-19 case cluster study (Gangelt Municipality)
Lead - Prof. Hendrik Streeck (Inst. Virology, Uni Bonn)

This area is an early epicentre with the highest % cases in Germany, spread after a carnival

The study used questionnaires, took throat swabs and tested blood for the presence of antibodies (IgG, IgA).

Work is ongoing, but the recent interim report found that 15% of the population are immune

Infection rate would be much lower over the country as a whole

https://www.land.nrw/sites/default/files/asset/document/zwischenergebniscovid199casestudyygangelt_0.pdf

[NeurotrashWarrior]

Just noticed the fall out on the fb nhs page re vitamin D.

Many, many research papers linked... 😶

[NeurotrashWarrior]

Sorry, to clarify, nhs saying there's no protective effect of vit d, while even Steve Jones was on PM yesterday saying he thought so.

[NeurotrashWarrior]

One person claims to have been put on after Covid and a stint in hospital, though her bloods could have shown deficiency of course.

[NeurotrashWarrior]

.

[NeurotrashWarrior]

This is very interesting. And concerning, though at least air pollution is lower at the moment.


https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2020/apr/24/coronavirus-detected-particles-air-pollution?utmsource=dlvr.it&utmm_medium=facebook

[BigChocFrenzy]

Coronavirus Disease Outbreak in Call Center, South Korea

https://wwwnc.cdc.gov/eid/article/26/8/20-1274_article