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It’s scandalous that you can’t see how many covid cases in your city

(35 Posts)

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Redolent Tue 30-Jun-20 18:03:37

Oh, but you can - you just have to put in your postcode into one of those online search tools right?

Wrong.

Those only show Pillar 1 data. ‘Pillar 1’ is swab testing in hospitals. ‘Pillar 2’ is testing among the wider population. It’s where 75% of cases are.

The overall figure for new cases published each day is accurate. But it’s almost impossible to find out where they are at a local and regional level.

So using one of those tools, you could have been assured that your city hasn’t seen any new cases for weeks, when that’s patently false.

Nationally, your chance of getting coronavirus might be 1:1250. But locally, it could be 1:250, and you would have no way of knowing. Or modifying your behaviour accordingly.

In the FT today:

www.ft.com/content/301c847c-a317-4950-a75b-8e66933d423a

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greenlynx Wed 01-Jul-20 00:35:30

I’ve just realised this (was mentioned in the local newspaper) and I’m fuming! I was under illusion that it’s all fine locally and now it actually isn’t!

I was wondering yesterday how did the outbreak at Leicester was missed for so long and now it’s obvious - because they didn’t have data daily so had no idea what’s going on.

greenlynx Wed 01-Jul-20 00:38:44

By the way can’t open the article - it’s only by subscription.

SisterAgatha Wed 01-Jul-20 00:40:37

Yabu

coronavirus.data.gov.uk/region#category=ltlas&map=rate

gotothecooler Wed 01-Jul-20 00:43:59

But it’s almost impossible to find out where they are at a local and regional level.

I check this information every day on the Gov site

SisterAgatha Wed 01-Jul-20 00:45:55

The link I’ve posted shows lower local authority areas so I can even check our tiny little area in Herts. The media is the last place you should check statistics.

ChavvySexPond Wed 01-Jul-20 00:48:14

The blue is the data people in Leicester have access to. The red is the truth.

No wonder they were stunned to get hit with a lockdown.

Redolent Wed 01-Jul-20 00:51:39

Message deleted by MNHQ. Here's a link to our Talk Guidelines.

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SisterAgatha Wed 01-Jul-20 00:53:07

Why would they be stunned, people across the U.K. have had full access to the daily data on the gov website which is easily googl-able by anyone with a smart phone or laptop.

SisterAgatha Wed 01-Jul-20 00:54:36

It’s not only me that can see this, right?

PickAChew Wed 01-Jul-20 00:57:34

Or it could have been 1 in 6000 but you wouldn't have known because of the influx of belated data.

No new cases reported in my entire county of over half a million in the past week. OK, there was 1 but another one was retracted as a duplicate report.

Redolent Wed 01-Jul-20 00:58:57

SisterAgatha

It’s not only me that can see this, right?

Yes I can see it too, and like I said that information is wrong. It’s Pillar 1 only.

Leicester does NOT have a total of 1,059 cases.

—————-
From the BBC:

Leicester City Council said the latest figures obtained by the authority showed that 3,216 Covid-19 cases had been confirmed in the city since the start of the epidemic.

"Of these, 944 cases were reported in the last two weeks," a spokesman said.

"These figures include the number of patients and staff testing as positive in hospitals and positive cases identified in testing centres."

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PatriciaHolm Wed 01-Jul-20 00:59:22

@sisteragatha @gotothecooler

That link is NOT all cases. That's the point.

That link, and all the regional data out there, is PIllar One only. Just the tests in hospitals/healthcare settings/health workers.

It does NOT include Pillar 2: community tests. Which now make up 75% or more of tests and positives. So the regional data is extremely misleading.

This is what the data looks like for pillar 1 and 2 for week end 21 (extrapolating from the PHE survelliance document, thanks to @rp131 on Twitter.) you can clearly see why they are worried about Leicester....

And what the difference is in terms of positives by pillar by region. Showing the big discrepancies.

greenlynx Wed 01-Jul-20 01:00:39

@gotothecooler and @SisterAgatha
The government website breaks only Pillar 1 data by local authorities but not Pillar 2 (community cases).
I’ve realised this just yesterday myself. It’s actually written on BBC website where you are checking confirmed cases in your area. It says: Cases in England will be an under-count.

ChavvySexPond Wed 01-Jul-20 01:09:49

Why would they be stunned, people across the U.K. have had full access to the daily data on the gov website which is easily googl-able by anyone with a smart phone or laptop.

No we don't @SisterAgatha. That's the point.

FlamedToACrisp Wed 01-Jul-20 01:13:55

Is that figure the total right now, or the total since the pandemic began? I've been keeping a record and our area has just gone up and up, yet the govt chart shows it going down.

confusedandtired99 Wed 01-Jul-20 01:25:37

I’m furious. I’ve put it on my facebook wall, and anywhere else I can think of, but in the rush to get back to normal I don’t think many people will care.

In the East Midlands where I live the infection rate is now back to what it was in mid April apparently.

metro.co.uk/2020/06/30/hundreds-local-authorities-missing-vital-coronavirus-testing-data-12925072/

But I imagine lots of people won’t care and they will still all go out on the 4th regardless.

NothingIsWrong Wed 01-Jul-20 01:32:57

YABU. It is here by upper tier local authority from the weekly surveillance report.

assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/896777/Weekly_COVID19_report_data_current.xlsx

Figure 9 data is what you are after. This shows pillar 1 and pillar 2 totals by UTLA

PatriciaHolm Wed 01-Jul-20 01:37:04

That excel has only been available for the last few days though (it's where my graphs above are extrapolated from) and it's not the data that is being used by any of the regional search tools out there. It's buried in the notes from the PHE surveillance report. The vast majority of people would have no idea it exists (and it only has for a few days).

NothingIsWrong Wed 01-Jul-20 01:41:54

OK, that gives the rates per 100,000 for this week. Populations are on Wiki. So you can work out how many cases this week.

This appears to be the first week they have supplied the excel data, but going forward you will be able to see how many pillar 1 and pillar 2 per week by ULTA.

It would be better if it was LTLA, but hopefully that will be available soon.

NothingIsWrong Wed 01-Jul-20 01:42:55

Fingers crossed now it's known that it's out there the various search engines will include it.

Redolent Wed 01-Jul-20 01:45:05

confusedandtired99

I’m furious. I’ve put it on my facebook wall, and anywhere else I can think of, but in the rush to get back to normal I don’t think many people will care.

In the East Midlands where I live the infection rate is now back to what it was in mid April apparently.

metro.co.uk/2020/06/30/hundreds-local-authorities-missing-vital-coronavirus-testing-data-12925072/

But I imagine lots of people won’t care and they will still all go out on the 4th regardless.

I can imagine it was done deliberately for that reason.

‘But you know, we don’t want to WORRY people’

nods of assent

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NothingIsWrong Wed 01-Jul-20 01:46:03

They've obviously got the data going back as Fig 9 was first published for w/e 28th May so let's hope they release it

whereistherum Wed 01-Jul-20 01:49:03

And yet another reason why they are no longer doing daily briefings, while I think they were being limited, the government are not longing answering questions unless they are allow someone to interview them.

Redolent Wed 01-Jul-20 01:49:24

NothingIsWrong

They've obviously got the data going back as Fig 9 was first published for w/e 28th May so let's hope they release it

I think moving on we might see clearer data, yes. But as revealed by @SisterAgatha above, the vast majority of people have been making completely inaccurate risk assessments.

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