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To wonder why the UK hasn't gone into lockdown yet?

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UnderReview Mon 24-Feb-20 10:00:49

Why doesn't the UK shut down now? Prevention better than (no) cure?

There's a doctor on Twitter (Dr Emma Hodcroft) who posted this...

Why are scientists alarmed when the first #COVID19 cases we hear of in a country are deaths? I thought it worth clarifying.

It's not because we worry the virus is "bad", "getting worse" or "changing". It's because #SARSCoV2 doesn't seem to lead to death very quickly
It seems like #SARSCoV2 infection takes about 3-4 weeks to overwhelm someone & lead to death - if it does, which for many it does not.

But this then implies that when we see deaths, those people have had the virus for weeks beforehand

And if no cases or only very few, well-tracable cases were detected during those weeks, #SARSCoV2 was circulating undetected.

And then only detected in some people who got ill enough to die. We know that's only a small fraction of the population

We don't know the answer to these questions exactly, but we don't need to in order to appreciate that seeing deaths first, or at time of diagnosis, is concerning to scientists & public health.

It's a sign that #SARSCoV2 is circulating more widely than we thought

This then marks a change in strategy, as we've seen in Italy, where it's very hard to retrace & take action, sometimes impossible. These efforts are still worthwhile, but harder than when detect #COVID19 cases earlier in the chain

Originalusernameunavailable Mon 24-Feb-20 10:01:54

Have you thought about the practicalities of putting the country into lock down? It’s not a flippant thing to do. It takes time and planning.

Seventyone72seventy3 Mon 24-Feb-20 10:02:32

This is why I doubt we can really contain it but we should take measures to slow down spread.

Cacaca Mon 24-Feb-20 10:03:32

If you’re that concerned - put yourself into a self-imposed lockdown/quarantine.

TokyoSushi Mon 24-Feb-20 10:04:13

I'm not sure it's quite that simple OP...

Hobbesmanc Mon 24-Feb-20 10:05:02

We went to Venice two weeks ago for the start of the Carnival. As we got off the flight every passenger had their temp taken by masked medics. And that was before the current outbreak. So is questionable how effective a total lock down would be.

Skyejuly Mon 24-Feb-20 10:05:30

I don't think there would be much point at this stage

Enchiladas Mon 24-Feb-20 10:05:33

We can't put the country in lockdown because there will be an uproar at the 'racism' of it by the left.

MadameLeFunky Mon 24-Feb-20 10:07:13

Have you thought about the practicalities of putting the country into lock down? It’s not a flippant thing to do. It takes time and planning.

This. A lockdown has huge implications on families and businesses. So far we seem to have done a sterling job of managing people returning to the country, quarantining them and then releasing them once clear. Just 13 cases is really good, imo.

JustInCaseCakeHappens Mon 24-Feb-20 10:07:24

First it's far too late anyway

Two, starting an absolute panic in the country wouldn't have helped
let alone the practicalities of a country like ours who is so far from self-sufficient... how would that even work do you think?

Grobagsforever Mon 24-Feb-20 10:07:49

Message deleted by MNHQ. Here's a link to our Talk Guidelines.

Enchiladas Mon 24-Feb-20 10:18:54

Clearly I touched a nerve grobagsforever lol

Cinammoncake Mon 24-Feb-20 10:19:10

We can't put the country in lockdown because there will be an uproar at the 'racism' of it by the left.
hmm grin

It would have huge financial and practical implications. I sometimes wonder where the people suggesting this live tbh. Not especially easy to cut ourselves off from the rest of the world, and for how long? ... months?

shinyredbus Mon 24-Feb-20 10:21:43

Jesus Christ Op - do you really think it’s that simple to ‘lockdown’ a whole country?! Have you thought about implications to business/economy/etc? Maybe if you’re so worried - you should self impose quarantine until this is over.

Awkward1 Mon 24-Feb-20 10:22:23

Possibly those older people 70/80+ will need to isolate to avoid catching it.

I think it will go round the world. Many will die (but possibly less % than in China. )

People should really try to stop smoking as that could make the difference and may be why the death rates are higher in China.

But lessons need to be learned. This whole thing is a huge cock up!
Countries need to be up front.
All countries need to build isolation units.
We need isolation hospitals.
We may need to consider not moving or treating ill people (because it spreads it and infects the medics).
Donations to set up isolation units and testing centers in 3rd world countries.
No assumptions about incubation times.
We cannot trust people to self isolate (person in Russia who ran off and UK who wanted to leave).

If this had been as deadly as SARs or MERs it would have ended up killing 30-50% of the population.

ManonBlackbeak Mon 24-Feb-20 10:25:56

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Whichoneofyoudidthat Mon 24-Feb-20 10:29:12

The impact to the economy/business is so great I don't think people can really understand the enormous repercussions. We're already feeling them due to the China lockdown. Tourism in some countries is down up to 70% for this time of year. Not to mention the disruption in exports.

I agree Awkward re the smoking. I also think countries with high populations of smokers (and high pollution, which China also has) will fare worse.

Enchiladas Mon 24-Feb-20 10:29:48

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shinyredbus Mon 24-Feb-20 10:31:47

^^ this as well.

I know someone would be on here blaming the tories. 🤷🏻‍♀️ Stupidly predictable.

HasaDigaEebowai Mon 24-Feb-20 10:32:44

Oh for goodness sakes this is nothing to do with party politics and stupid stereotypical views on both sides hmm Grow up

Seventyone72seventy3 Mon 24-Feb-20 10:33:34

I suppose we could do it as a dry run for Brexit! grin

janemaster Mon 24-Feb-20 10:37:35

We import most of our food. We also rely for our economy on industries that mean people fly all over the world. The business I work for would end up closing down if we were on lockdown as a country. It would be impossible to operate.

If the virus does spread more here, it would make sense for older people to be very careful about where they go e.g. not being in crowds, adopting very good hand hygiene. But the country going into lockdown would be a major issue.

What I think we should be doing is screening passengers coming from certain countries. Friend came from Singapore recently. In Singapore there was screening before they boarded the flight, but nothing in the UK.

ErrolTheDragon Mon 24-Feb-20 10:37:35

* The impact to the economy/business is so great I don't think people can really understand the enormous repercussions. We're already feeling them due to the China lockdown*

There could be deaths caused by excessive/premature 'lockdown'.

* If this had been as deadly as SARs or MERs it would have ended up killing 30-50% of the population.*

If it had been that deadly it would probably have been detected earlier and more consistently.

opticaldelusion Mon 24-Feb-20 10:38:07

We can't put the country in lockdown because there will be an uproar at the 'racism' of it by the left

Ha ha. This is satire, right?

ChazsBrilliantAttitude Mon 24-Feb-20 10:39:43

What does lockdown mean? We are not self sufficient. No lorries through Dover because of the drivers? No public transport? Shut schools? All pupils travelling back after half term holidays to be quarantined for 2 weeks?

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