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To think the Irish Abortion Referendum outcome will be a close call?

(335 Posts)
Jellyfish456 Thu 24-May-18 20:52:38

Polling day is within touching distance and from what I’ve seen on my social media channels, the vast majority seem to be swaying towards voting to Repeal. Do we think this is a true reflection of the majority or are the No side just less likely to be vocal on their social media channels? Whatever the outcome, I think it will be close.

What are everyone else’s thoughts?

50shadesofgreyismylaundry Thu 24-May-18 20:56:29

I'm through with predicting elections. It's a mug's game.

Jellyfish456 Thu 24-May-18 20:57:39

Think you’re probably right @50shades !

TKRedLemonade Thu 24-May-18 20:57:46

Unfortunately you are correct as the no social media generation are mainly the NO vote

AfterSchoolWorry Thu 24-May-18 20:58:29

I'm gonna say 54% yes 46% no.

Grumpbum Thu 24-May-18 20:59:07

Fingers crossed it goes the right way

Numbsnet Thu 24-May-18 21:00:11

All the no voters I know are keeping quiet about it unless asked. And more that are probably saying they don't know yet as they don't want a lecture.
I think there's going to be a higher no representation than expected which worries me.
A high number of women I know are voting no. Country Town, working class women. I get the feeling they are half afraid of the parish priest and doing it in case they get found out.

IrenetheQuaint Thu 24-May-18 21:00:59

"from what I’ve seen on my social media channels, the vast majority seem to be swaying towards voting to Repeal"

- just like from what I saw on my social media channels before the Brexit referendum, the vast majority were swaying towards staying in the EU.

What people you know say on social media is (sadly) of no use in polling terms.

DrMantisToboggan Thu 24-May-18 21:02:42

Traditional polls have a small majority for Yes - the latest Red C one in particular.

Can’t trust the social media echo chamber but I think it’ll pass, possibly almost as tightly as the divorce referendum.

Eighttimeseight Thu 24-May-18 21:03:18

51% yes - 49% no... that's my prediction..

CaffeineAndCrochet Thu 24-May-18 21:03:50

Most people I know are voting to repeal but most people I know are young and fairly liberal. It's going to be incredibly close and there's many of us that will be absolutely broken-hearted if the result is a no.

Amanduh Thu 24-May-18 21:03:52

Just reading some instamums posts (i know i know) and although many say repeal, there are still a lot of comments from pro lifers angry

LapinR0se Thu 24-May-18 21:05:16

My conservative, very Catholic parents are voting yes which gives me great hope

reallifesucks Thu 24-May-18 21:08:58

I am really surprised with some of the people I know that are no voters. Late 30's early 40's women. It's frightening . I'm very concerned it might not get repealed.

Procrastination4 Thu 24-May-18 21:12:51

Well, the vitriol expressed towards anyone who supports the “ No” campaign on his/her social media pages would be surely enough of a warning to other Anti-Repealers to refrain from doing so, I would have thought. Besides, many people still believe that your vote is actually a private matter, you know, so anyone who believes that is certainly not going to be broadcasting their proposed vote on the internet.
So, while YANBU to wonder if the vote will be a close call, you are BU to suppose that it is possible to call it just yet.

Crunchymum Thu 24-May-18 21:14:00

Sadly (very sadly) I'm predicting no.... sad

Butterymuffin Thu 24-May-18 21:17:06

How is it going to be phrased on the ballot paper? Tim Shipman's book on Brexit says the Leave camp argued hard to have the Remain/Leave options rather than Yes (stay) and No (leave) and felt it made a real difference as there's always a pull towards a Yes option.

Procrastination4 Thu 24-May-18 21:17:28

Oh Sorry! I got the wrong end of the stick there! I thought that the OP’s question was just that...a question! So I answered it as that. (Besides, I believe that my vote is private, and never ever tell anyone how I’m going to vote in anything! I’m also not interested in how others are going to vote because, luckily, we live in a democracy and we are all free to vote as we see fit. grin

DrMantisToboggan Thu 24-May-18 21:20:10

Yes is for repeal

evilharpy Thu 24-May-18 21:20:17

I'm predicting no. I desperately want to be wrong.

Inkspellme Thu 24-May-18 21:22:57

I'm hoping so hard for a yes but its going to be tight. 90% of the people I know are voting yes but I too believe the no voters are simply keeping their opinions to themselves.

I really see this as one of the last strong influences of the Catholic church in Ireland. The same sex marriage referendum gives me hope of the influence reducing. We've changed as a country radically in a generation - divorce voted in, same sex marriage voted in, contraceptives have gone from having to be bought in The North to being available in supermarkets (like any other modern country) - and hopefully tomorrows vote will continue this trend.

Returnofthesmileybar Thu 24-May-18 21:24:30

Another yes voter here, tomorrow will be very tight. I think it's a bit like the gay marriage in the sense that no voters feel they have to keep quiet, except the people up the road from me, they have all sorts of crazy signs made in the garden "Say no to MURDER" "Do not MURDER babies", all signs in black with murder in red. I was tempted to canvas them for the yes vote just see what they said grin

ALittleAubergine Thu 24-May-18 21:24:46

I think it'll be a no.

Grenoble124 Thu 24-May-18 21:25:49

Voting to repeal tom as is my Dad. My DH remains to be convinced. Although I have explained I could die during a pregnancy he is grateful that his son was not aborted even though that is what he wanted at the time.

Grenoble124 Thu 24-May-18 21:26:15

I think it will be yes.

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