To wonder what our Archduke Ferdinand moment is going to be?

[CredulousThickos]

You know, for when our three eyed, albino, telepathic descendants do their history gcse.

Brexit? Trump as US president, and the ensuing twitter row with North Korea? The upcoming Spanish Civil war? One of the recent terror attacks worldwide?

Just musing really as DD was doing ‘causes of WW1’ for homework.

[florentinasummertime]

I do think objectively we are at an interesting point.

[ComingUpTrumps]

Mmm I agree we're in the middle of a tricky period right now. Perhaps Brexit could be it?

[CredulousThickos]

It does all feel like a tipping point. But then I don’t know whether that’s because of the media saturation, 24hr news as it happens sort of thing.

We are living in interesting times, that’s for sure. Scary, but interesting.

[ComputerUserNotTrained]

I think Brexit was it.

[RJnomore1]

Nah not brexit. It's a storm in a teacup not a world altering event.

I think 9/11 was it.

[ChardonnaysPrettySister]

The destruction of the nature and clean water crisis.

[florentinasummertime]

The 2014 elections revealed a lot, i think.

[RavenclawRealist]

I always thought it would be 9/11 but I’m not so sure anymore things are very up in the air at the moment! My gut says there would be one it will be a period of time known as the bad old days or something similar

[CredulousThickos]

It might be the machines that get us. So it will be the introduction of Smart phones or something.

Or perhaps it will be Bowie dying.

[Jammydodger81]

Ah I fondly remember having to draw a pressure gauge with the events on showing how everything built up for WW1, it does feel very like that now OP.

I think it might be either US or Korea firing a missile at each other, I think the rest of the world has the sense not to start it but will get dragged in afterwards.

[kuniloofdooksa]

Brexit and Trump are both symptoms not triggers.

The roots of the causation are in the rise of free market capitalism. No big trigger event but gradually over the past 6 or 7 decades in the boardrooms of big business the realisation has dawned that socially responsible democracy is at conflict with their ability to make a profit and have turned their efforts to subverting democracy to destroy its power to restrain their activities.

Civilisation is not going to collapse, it will just descend into plutocratic dystopia. There won't be GCSE history questions about it as academic disciplines like history will eventually cease to be studied as there is less profit in them than vocational qualifications.

[WinnieTheW0rm]

9/11 for a change to an invasion policy.

The prolonged absence of peace following those invasions.

The first water war that arises in those fairly unstable regions, and which produces people flows that another country cannot keep hydrated, so shoots migrants at borders.

[Subtlecheese]

Brexit not it. But it will probably be the point where UK history will just be an 'also ran by line. For the next world war something Trump does as he's gleefully performing an idiot dance to fuck off yet another unstable regime.

[IfYouGoDownToTheWoodsToday]

I think it will come from N Korea. He will set off a nuclear bomb which will land in Japan, instead of in the water.

[pisacake]

Merkel.

It's always the Germans.

[superking]

It's interesting that people say Korea - I wonder whether that would really trigger a WW. Who would be fighting who? If NK fired a nuke at Japan or South Korea the consensus seems to be that it would be totally destroyed in retaliation. China is NK's only real ally but only for their own ends and I don't see them wanting to get dragged into anything. Interested to hear other perspectives on this as I'm sure there are others who are better informed than me.

[Lweji]

Not yet Brexit. It hasn't actually happened yet and it has been mostly civilised.
More concerned about Barcelona.

[sayshellsunderwaterblblblb]

It is too soon to say, but as long as Trump is at the helm anything is possible.

[Flyingflipflop]

When China invade Taiwan.

I do wonder if that will happen on the back of any Korean escalation.

[IfYouGoDownToTheWoodsToday]

superking I suppose I was jthinking that NK if an accident did happen and USA fired back, NK would not hesitate to fire weapons in any direction, so many countries would be affected. But you are correct, that probably wouldn't lead to a WW. Unless China decided to support them, for some unfathomable reason.

[Cruciatus]

The roots of the causation are in the rise of free market capitalism. No big trigger event but gradually over the past 6 or 7 decades in the boardrooms of big business the realisation has dawned that socially responsible democracy is at conflict with their ability to make a profit and have turned their efforts to subverting democracy to destroy its power to restrain their activities

Civilisation is not going to collapse, it will just descend into plutocratic dystopia. There won't be GCSE history questions about it as academic disciplines like history will eventually cease to be studied as there is less profit in them than vocational qualifications

Excellent synopsis!

[MiraiDevant]

kuniloofdooksa - is right I think.

A moment? Not Brexit -that is peaceful and simple politics. No real dispute over territory or idealogy. 9/11 was certainly a game changer and Winnie has a point about water.

I suspect NK will attack someone who will retaliate. The Chinese may get involved and are looking for a reason to attack USA which is weakening. In the meantime ISIS are destabilising Europe and India, Pakistan, Turkey and Egypt are all worrying.

But it might all be fine and I am just in a depressive mood today.

[ThomasRichard]

We seem to have had an awful lot of near-misses recently and be teetering on the edge of all-out catastrophe but there are so many potential flash-points that I'm not sure. I thought Crimea would push us over the edge but it didn't. North Korea seems to be the obvious one but I think it would go down too easily. The countries skirmishing over the South China Sea are concerning, especially the threat to international shipping lanes. The Middle East bubbles on. No one seems to care when millions of people are raped and slaughtered in Africa :(

[Lweji]

China is working towards financial world domination. They don't want a war now.
And nobody is fool enough to attack them.

I don't think Kim is stupid to actually attack anyone. There's method to his madness.

[Seeline]

I don't know.

I've got one DC doing the causes of WW1 and the other doing the Cold War at the moment. They both have chilling similarities to current world politics. You can't help feeling something is about to happen....