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How long do you think it will be until the next General Election?

(61 Posts)
Parker231 Sun 11-Jun-17 11:18:52

We've been discussing/arguing about this over breakfast. I reckon May won't last and we'll have another election within 3 months. DH thinks she is going to hold on regardless. DT's (one who is doing politics at Uni) are fed up with it and have said they don't care.

Asmoto Sun 11-Jun-17 11:25:26

If we were to have another, something major would have to change to avoid the same outcome, or a parliament that had even more evenly divided seats.

x2boys Sun 11-Jun-17 11:27:28

well its been said in various papers that senior Tories want her out within the yr which would mean another leadership battle and then another 'unelected prime minister' and people will grumble that whoever becomes prime minister wasent voted for and so the cycle continues....

Cocklodger Sun 11-Jun-17 11:28:36

Probably 5 minutes from now.

x2boys Sun 11-Jun-17 11:29:10

and btw I know you vote for the party not the prime minister but people dont see it that way.

Maudlinmaud Sun 11-Jun-17 11:29:53

I think she will be out before the months over. It would be madness to carry on. I'm fully prepared to eat those words.

SerfTerf Sun 11-Jun-17 11:30:39

As soon as Brexit negotiations are over or break down.

x2boys Sun 11-Jun-17 11:31:31

who do you think will win the leadership battle?

StillDrivingMeBonkers Sun 11-Jun-17 11:32:42

I'm at pains to point this out every time.

We do not elect prime ministers. It is an appointment position. May, nor Cameron, nor Brown, nor Blair, nor Major etc have ever been on my ballot paper. I do not live in their constituencies. Why do people not grasp this elementary fact of our electoral system?

We did not have an election, post war the following, including May, have all been PM without an election:

Gordon Brown Brown sparked a “Will he? Won’t he?” election mystery when he entered Downing Street after 10 years as Tony Blair’s Chancellor in 2007. Despite Tory claims that he lacked a mandate he abandoned plans to call a snap election and clung on to power for three years before David Cameron and the Conservative/Lib Dem coalition won in 2010.

John Major Major was elected Tory leader in November 1990 after Margaret Thatcher’s dramatic fall from power. Despite calls for an immediate election from Labour leader Neil Kinnock, he took the UK into the Gulf War and survived an IRA assassination attempt before going to the polls in April 1992. He won and spent a further five years in power before Blair’s 1997 New Labour landslide.

James Callaghan Callaghan took over from Harold Wilson in 1976, after the latter resigned two years into his fourth term in office. At a time of heavy industrial unrest Callaghan took the country through the infamous Winter of Discontent before going to the polls in 1979. He was heavily defeated by Thatcher and Labour were out of power for the following 18 years.

Alec Douglas-Home Sir Alec was Prime Minister for 363 days, the second-shortest term in the 20th century. He was the Earl of Home and a Tory peer in the Lords when the party chose him in October 1963 to replace Harold Macmillan, who had retired through ill health. Sir Alec renounced his peerage and won a by-election for the safe Kinross and Perthshire West Commons seat, but then lost the the 1964 General Election to Wilson’s Labour.

Harold Macmillan The Old Etonian took over in 1957 when Anthony Eden resigned following the debacle of the Suez Crisis the previous year. “Supermac” led the country for two years before calling a General Election in 1959. He increased the Conservative majority by 20 at the expense of Hugh Gaitskell’s Labour.

Winston Churchill Appointed Prime Minister in Britain’s “darkest hour” in 1940 to replace Neville Chamberlain, he led the Conservatives into the 1945 post-war election. The party was promptly thrashed by Clement Atlee’s Labour, who went on to create the NHS and the modern welfare state. Churchill eventually won an election in 1951 and was Prime Minister until 1955.

HoldMeCloserTonyDanza Sun 11-Jun-17 11:33:12

We'll be voting again by Christmas.

Wouldn't shock me if the Tories had two new leaders in the next year either (one in a bitter shanking-May leadership contest within the next three months, and one after they lose even more seats in the GE that comes from the collapse of the govt in the midst of the leadership election).

StillDrivingMeBonkers Sun 11-Jun-17 11:33:39

but in answer to your question - she will step down quietly and with dignity and then we have to go through all the leadership crap yet again.

x2boys Sun 11-Jun-17 11:35:19

i did say that stilldriving but there was a lot of moaning on here and other social media about her being unelected.

LassWiTheDelicateAir Sun 11-Jun-17 11:35:53

2014 Independence referendum,
2015 General election,
2016 Holyrood election and EU referendum, 2017 Council elections and general election.

6 in less than 3 years. I'm fed up. I think it will take something major to force another one.

TheNaze73 Sun 11-Jun-17 11:37:18

November 9th

Sunnymeg Sun 11-Jun-17 11:37:21

The Tories will do everything they can to avoid it. The momentum is with Labour and the pact with the DUP has hardly made the Tories look attractive. I expect that Theresa will go during the summer recess, perhaps citing health problems as a way out and then we will have and leadership contest in the autumn. Quite what this will mean for Brexit negotiations is anyone's guess. Alternatively the Tories will be unable to get their Queen's speech through parliament,which may happen if there are concessions to the DUP moderate MP's aren't happy with and Labour will have a go and the Tories will abstain en bloc to let it go through, as happened in 1974. Something major needs to happen to give the Tories any hope in the next election, They may want to lick their wounds and regroup. The last thing we need at the moment is another election.

Maudlinmaud Sun 11-Jun-17 11:37:35

stilldriving so we don't need another GE and May will just step down?

ZivaDiva Sun 11-Jun-17 11:37:38

I would like an election with no campaigning, just detailed manifestos and thats it. No mud slinging, no personal attacks just clear intentions in writing.

Cantseethewoods Sun 11-Jun-17 11:42:31

An outlier but I think it could go the full term albeit I think May will step down once Brexit negotiations are concluded and let another leader take the Conservatives into the next election, giving them about 2 years.

I actually believe that when it comes down to it, Labour will not torpedo a deal on Europe unless they at 100% sure they can do better.

AlpacaPicnic Sun 11-Jun-17 11:44:04

I would not be surprised to be voting again before the end of the year.

I hope to be wrong. But I would not be surprised...

emwithme Sun 11-Jun-17 11:44:07

I'm wavering between 26 October and 4 November as my primary choices, although it may well be as early as 7 September.

Alicia555 Sun 11-Jun-17 11:46:12

A million years

Lokisglowstickofdestiny Sun 11-Jun-17 11:48:17

Depends on whether they have enough money to mount a campaign - they aren't cheap?

SapphireStrange Sun 11-Jun-17 11:48:28

I think she'll quietly go in the summer recess too.

Of course it leaves a vacuum, shambling into which I can see the terrifying spectre of Boris Johnson.

I actually want Osborne to come back.

swimmerforlife Sun 11-Jun-17 11:49:07

I'll give it until Christmas.

Cantseethewoods Sun 11-Jun-17 11:50:17

She said last week that she'd see the Brexit negotiations through, implying that she'd go after that, or st least that's how I read it.

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