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YouGov Poll Predicts Hung Parliament

(22 Posts)
PartII Wed 31-May-17 10:23:52

For the first time since the election was announced, YouGov are predicting the Tories failing to win an overall majority.

AIBU to think that Corbyn was too hasty in declaring that he would never, ever form a coalition with the Lib Dems or the SNP? It seemed hypothetical when he said it, but there's a chance he might actually be in the position to make that decision now.

He's given himself quite the dilemma- the chance to lead a coalition government, but in doing so losing his persona of being a 'man of principle/ a man of his word.'

Or is this poll utter nonsense and he's just as unlikely to face this particular dilemma as he always was?

https://www.google.co.uk/amp/www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/tory-majority-poll-election-2017-latest-labour-hung-parliament-seats-theresa-may-conservatives-a7764271.html%3Famp

ImmortalityMyDarlings Wed 31-May-17 14:25:38

It will be enough that T May doesn't get a landslide and it will be enough that Corbyn doesn't resign. He's been surprisingly impressive. So that's why he is sticking to his principles. The LDs destroyed themselves through coalition. They won't want to make the same mistake and Labour know that.
But all these points about no coalition were made early on, when a landslide was all anyone expected.
Now it's different.
We will see them all change tack the day after the election.
But only if the Tories don't get enough seats.
Unlikely. It's only one poll. And polls suck.

LurkingHusband Wed 31-May-17 14:31:33

AIBU to think that Corbyn was too hasty in declaring that he would never, ever form a coalition with the Lib Dems or the SNP?

YABU for presuming they would want a coalition with Labour.

EpoxyResin Wed 31-May-17 14:39:53

Can I just correct you on a point of fact OP? This is not a poll. No-one has been polled. YouGov are best known for producing polls ...but this is not one.

This is a prediction based on certain interpretations of recent polls, however as it gives itself a huuuuge margin for error by saying "the Tories could do as well as X, or even as badly as Y" (X and Y being poles apart), I wouldn't so much call it a prediction as a statement of possibility.

Granted it's a possibility I like the sound of, but it isn't a poll.

monkey1978 Wed 31-May-17 14:46:30

I've just been polled by yougov about who I am going to vote for.

ImmortalityMyDarlings Wed 31-May-17 14:51:04

Conservative majorities...

Electoral Calculus 92
Fisher et al. combined approx. 100
Nigel Marriott approx 100+
ComRes approx 100+
Ashcroft Model 140+

YouGov Model - hung

At least, unlike 2015, there is some divergence of polling predictions.

Amanduh Wed 31-May-17 14:59:54

It's rubbish.
Polls are rubbish.
Final polls predicted Miliband was going to be heading Labour in to a hung parliament.
This isn't even a poll.

LassWiTheDelicateAir Wed 31-May-17 15:03:01

AIBU to think that Corbyn was too hasty in declaring that he would never, ever form a coalition with the Lib Dems or the SNP?

As a , I suppose I must now say , former Labour supporter, (thanks to the blessed Corbyn) the possibility of a coalition with the SNP means I would never vote Labour.

ImmortalityMyDarlings Wed 31-May-17 15:04:06

I think the OP is more interested in whether Corbyn would give in.

I wonder if actually he'd say no to a coalition given his approach...

ImmortalityMyDarlings Wed 31-May-17 15:04:35

Also... a coalition with SNP, is that actually possible?

DinnerIsServed Wed 31-May-17 15:08:19

Also... a coalition with SNP, is that actually possible?
I hope no-one would because that would give Sturgeon an even bigger opinion of her own importance.

dinosaursandtea Wed 31-May-17 15:13:55

I'd LOVE a Labour/SNP coalition. I'm in a safe SNP seat in Scotland - which is fine by me, they're the only party I trust to actually have Scotland's interests at heart and I'm far less keen on Scottish Labour than Corbyn and the overall party - but we have to get the Tories out. It's been a disastrous seven years and frankly I'd like a government that gave a shit. If Corbyn is faced with a coalition over no Labour-led government at all, he'll take a coalition.

drivinmecrazy Wed 31-May-17 15:18:49

Does Corby even want to become PM, either as the head of a coalition or an outright Labour government?
I very much doubt he does.
What I see is an effective principled activist being handed the poison chalice of power.
I imagine he feels far less empowered and less able to effect change as leader of his party. Given the top job would limit his principles and freedom of opinion even further.
I actually feel quite sorry for him (as a floating voter ) because I truly believe he is an honest, principled mam who had become shackled by his own rise through the ranks.
What we really need is Corby again on the back benches leading the checks and balances on both a Tory and Labour government.
God knows that's the one area of modern politics that is truly lacking.

MorrisZapp Wed 31-May-17 15:24:52

If Labour are seriously within sniffing distance of government then the SNP will be exposed for what it is.

Voting SNP in that circumstance would give the Tories four more years when labour seats would actually put them in power. I think it would prove they want independence more than they want rid of the Tories.

NoLotteryWinYet Wed 31-May-17 15:32:12

AIBU to hide under my bed until it's all over? SNP-Labour coalition led by JC is in my view about the worst outcome possible for this election.

2 parties with no regard for sensible, affordable policies, both ideologues. Hell in a hand basket.

Edsheeranalbumparty Wed 31-May-17 15:33:38

Did the so called 'Independent' put this on their FB page with a tag line 'Its on' by any chance.....yawn.

I do hope that Labour are closing the gap, I am voting for them. But The Independent has just become a total shit rag, the liberal lefty version of the Daily Mail appealing to the lowest common denominator. A lot of what I have seen from it recently (my FB is full of liberal lefties!) is just total bollocks, I don't get why my apparently intelligent friends give it so much credence.

NoLotteryWinYet Wed 31-May-17 15:33:59

i can't see how it would hold though - the SNP want a free market with free movement, JC is for managed migration. One or other of them would have to renege on a key manifesto commitment surely?

NoLotteryWinYet Wed 31-May-17 15:35:27

you've got liberal left friends? I have to come onto mumsnet to find my people, my FB is full of Corbyn supporting friends haranguing me to like pics of Corbyn showing how good he is with kids, 'vote labour or the NHS dies', 'share if you're not a selfish tory git' that sort of thing.

LassWiTheDelicateAir Wed 31-May-17 18:02:06

AIBU to hide under my bed until it's all over? SNP-Labour coalition led by JC is in my view about the worst outcome possible for this election

It really is.

specialsubject Wed 31-May-17 18:09:32

No poll counts except the one a week tomorrow.

oenophilia Wed 31-May-17 19:12:45

There's a lot of misunderstanding about polls. They are simply a reflection of which way people say that they will vote if called on to do so tomorrow. But the electoral systems are far more complex. For a start, you have to balance the results of respondents through weighting to adjust for likely turn out and how the turn out differs from the general population in terms of age, sex etc etc. And then we have a constituency system, which can throw that out completely. At the last election, the difference between the polls and the outcome was largely down to differences in the mix of people voting compared to previous elections, rather than any flaw in the actual polls. In the US elections, the share of vote was actually pretty accurate showing Clinton ahead, but it was the Electoral College system that turned that into a Trump minority victory. In the Scottish referendum, there's a possibility that the late poll showing Independence ahead actually motivated more remain voters to come out to vote than would otherwise have done. This YouGov projection is an attempt to drill down to constituency level and extrapolate onto it using the poll data. It came out with a wide range of possible outcomes and was hugely caveated. One of those outcomes was for a hung parliament. It might all be easier to predict if we had PR, although it does depend on what sort.

NoLotteryWinYet Wed 31-May-17 20:01:59

I canceled a work trip to be here on the night - I'm really hoping this isn't a triumvirate of crap things - Brexit, Donald Trump and a Corbyn-SNP coalition.

The only thing that'll keep me going is that the SNP and Corbyn's Labour getting into bed together would be a fiasco that would unravel and discredit the hard left and the SNP and cause anyone with sense to flee to the centre once more.

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