AIBU to be worried about Marine Le Pen's popularity?

[Pariswhenitdrizzles]

AIBU to be worried about Marine Le Pen's popularity in France?

I understand that she appeals to a lot of French voters - even more so, perhaps, after the terrorist attacks that have happened from January 2015 onwards.

At the moment, a lot of the French election coverage seems to suggest that she'll do very well (that she'll get through the first round of voting held tomorrow at the very least, and that she might win the election).

What does everyone else think? Has Marine Le Pen got a very good chance of winning the election, and how much of a chance do the Front National have of becoming the majority party in the French Parliament?

[Pariswhenitdrizzles]

There's been this article, for example, about her chances in the Telegraph today.

[Whosthemummynow]

I have seen alot of posts on this subject today, could you explain why you are worried about her being elected?

[JustAKitten]

YANBU. The rise of fascism in Europe worked so well before...

[VladmirsPoutine]

*Could you explain why you are worried about her being elected?^

Yes, please do explain why you'd be concerned about her being elected as she really does come across as a delightful character. Not a divisive preacher of hate and intolerance. I'm baffled too!

[toffee1000]

Whosthemummy the first round of the French elections is tomorrow. They do things differently to us. They have round #1, and if no one wins a majority then they'll have round #2 on 7th May.

[Whosthemummynow]

I'm asking a genuine question. I have no idea of French politics or the candidates!!
Sarcasm is obviously the way to educate othera though isn't it

[Pariswhenitdrizzles]

Whosthemummynow firstly because the Front National holds very far-right views.

Marine Le Pen has also said that if she is elected president, she'll make it more difficult for non-French citizens to French nationality and that she will take steps to withdraw France from the EU.

Her party is also anti-immigration and anti-Islam. Her niece Marion Maréchal-Le Pen (who is also involved in the Front National as an MP for the Vaucluse region in France) has said that French-born Muslims 'cannot be truly French because they do not share the Christian values and traditions of French society'.

[Pariswhenitdrizzles]

I think what makes her so dangerous is that she 'markets' and presents the Front National as a party who have the needs and wishes of France's population as their key reason for existing, if you like.

The Front National political campaign motto for 2017 is 'au nom du peuple' ('in the name of the people'). This is an attractive and supposedly inclusive slogan, yet it absolutely goes against some of the key policies of her party (as I outlined in my previous post). She's even removed her surname from much of her campaign material (for example, the address of her campaign website is Marine 2017), which disassociates her from her family and her father Jean-Marie Le Pen's controversial comments and ideas.

With regard to her party's policies and messages, for example, there was a 'pork festival' promised by Engelmann, the Front National mayor in Hayange.

[Pariswhenitdrizzles]

*"for non-French citizens to obtain French nationality", that should have said. Sorry.

[Pariswhenitdrizzles]

And the pork festival went ahead in Hayange.

[VladmirsPoutine]

Whosthemummynow My apologies. I'm somewhat of a news junkie and misjudged the tone of your post.

[Pigface1]

I'm no expert, but what I've read suggests she'll come first (but without a majority) tomorrow and will then lose to Macron in the run-off.

That makes sense if you think about it - while she'll presumably retain her vote share in the run-off, Macron is far more likely to be able to hoover up the remaining votes from the excluded candidates.

Fingers crossed that's what happens, anyway! Polls can be well wide of the mark as we know...

[MongerTruffle]

At least people won't be forced to vote for a "less bad" candidate like in the US election.

[Caprianna]

Its shocking that we have reached the stage in history (again) when National Front has become main stream

[DimsieMaitland]

In 2002 Jean Marie Le Pen came 2nd in the first round of voting with 16.8% of the vote. Chirac was first placed with 19.8% and there were 14 other candidates.

In the second round, Le Pen's vote rose slightly to 17.7% and Chirac polled over 82% as the supporters of the other candidates all voted against the National Front - including some fairly left wing parties who thought even Chirac was better than the far right alternative.

We can hope history repeats itself.

[MongerTruffle]

Its shocking that we have reached the stage in history (again) when National Front has become main stream

If FN win the French election, there's a chance that UKIP might gain more votes in the SGE.

[Code42]

There's a very good article in this weekend's Economist, charting the various permutations and odds of them happening. They seem to be backing Macron, but they explain quite well why it's very unlikely she'll do well in the second round. It seems convincing to someone who doesn't know that much about the French system. There's also a good explainer in the Guardian about her - it was the long read in the week sometime: it was very illuminating in general, especially about the almost incestuous relationship between politicians and journalists.

[nannyplumislostinspace]

The Front National is nothing new. They have always been relatively popular and Marine's father got to the second round in the presidential elections in the early 2000's. She will get through to the next round, but voters will vote for her opponent as the lesser of two evils. That's just the way it works. She is more popular than her father, but even the hardcore lefties turned out in mass to vote for Chirac to keep her father out. The same will happen in this election. I hope Macron wins, but I suspect Fillon will. He is a crook but I would vote for him to keep Le Pen out.

[Pariswhenitdrizzles]

nanny I hope Macron wins too! Fingers crossed...! I expect Fillon might though, as you say.

[Tapandgo]

Utterly terrifying how Fascism has crept to being acceptable politics. Lessons not learned from history - again

[WhiskyTangoFoxtrot]

Can't be Filon now.

It's Macron (centrist) v Le Pen through to the final vote.

[Siwdmae]

Terrifying. Fillon's supporters will hopefully support Macron now.