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To think weather forcasts should be banned?

(34 Posts)
11122aa Sun 12-Mar-17 10:44:25

Last night the weather for my area was rain all day so my Mum didn't do her washing. But its dry today and now none is forecast. So should the forecasts be banned and only revealed when there is a risk of dangerous weather?

Crankycunt Sun 12-Mar-17 10:45:44

Or just look out the window.

RafaIsTheKingOfClay Sun 12-Mar-17 10:51:08

Not sure why you'd ban them.

We could just expect people to use a bit of common sense and not treat them as though they are an absolute certainty.

11122aa Sun 12-Mar-17 11:24:40

Looking out the window does not help if you change plans the night before.

harderandharder2breathe Sun 12-Mar-17 11:28:11

Don't be ridiculous

People just need to take them as guidance not as gospel considering we live on an island with ever changing weather

Huldra Sun 12-Mar-17 11:36:30

A forecast of a weather front coming across with clouds, sun, scattered showers? You're going to have to take it as guidance and use your brain. Taking into consideration that we are on an island, the first bit of land that our prevailing wind hits, after picking up lots of water from that big patch of water.

It is pretty accurate though, or not wrong enough to ban grin I don't watch the forecast in the evening to see a nice sunny day with 25 degrees but wake up to snow.

OnionKnight Sun 12-Mar-17 11:39:07

We were predicted rain today but it's actually pretty nice outside.

Forecasts shouldn't be banned, common sense should be used.

HalfCarrot Sun 12-Mar-17 11:48:53

Oh my god DH, is that you? He's just been ranting about the BBC predictions hmm

WhirlwindHugs Sun 12-Mar-17 11:51:05

It's hardly ruined her life has it?

It might not be raining, but the temperature and wind predictions seem correct so 2/3 isn't bad. They're not psychic but it's still useful!

ZilphasHatpin Sun 12-Mar-17 11:53:21

Ban weather forecasts so people can just guess when to do their washing? grin you haven't thought this through have you? Weather forecasts do not exist to aid people in their laundry choices!

LuxCoDespondent Sun 12-Mar-17 11:56:33

YABU obviously. The clue is in the name, weather forecast. It's a prediction. An educated guess based on current and previous weather conditions.

Think of a weather forecast as being akin to a betting forecast published ahead of a horse race. It's a prediction of what will happen based on previous evidence. But sometimes a 100/1 horse wins.

Personally I don't like TV forecasts but prefer online ones like Accuweather which show the chance of rain as a percentage. If the chance of rain is less than 10% I'm fairly confident I won't need my coat, if it's 60% or higher then I know I'll probably get wet.

Take a look at the Met Office website next time, you can search for a particular place and it will tell you the chance of rain each hour, so your Mum can make a more informed decision. Or ring them up for advice, there is one lady who asks every week if she should put her washing out, apparently, though I think she must also like having a friendly voice to talk to.

PageNowFoundFileUnderSpartacus Sun 12-Mar-17 12:04:34

Or you could just ignore them and make plans based on the previous day's weather. That's how I decide what to wear for work each morning. Not at all a risky strategy. Obviously I've never worn boots and a raincoat on a glorious 25 degree day, or had wet feet from wearing sandals in the rain. Never. Occasionally I dress for how I want the weather to be. That works equally well, as you can imagine. Never wrong. Honest wink

I assumed the OP was an attempt at being lighthearted, because no one would seriously suggest banning forecasts because of some undone washing.

Huldra Sun 12-Mar-17 12:04:50

You could always suggest yur mum looks at the rain radar on the Met Office site or an app like Rain Alarm.

Laiste Sun 12-Mar-17 12:17:18

But - what would your mum have done if there were no weather forecasts because they were 'banned'? Looked out the window, bunged the washing on and hoped for the best probably.

Which is what she could have done this morning, like a million other people probably did confused

amispartacus Sun 12-Mar-17 12:22:10

Radio 4 Today programme:

Sunny in the South. Rain elsewhere

Helpful grin

AnyFucker Sun 12-Mar-17 12:29:19

A prediction of rain usually means it will rain at some point in the ensuing 24 hours

There will probably be a sprinkle this evening

I should be a weather forecaster...

Huldra Sun 12-Mar-17 12:31:12

We could ban them and see how the shipping and airline companies get on, if they're that useless. Cruise across he Atlantic anyone with no weather predictions?

Ifailed Sun 12-Mar-17 12:31:35

just get one of these:

AnyFucker Sun 12-Mar-17 12:33:11

Of course your mother's washing is the most pressing reason to have weather forecasts...

amispartacus Sun 12-Mar-17 12:35:59

You can sometimes predict the weather yourself by looking at the sky. If you have a belt of high cloud such as cirrus, it usually means that changable wet and windy weather is coming the next day.

That's my useful knowledge on the weather.

amispartacus Sun 12-Mar-17 12:41:13

We could ban them and see how the shipping and airline companies get on, if they're that useless

Boring weather fact. D-Day was postponed by a day because of the weather. The Allies were able to get their predictions before the Germans because they controlled the Atlantic.

Group Captain Stagg got the weather data based on readings from a lighthouse in Ireland. But there was controversy over the methods to predict the weather.

They predicted a few days break in the weather to help the landings take place.

It was a very risky prediction but delays would have been costly.

www.iwm.org.uk/history/how-d-day-was-delayed-by-a-weather-forecast

FeliciaJollygoodfellow Sun 12-Mar-17 12:41:42

Omg this is hilarious!

Yes let's ban weather forecasts because OP's mum decided not to do a load of washing.

Has she recently moved here from the Middle East or something, because otherwise I can see no other reason why she wouldn't have a contingency in place - like an indoor clothes horse or something.

Flippin 'eck grin

PageNowFoundFileUnderSpartacus Sun 12-Mar-17 12:55:21

A prediction of rain usually means it will rain at some point in the ensuing 24 hours.

Ooh! Ooh! I know this!

Weather forecasting is based on probability modelling. The apps and things that display the chance of rain as a percentage, e.g. 70% are reflecting that out of 100 probability models, 70 predicted rain. The other 30 did not. TV and radio forecasters, with limited time available, understandably tend to mention the trend indicated by the majority. So when rain is forecast and doesn't arrive, it means that one of the 30 models was correct rather than one of the 70.

<Here ends useless fact of the day>

amispartacus Sun 12-Mar-17 13:00:29

It's like an opinion poll. Our models predict that it's going to rain tomorrow with an 80% chance of that happening give or take 5% and I'm 97.5% confident of that figure.

But that prediction is for this area and it might well be different in this area which has its own micro climate. As we get more data, we can be more sure.

But of course, how accurate do you need your weather forecast to be?

What do you need from a forecast?

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