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House prices and rents would fall after Brexit

(21 Posts)
parrots Thu 19-May-16 10:53:48

www.theguardian.com/politics/2016/may/19/rents-property-values-drop-after-brexit-landlords-house-prices-eu-referendum

This would be presumably be good news?

Clandestino Thu 19-May-16 10:56:25

It also says this:

"But David Cox, the head of Arla, said tenants should not get too excited about rent falls, as buy-to-let landlords may quit the market en masse following a vote in favour of Brexit.

“The fact that rent costs would face downward pressure is both a blessing and a curse. While renters should face fair and reasonable prices, landlords need to be able to at least break even on any outgoings they have, such as a mortgage. If demand eases to such an extent that landlords cannot recuperate costs, we’ll likely see a mass exit from the market, which would then just have the opposite effect on demand as supply falls – and we’d be back to square one.”

If I were a landlord faced with lowered income from properties and you were renting, I'd simply sell the roof over your head to the first person interested in living there instead of being faced with a hassle of downward spiraling rent.

parmalilac Thu 19-May-16 11:04:09

I would think that most homeowners would not find that to be good news ... but good news for first-time buyers.

TFPsa Thu 19-May-16 11:05:57

falling rents & HPs would be good news for many, yes.

but Brexit is in large part an intergenerational thing, with most younger people pro-stay & many older people currently pro-leave.

falling HPs is the great fear of the Daily Express reading older generation, these 'threats' about falling HPs are intended to appeal directly to them. younger people are mostly pro-stay anyway.

scaryteacher Thu 19-May-16 18:22:41

House prices have fallen in the past when we were in the EU, and as long as you don't need to move, even negative equity isn't a problem, as house prices can and do pick up again

monkeypuzzlesandwich Thu 19-May-16 18:36:37

This is definitely a consideration for someone considering selling up. I was going to put off selling until next year but this kind of uncertainty makes that idea seem unwise.

TeradelFuego Thu 19-May-16 18:47:42

If many landlords sold up then that would be a good thing, as far as I'm concerned. Supply of cheaper housing in the market would increase, prices would drop, and first-time buyers would be in with a chance. Maybe things could go back to normal.

This is actually making me consider voting to leave, wasn't sure before but tended towards staying.

WreckingBallsInsideMyHead Thu 19-May-16 19:06:22

It more landlords are selling more people could buy so fewer people left renting

specialsubject Thu 19-May-16 19:35:46

The,article says that if we leave, the population of the UK would not increase as much as expected in the next ten years. Doesn't actually reduce numbers. So demand continues to outstrip supply.

The UK will be unable to cope by about 2050 on current projections. I won't be affected but unless taxes go up and there is massive investment in infrastructure, it won't be fun for those still alive.

LikeDylanInTheMovies Thu 19-May-16 19:47:18

I would think that most homeowners would not find that to be good news ... but good news for first-time buyers

I doubt it. Remember what happened to mortgage availability for first time buyers last time prices fell? If property prices fall month on month how willing will they be to offer high loan to value ratio mortgages that first time buyers need if they suspect the property will be worth less than the amount borrowed 12 months down the line?

SaucyJack Thu 19-May-16 19:53:04

Whether you think it's good news or not depends on where you live in the country- and more specifically whether renting over buying is a choice for average people on average incomes.

averylongtimeago Thu 19-May-16 19:54:49

There are currently 2.5 million Brits living in Europe, what's going to happen when most of them decide to head home as reciprocal health, tax and welfare agreements are abandoned?

ThroughThickAndThin01 Thu 19-May-16 19:55:58

Short term pain. Long term gain.

ChardonnayKnickertonSmythe Thu 19-May-16 19:56:59

How?

All these people living here in shared houses aren't going anywhere other than up the housing ladder.

LikeDylanInTheMovies Thu 19-May-16 20:09:24

But how much pain? With no guarantee things will be better in the long term. That's the Brexiters problem they have no credible economic plan. ''oh we'll be like Norway", "oh we'll be like Canada" no wait, ""We'll be like Switzerland". Everyone will be queing up to do a favourable trade deal with us in double quick time, ignore the world leaders who say they won't." "Our budget contributions to the EU will pay for everything"

It just doesn't add up.

2boysnamedR Thu 19-May-16 20:11:06

I am no expert but surely if we leave no one is going to be deported? Even if the European influx slows down there simply isn't the availability of new homes. It's a small island so even if we develop brown field, green belt were pretty packed in. I wonder how long before we go back to high rise flats where you can get more per plot.

OhIfIMust Thu 19-May-16 20:18:02

Nobody knows what impact leaving the EU will have on anything. Best guess, and indications from big business / global leaders is that uncertainty will have an initial negative impact on the value of the £, but who knows for how long or how negative. That's the issue - lots of uncertainty and no possibility of concrete answers as far as I can see.

Idliketobeabutterfly Thu 19-May-16 20:19:46

No one knows what impact staying will have either. By staying we are telling them we are fine with whatever they rules they make here on in.... A scary thought.

ThroughThickAndThin01 Thu 19-May-16 20:38:17

I'm not a Brexiter. But I think, on balance, we'd be better off out. No one knows what will happen if we leave. But no one knows what will happen if we stay. I see a huge implosion of the EU. Too many very different countries, with very different, wants, needs and itineries. It would be better to extricate ourselves now on our terms, than from a complicated acrimonious mess.

If we leave, I see a rocky 2 or 3 years economically until we find our feet and the divorce is finalised. If we stay, we won't have a rocky 2 or 3 years economically. Well, that's if the worldwide recession which is certain doesn't arrive in that time. But 10/20 years down the line we'll be overcrowded (900,000 new national insurance registrations David Cameron? No, something like 2,200,000 it has been revealed over last few years)

When we joined the EU it was with 6 other strong economically prosperous countries. Now there are 20+ something not so prosperous countries, with 4 or 5 much poorer countries queuing up to join, all heading for the richer countries like the UK. Something like 56 million Turkish people for example, (incidentally bordered with Syria), who will automatically have the right to come to the UK, no questions asked.

We need to control our borders imo, or the natural mass immigration from the EU will cause untold problems in a decade or so. As an aside, it also means we would have to limit our immigration further as well, from other countries if it's so EU biased.

That's my viewpoint, such as it is, anyway. The figures are possibly not accurate, but I think they're the general ballpark.

FuzzyOwl Thu 19-May-16 20:45:19

It might be good news for first time buyers but if prices fall, lots of people with mortgages will be in negative equity so won't sell. Therefore, people won't move up the property ladder and you'll see first time buyers unable to start families or living in cramped conditions because they can't buy anywhere to move to. At the same time, they won't be able to rent out their place and rent elsewhere as easily.

Vickyyyy Thu 19-May-16 21:08:47

Am I the only one that thinks noone knows anything at all about what will happen if we leave and its all just scaremongering and made up shit in the press for both staying and leaving PR?

I still don;t know which way I am going to vote yet. The one thing thats standing out for me really is the human rights laws and the fact that the Tories are currently in power. The thought of them being able to have free reign over every damn thing with noone above them to intervene is a bit..scary.

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