To think we are heading for another recession?(10 Posts)
Im no economist but this is just the general feeling that I'm getting.
I don't live in London but I live in an area where there is a lot of money and a lot of deprivation between town and neighbouring City. The job market here isn't great. I'm not confident I could get another job easily if I needed to. I keep hearing how businesses are struggling to get paid for their services and it seems to me that all retail jobs seem to be running on skeleton staff to keep costs down. The media state that it would only take an interest rate rise or two and people would be in serious difficulty with their mortgages and debt repayments. I have no idea how people can afford to keep paying what they do for houses.
These are just my layman feelings and I also suffer with severe depression so I really see the positive in things!
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I agree. Lots of signs of an impending recession. Redundancies keep being mentioned in the news (growing number of threads on here and moneysavingexpert) oil slump, profit warnings, bhs, Austin reed, Tata, huge personal debt levels nationwide, housing bubble, China situation.
Also, as they are cyclical, we are overdue one after 2007/2008.
I'm very gloomy about it.
I can feel it happening too. The construction industry is laying people off/slowing down round here. DH says his business is as quiet as pre-recession last time. It's brewing
When Brown swept everything under the carpet in 2008, he saved his skin by saving a Scottish bank but he did not address the problem.
There is still a huge amount of debt sloshing about in the system The Greeks are stitched up as are the Spanish and Portugese. Property prices are still unafordable. We have a housing shortage which feeds into unafordable housing and thus reducing disposable income to spend on consumer goodies to keep the economy going. The structural debt created by Brown using PFI to pay for shiny new schools is difficult to address and remains with us.
The conditions are in place for another recession. However, I suspect the merchant bankers will contrive to reshedule and restructure debt to keep the show on the road. When it goes tits up, the government will take on the debts and tax the innocent like thee and me to pay for the mess. (sorry, forgot that is what Brown did).
You may think I am not a fan of Mr Browns economic management. You would be correct.. However that does NOT mean I think Boy George is doing a good job.
I am not an economist but I do think there is something in the old biblical notion of seven years feast and seven years famine.
Of course, it doesn't follow that exact pattern but in my lifetime, there was a recession in the early 90s followed by a booming decade in the Blair years, followed by a double dip recession, followed by a period of apparent stability so I would say yes.
Really? I'm surprised..I was just thinking recently that our town is looking a hell of a lot better than it has done in years. Hardly any boarded up shops, new construction work going on everywhere after years of projects being abandoned half way through. Money seemingly no object to my customers. Property market seems lively. I admit the job situation seems very difficult , really hard for young people to get started , massive difference still from when I left university in 2001 and had my pick of jobs.
God I hope not!
At 50 now have lived through too many bloody recessions and as a contractor dh looses his job each time.
Our whole lives have been financially boom and bust and its incredibly stressful.
Hope you are wrong op but think you probably aren't
I hope not. We just about managed through the last one and things are still tight, as it is for probably 99% of the population.
I do think the gap between rich and poor is going to continue to get wider and it won't change until tax loopholes are shut and big companies are made to pay the tax they owe. Plus politicians need a pay cut or at the very least a pay freeze for the next decade. That would go some way towards further stabilising the economy and reducing the deficit so local councils, police, fire service and the NHS weren't cut any more than they already are.
The buy to let housing bubble will cause tears and all fairness I think the govement are right to remove tax relief from landlords and introduce additional stamp duty. I feel there needs to be more legal protection for good tenants whose home is reprocessed IF they have paid their rent on time. Maybe there needs to be some kind of compulsory reposession insurance to make sure that good tenants who have always paid on time can complete their tenancy.
Low interest rates and limited inflation is unusual. We live in strange times.
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