Indyref8

[grovel]

ItsAllGoingToBeFine, but who will be Prime Minister? Pretty unsatisfactory changing halfway through. My suggestion was that maybe Cameron, Clegg, Miliband et al agree on a team and step back themselves. It would make the end result a joint enterprise and could prevent years of feuding in rUK.

[chocoluvva]

Well done again Grovel.

ItsAll - my point too!

A R4 listener has just asked about the possibility of not becoming independent despite a yes vote in the event of unsatisfactory negotiations.

[ItsAllGoingToBeFine]

Re the EU:

www.publications.parliament.uk/pa/cm201213/cmselect/cmfaff/writev/643/m05.htm
gallery.mailchimp.com/3d8f589fda4fb7526a70254d4/files/e3c82843-2a9f-41af-a4e3-de3eeec55737.pdf

Are quite interesting.

but who will be Prime Minister? Pretty unsatisfactory changing halfway through
TBH I think the simplest thing all around would be to postpone the GE in the event of a Yes.

A R4 listener has just asked about the possibility of not becoming independent despite a yes vote in the event of unsatisfactory negotiations.

I really can't see that happening. There would be no mandate for it.

[WildThong]

Thread 8! (Place marking for later)

[Sallyingforth]

There will be so many Yes voters who find at the end of the negotiations that they haven't got what they were promised.

I suppose they will just have to suck it up. They won't be able to change their votes.

[ItsAllGoingToBeFine]

There will be so many Yes voters who find at the end of the negotiations that they haven't got what they were promised.

The only thing promised is to govern ourselves...

[LovleyRitaMeterMaid]

That's the only thing I'm expecting

[PrettyPictures92]

So got a quick question for you all (and please try to keep it as impartial and Un biased as you can). In the event of a yes vote the yes campaigners have said we can support the economy on tourism, whisky(?!) General exports and trading and oil.

Is this viable? Will it actually generate enough to sustain and independent Scotland or are they pulling figures out of thin air? I've not been able to find any documents to show the general figures. Thanks :)

[StatisticallyChallenged]

We're running a deficit at the moment even taking into account the geographical share of oil. I'm on a phone just now so can't paste the data on our deficit but it's towards the top of indyref 6.

[Raintown]

(In response to an earlier request to start a thread on the Unintended Consequences of Independence)

Alibet Good points Raintown. I can't believe so many otherwise-intelligent people are being borne away on a wave of utopian euphoria. It's crazy to think the rUK will do us any favours post a 'Yes' vote and who could blame them? Even if the politicians wanted to cut a deal on currency etc, the weight of public opinion would be against it. As J K Rowling said, this would be a very bitter divorce and our unique social & cultural union will be gone forever.

Raintown Unintended consequences: the people of the rUK will feel like scorned spouses and we know what irrational behaviour that can generate! This could have significant consequences for Jobs and Trade.

1. As a foreign country, the 1M Scots jobs dependent on English-based companies would be especially vulnerable. Similarly, the opportunities for Scots to take up jobs/promotions in England (there are currently 800,000 living and working there) would be severely reduced. Separation could restrict our childrens' aspirations for generations to come.
   
2. 60% of Scottish Exports go to England, principally Food & Drink. These are currently regarded as 'British' and find a ready market with English consumers. In the event of separation, the latter are likely to be develop a greater taste for Norwegian Salmon, French Mineral Water, NZ Lamb, etc rather than buy anything Scottish. This could be disastrous for our fledging economy, given that it's so dependent on this sector & the unpredictable Oil industry.

[OatcakeCravings]

Really! The English will suddenly start buying Norwegian salmon! Ha ha ha!! Snort!

[BMW6]

Well I am not Scottish and in the event of a Yes majority I will vote for the rUK Political Party that WON'T enter into CU (or any financial support) with iScotland.

I have nothing against iScotland and wish them well - but will not tolerate being a fall-back (or should that be fall guy) if it goes wrong. Each should look after their own post independance IMO.

Scotland cannot have it both ways, and if they have any honour and pride they would not seek rUK financial back up.

[grovel]

I don't think I'll be cross with Scotland and behave irrationally. I might though change some buying habits because I try to support our economy.

I'll find it harder to justify buying Aberdeen Angus or Scottish smoked salmon if there are (acceptable) alternatives from elsewhere in rUK.

My DH won't stop buying single malts from Scotland though.

[Tinkerball]

There will be so many Yes voters who find at the end of the negotiations that they haven't got what they were promised

The only thing that matters is the right to govern the country ourselves free from the prospect of ever having to be run by a Tory Government again. That will do for starters.

[ShakesBootyFlabWobbles]

I do think UK folk would buy UK goods over independent Scottish product when the choice of the two was in front of them.
I won't stop buying Scottish produce post independence, but would buy British over Scottish if there were two identical products, as I would support the UK economy first. No ill will, just how it is really. I currently buy British when I can and that will continue if Scotland isn't in the UK
The UK will - through no choice of our own - have massive costs of separation, bearing the Scottish debt, reduced value of pensions and impact to currency and markets due to uncertainty. We will have to think about supporting our own economy over Scotland's, as life will be more expensive and we will be in competition rather than trading partners.
There will be some people who will boycott Scottish products due to the split although I'd expect that to be in the minority.
To think nothing will change with UK trade levels seems incredibly naive.
I am still hoping for a no. I can't imagine the fall out post yes.

[Sallyingforth]

The only thing promised is to govern ourselves

That's the point!

The Yes campaign has been promising so much more than that. All the goodies in the Wishlist, that voters have been deceived into thinking they will get.

[TheBogQueen]

the elephant in the room
Tucked away in the Financial Times’ report earlier in the week was the giveaway. “Currency investors” would apparently be “particularly concerned by the UK’s persistent current account deficit if this were no longer offset by North Sea oil revenues.”

This is something of an understatement. The UK has run a deficit on its trade in goods every single year since 1983. We have imported more goods than we have exported every year for three decades. Including services and overseas earnings (the “current account”), the UK has run a deficit since the mid-1990s. Today, that deficit is close to record levels, at 4.4% of GDP.

[TheBogQueen]

people of the rUK will feel like scorned spouses and we know what irrational behaviour that can generate!

Oh get a grip FGS

[Sallyingforth]

BogQueen
That may be news to you, but all the relevant institutions have already factored it in.

[Tinkerball]

Not even if you change your name to Fuck Off England.

That made me Chunderella!

[TeamScotland]

Anyone else having mild panics that somehow they won't be able to vote on the day? Massive D&V bug for example?

Or they tick the wrong box by mistake?

I'll happy when it's the 19th.

[TheBogQueen]

Factored in what? The loss of oil? But Isn't that why the markets are going crazy? Isn't that why shiny Dave is bothering to come up to Scotland?