to be thinking about how to weather the next GFC?(8 Posts)
I think there'll be one within the next decade - before 2020 is my guess. Sub-prime lending and the rest of it hasn't stopped. CEOs still get mad bonuses. None of the Western countries have the money or even the credit rating to put stimulus packages into place again. Add to that, austerity measures are bad for the economy so there won't be much change of recovery, and whether you believe in the Oil Shock theory (I do) it's pretty much a no-brainer that crude oil will always get more expensive from here on in.
So, ideally, here is what I'm trying to work towards:
Own a property outright so it can't be repossesed.
Live as close as possible to our source of work.
Live in as small a property as is comfortable for our family (I have no problem with kids sharing rooms), to minimise running costs BUT
Have a garden which can be turned over to fresh produce.
Maintain employability rather than relying on DH's income to always be there - no big career breaks, keep skills updated, etc
The whole idea for me is to minimise running costs so that we can always live on only one income if we have to, make sure both of us are as employable as possible so either of us can take that role, and be as independent of fuel and interest rate prices as possible.
I do realise that I'm fortunate to have weathered the first recession as well as I have, and those of you struggling from paycheck to paycheck can't always think ahead. But if you are doing okay, you'd have to be completely mad not to take the current situation as a warning, surely?
What have I missed? Am I the only
loon one thinking like this?
And here I was feeling lonely! No, you're not the only one. I also agree with you concerning the Peak Oil effect (personally I think we're probably already past it). I also think you're being a bit optimistic giving us until 2020!
We are putting similar measures in place concerning the house and garden, putting some basics into the house (solar water and power, solar passive heating) and turning the garden into mostly fresh produce with other plants there purely as pollinators. We've also mentally allocated some house space to friends/family if they need to stay, depending on how bad the power situation gets.
The only other thing I'd suggest you start thinking of is having a disaster kit stockpiled somewhere - tinned stuff, pasta, washing powder - nothing that will go off too soon, but enough to keep you going once the lorries stop delivering to the supermarkets. Oh, and a few hens in the back garden - eggs while they're young and then casserole.
Oh hurrah, you are more of a loon than I am. Do you really think food supplies are going to be so compromised as to not be able to use supermarkets within the next few years? Really seriously?
TBH I'm not really thinking about disaster-proofing, although I'm not saying I shouldn't, just setting up my life so that we're not exposed to the financial elements.
Would love chickens. Stupid council rules won't let me have them.
Enough of a loon to have just realised I've put a plaster on the wrong finger (index, whereas my somewhat painful cut is on the middle one....)
I think we're heading for some kind of global Great Depression, yes. Whether there is going to be a supply chain/logistics problem I don't know but it worries me. As fuel prices go higher it will be more expensive to transport the food for sale than it is worth... exacerbated by financial meltdown and then yes I think there might be a problem. Within the next few years is unlikely but we happen to be in the fortunate position where we are planning our own house build so we are trying to future proof it as much as possible.
I am surprised on a daily basis why this isn't making headline news. The world is headed for the point of no return on a financial and environmental basis and nobody seems to care.
Keeping costs down is a no-brainer, with or without a recession , credit crunch or any other financial shock. The best way to keep costs down is to own your own home.
As far as Peak Oil and a future global depression is concerned, I disagree. The recent discoveries and exploitation of the tar sands in Canada and the US will provide as much oil as was ever pumped out of all of the gulf states and the US combined. There are truly massive deposits.
Not only that, but Canada has an equal amount locked up in the Arctic as well.
I am not gloomy about the future, although, if I were younger, I would seriously consider emigrating to Canada. That oil will bring a lot of wealth and jobs.
Going off a bit at a tangent, but oil from tar sands won't get us out of the energy problems - it takes one barrel to make 3 and currently uses too much fresh water to be scaled up. If nothing else, it'll massively raise the cost per barrel and add further to the economic crisis.
you're not unreasonable at all. That's global capitalism. Boom and bust are integral components of this particular economic system. That's the world as it is, and definitely not as it should be imo.
And yet people who should know better are still over-extending themselves, that's what amazes me. Again, I'm absolutely not talking about people who are struggling week to week, or those who have to live in expensive areas to find work as there's none in the cheaper areas, etc. But does anyone seriously think that another big recession won't happen, or just do people think it won't affect them?
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